Time To Move Up?

[snooptoddd 0]

So I started playing the $3.40 HORSE turbo SNGs a few weeks ago and have been killing these games.32 played, 9 wins, 4 second, 5 third, 47.8% ROI.Admitedly, I took my first "shot" at one of these (if you can call a $3.40 tournament that) when my roll was pretty short, only around $15, but I managed to win two in a row, which made the buy-in much more comfortable. I've since built it up to more than 20 buy-ins, the amount most say you should have at a bare minimum for SNGs.Here's my question ... given my results at the $3.40 level, do I have a big enough edge to take a shot or two at the $6.50 HORSE turbos, even though I only have about 12 buy-ins at that level? Or should I keep grinding away at the $3.40s until I get up to 20 $6.50 buy-ins? I feel like the variance in these is pretty low, given that 3/8 people cash.

[GabeTheKid 0]

TP/MM

[simo_8ball 0]

It all depends on how averse you are to redepositing or moving back down, basically.

[SCS 0]

So I started playing the $3.40 HORSE turbo SNGs a few weeks ago and have been killing these games.32 played, 9 wins, 4 second, 5 third, 47.8% ROI.Admitedly, I took my first "shot" at one of these (if you can call a $3.40 tournament that) when my roll was pretty short, only around $15, but I managed to win two in a row, which made the buy-in much more comfortable. I've since built it up to more than 20 buy-ins, the amount most say you should have at a bare minimum for SNGs.Here's my question ... given my results at the $3.40 level, do I have a big enough edge to take a shot or two at the $6.50 HORSE turbos, even though I only have about 12 buy-ins at that level? Or should I keep grinding away at the $3.40s until I get up to 20 $6.50 buy-ins? I feel like the variance in these is pretty low, given that 3/8 people cash.

32 sngs is such a tiny sample size.

[kkot 0]

You could definitely take a 2 or 3 buyin shot at the $6.5 SNG's and if that doesn't work out move down again.

[Actuary 3]

It all depends on how averse you are to redepositing or moving back down, basically.

u r wise

[snooptoddd 0]

I'm working on clearing a deposit bonus too, so I may take a shot or two and see how I do (I'll get one more FPP for the $6.50). I've got plenty to feel comfortable in the $3.40s even if I lost two $6.50s in a row ...I know 32 is a pretty small sample, but considering how high the ROI is, I can't imagine that it's not statistically significant enough to say that I'm not a winning player.

[SCS 0]

I'm working on clearing a deposit bonus too, so I may take a shot or two and see how I do (I'll get one more FPP for the $6.50). I've got plenty to feel comfortable in the $3.40s even if I lost two $6.50s in a row ...I know 32 is a pretty small sample, but considering how high the ROI is, I can't imagine that it's not statistically significant enough to say that I'm not a winning player.

I don't think that 32 is nearly enough to determine if you're a winning player.Not that I'm saying you aren't, just that the sample size doesn't prove it.

[Actuary 3]

I don't think that 32 is nearly enough to determine if you're a winning player.Not that I'm saying you aren't, just that the sample size doesn't prove it.

What if he won 28 of them and got second in 3 and 3rd in the other

[SCS 0]

What if he won 28 of them and got second in 3 and 3rd in the other

Then I guess it would be one of the rare times that the sample size is large enough to determine if he's a winner or not.

[Actuary 3]

Then I guess it would be one of the rare times that the sample size is large enough to determine if he's a winner or not.

what we can say now though, is that given a wide enough confidence interval, he is likely a winning player.IOW, "We are 18% confident that his ROI > 5%" long term.

[potatoman 0]

TP/MM

[eYank 0]

TP/MM

Wow i havent seen that phrase in a while

I'm working on clearing a deposit bonus too, so I may take a shot or two and see how I do (I'll get one more FPP for the $6.50). I've got plenty to feel comfortable in the $3.40s even if I lost two $6.50s in a row ...I know 32 is a pretty small sample, but considering how high the ROI is, I can't imagine that it's not statistically significant enough to say that I'm not a winning player.

And I think that is a good idea, see how u do in 2 or 3 6.50s, and du have built up enough money on the wins that it wont destory u if u lose all 3GL

[SCS 0]

what we can say now though, is that given a wide enough confidence interval, he is likely a winning player.IOW, "We are 18% confident that his ROI > 5%" long term.

Orrrrrrrrrrrr....we can say that he is a winning player, but has been on an insane run. And when he eventually fails to cash in a couple of sngs, he'll actually become a losing player, because he's not psychologically used to not cashing. If that makes sense.