Is Poker All Luck?

[Actuary 3]

{erased to protect the readers}

This is the worst strategy advice I have read in a long time.Welcome to FCP.

[Royal_Tour 0]

Its much much easier to lose.plain and simple. I am currently experience 2 back to back bad session. I'm stuck 3.5 buy ins. Nothing major, but Its the start of the week and its painfull since I basically wiped away my profit from last week in 2 sessions.Its ok, not the end of the world. I re-evaluate. make sure i'm still playing at the top of my game. re-focus. and go back for day 3.the main idea is to make XX aamount at XXXXX limit. To give you an idea, my personal financial expectations are 650 a week at 1/2 NL. live. I made 4,200 in the last 2 weeks, I ran very well. This week, 'm running bad. If things even out to me making 2500 this month, i'll just chalk it up to roughly 650 a week, like my expectation requires.

[antistuff 0]

I agree. The 1/2 is probably where you should stay. You get frustrated getting called by people with open ended but believe it or not some guys can make some sick reads on you the higher you go in stakes, and depending on the money they stand to make if they hit, they will call. You have to adjust to this, keep your bets low. I notice you did a LOT of "ALL IN" action.....maybe that's not the answer. Let them control your game in those moments and practice your reading skills. Nobody will put YOU all in on a draw, just remember. Let them call small bets and not get there. If they hit it, you can still fold and it's not a "bad beat" as much. Don't overvalue your hands before it's a made hand, etc. Some of the best players I konw at the Commerce Casino have a motto "check call". They make a lot of money off fish cause a lot of guys bet like crazy like yourself with top pair, etc.. Don't be that guy. Maybe check fold, maybe check call, don't raise too much, you will probably lose then. Check call is POWERFUL. The point I am making is, play your draws, and also, let people draw to cards (not for free of course). Don't fear them, use them to your advantage and duck out when you know you are beat. Too many times I see guys make huge flop bets when there's a 4 card flush draw out. When flush draw calls (cause the odds are probably there with 2:1 and 50% chance of hitting eh?) the original better gets angry "I was trying to bet you off that".....lol. Well, then check, let the drawer define the value and bet (or check), see a card, when they don't make their flush now raise the ante a bit and make a pot size bet maybe. Only a donkey would call at this point with only 1 card to peel still.....Usually, when I have this type of trouble I start playing tournaments - limits my losses as i can cool down and get my head together, make sure I am still in the game etc. As an amateur, I just expect to make some money or break even. As I lose, I question whether I should be wasting my time with this hobby - it costs me a lot of time, it shouldn't cost money on top of it. Anyway, sorry for your bad luck. Sad to say, poker is mostly luck :-) You just try to keep your feet on the advantage side and hopefully over time you win. I do believe you can make all the right decisions and constantly lose, because that's life. Poker is still gambling. So for you, maybe just a break is the best thing you can do. More than 3 days too =). I have taken 30-60 day breaks before and come back healthy. You gain a new perspective after a break.

i hate to break this to you but you couldn't be more wrong about everything that you just posted about. i wouldn't be expecting to make some money or break even all that often if i was you. sorry.

[Frez 0]

your name is LUCKBOXenough said

Please click the reply button only, not quote then reply. No point in making every thread you read 18 screens long.

[psujohn 0]

{the opposite of everything you said}

FYP

[mdroc1 0]

I know how you feel. I have been playing poker since 1999. Between 1999 and 2006, I had never had a massive hand win to an unlikely nuts. Eg, if the board was Q-5-8-5-2 and I had Q-Q, I never once ran into pocket fives. In mid 2007, I had my first significant one. It was no limit hold'em and when all the money went in, I had K-K on a board of Ks-Js-5h. The turn was a 5s and the river was a 9s. My opponent had Qs-10s, but I figured that I had been beaten by two-outers before so I'll take that.From December 2007 to Jan 17 2008 (my last session), I have had a "top full" (eg - A-A on board of A-4-9-9-5) and run into quads on four occasions. I believe it's nothing more than an uneven distribution of luck. For some players, they run into quads like that maybe once year or once every two years. I went on nearly seven years without it happening once and then it all came at once. The good news, of course, is this sometimes works in your favour and you go on almighty runs. While those pots cost a lot by themselves, I've actually had six weeks of bad "cards". I've spent hours throwing away hands like 9-4, J-2, 8-3, over and over. On the rare occasion I was dealt a hand like KQ, I either ended up having to fold preflop with a raise and reraise in front of me; or alternatively, i'd simply miss the flop altogether. I've had a few suck outs that have cost me and over about 18 sessions, I've only left profiting three times. Through experience, I've found that the best way to deal with it is to simply take a good long break and focus on work...etc.. The most success I've had weathering bad card runs is when I've taken a good few weeks off, then had a game, fresh and free to play my game. The worst I've had is when I've simply continued to play over and over, thinking to myself that a big winning session is only round the corner. I think it's best to just leave it, cop the loss and do a bit of a "start over" in a few weeks or months. Unfortunately, way too many books talk only about maximising your gains and limiting the risk of being drawn out. However, anyone can move all in with aces and double up. Anyone can draw to a nut flush, hit it and win a big pot. However, 90% of players cannot manage losses at all. They throw money down the toilet when they are in the midst of a bad run. They start the session either on slight tilt or playing on scared money. Sometimes they jump up to bigger and tougher games with the view that they can have one or two winning sessions and they'll square the ledger. Most of the time, they completely abandon game selection principles. Good soft and easy games are usually the ticket in my view. And the worst of the worst is when they get a reasonable profit in front of them and then lose it trying to square out ten losing sessions in one hit. So there isn't so much "luck" involved. It's more that there is an uneven distribution of beats and winning sessions. In early 2007, I had about 20 winning sessions out of about 25. My opponents seemed simply unable to outdraw me. I wasn't complaining about the distribution then, so I really shouldn't complain much when it runs the other way.But there is one luck-based theory that I often subscribe to. If I am sitting at a table where a player is on one of those unbelievable rushes, I usually leave. If they are having a super "lucky" night, I don't want a bar of it. They are the sort of games where you finally get your great opportunity (with top set on the flop) and Mr. Lucky finds a straight on the river. I don't need to prove anything at the poker table so that's my little piece of superstition I suppose

[mtdesmoines 3]

... umm, stop tilting and have good varience....

This makes me laugh.

[bigcoled 1]

All I will say without reading this post is... Yes, poker is all luck...it's all whether the other player gets lucky or not and your hand holds up or not...

[Frez 0]

All I will say without reading this post is... Yes, poker is all luck...it's all whether the other player gets lucky or not and your hand holds up or not...

I've heard this logic before - it went something like this:"no hand is a big favourite. They are all 50/50 - they either win or they lose"

[bigcoled 1]

I've heard this logic before - it went something like this:"no hand is a big favourite. They are all 50/50 - they either win or they lose"

poo... I mean get your money in ahead... either your hand is going to hold up, which if your ahead is profitable, or they're going to suck out...but as long as you're ahead you should in the end come out ahead... But varience is a biatch and people do get lucky...