kurt's jack 10 at the wpt........

[Guest]

Actually, I'm bored, so I'll play with numbers a little more.Adjusting for a 9k pot instead of a 7k pot. And now no more small bet on the river, you push if an apparent blank comes.(1) Calling on turn, pushing on river with apparent blankIf he calls the river 100% of the time that he doesn't make the boat77% of the time you end with 41k16% of the time you end with 16k7% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournamentAverage of 34k Out of tournament 7%If he calls the river 75% of the time that he doesn't make the boat58% of the time you end with 41k19% of the time he folds and you end with 25k16% of the time you end with 16k7% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournamentAverage of 31k Out of tournament 7%If he calls the river 50% of the time that he doesn't make the boat38.5% of the time you end with 41k38.5% of the time he folds and you end with 25k16% of the time you end with 16k7% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournamentAverage of 28kOut of tournament 7%If he calls the river 25% of the time that he doesn't make the boat19% of the time you end with 41k58% of the time he folds and you end with 25k16% of the time you end with 16k7% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournamentAverage of 24k Out of tournament 7%(2) Pushing on turnIf he never folds77% of the time you end up with 41k23% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournament.Average of 31.5kOut of tournament 23%If he folds 25% of the time25% of the time you end up wtih 25k58% of the time you end up with 41k17% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournament.Average of 30kOut of tournament 17%If he folds 50% of the time50% of the time you end up wtih 25k38.5% of the time you end up with 41k11.5% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournament.Average of 28kOut of tournament 11.5%If he folds 75% of the time75% of the time you end up wtih 25k19% of the time you end up with 41k6% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournament.Average of 26.5kOut of tournament 6%After looking this over, even if you don't think he'll call the push on the river all that much, call the turn and pushing on the river looks very good to me. I guess it all comes down to how often you think he will call on the turn and how often you think he will call on the river.

I don't think anyone even mentioned about having a jack or a 10 come on the river. If you call the 3k bet to see the river, you really think he is gonna pay you off for 16k if there is a 4 card straight on the board and he only has trips? You got your money in with the best hand, next time you won't be as unlucky. Nice job man.

That's a good point and it does change things somewhat, but all it really does is make him more likely to fold to the river bet and I've included a few different possibilities here, so you can just go by a lower percentage. I'm not going to factor in the exact odds of that happening and how it will change how much you'll win.

[SeattlePoker 0]

best post yet. damn statistics! I still think Daniel likes Kurt's play.

[Abbaddabba 0]

Actually, I'm bored, so I'll play with numbers a little more.Adjusting for a 9k pot instead of a 7k pot. And now no more small bet on the river, you push if an apparent blank comes.(1) Calling on turn, pushing on river with apparent blankIf he calls the river 100% of the time that he doesn't make the boat77% of the time you end with 41k16% of the time you end with 16k7% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournamentAverage of 34k Out of tournament 7%If he calls the river 75% of the time that he doesn't make the boat58% of the time you end with 41k19% of the time he folds and you end with 25k16% of the time you end with 16k7% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournamentAverage of 31k Out of tournament 7%If he calls the river 50% of the time that he doesn't make the boat38.5% of the time you end with 41k38.5% of the time he folds and you end with 25k16% of the time you end with 16k7% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournamentAverage of 28kOut of tournament 7%If he calls the river 25% of the time that he doesn't make the boat19% of the time you end with 41k58% of the time he folds and you end with 25k16% of the time you end with 16k7% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournamentAverage of 24k Out of tournament 7%(2) Pushing on turnIf he never folds77% of the time you end up with 41k23% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournament.Average of 31.5kOut of tournament 23%If he folds 25% of the time25% of the time you end up wtih 25k58% of the time you end up with 41k17% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournament.Average of 30kOut of tournament 17%If he folds 50% of the time50% of the time you end up wtih 25k38.5% of the time you end up with 41k11.5% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournament.Average of 28kOut of tournament 11.5%If he folds 75% of the time75% of the time you end up wtih 25k19% of the time you end up with 41k6% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournament.Average of 26.5kOut of tournament 6%After looking this over, even if you don't think he'll call the push on the river all that much, call the turn and pushing on the river looks very good to me. I guess it all comes down to how often you think he will call on the turn and how often you think he will call on the river.

I don't think anyone even mentioned about having a jack or a 10 come on the river. If you call the 3k bet to see the river, you really think he is gonna pay you off for 16k if there is a 4 card straight on the board and he only has trips? You got your money in with the best hand, next time you won't be as unlucky. Nice job man.

That's a good point and it does change things somewhat, but all it really does is make him more likely to fold to the river bet and I've included a few different possibilities here, so you can just go by a lower percentage. I'm not going to factor in the exact odds of that happening and how it will change how much you'll win.

The value of being able to fold on the river if it paired up a second time would far exceed the marginal difference in value gained from him being more likely to call a push on the turn than river (if there even is a difference to begin with).

[looshle 6]

What about the times the board 2 pairs on the river?

[Guest]

What about the times the board 2 pairs on the river?

It's already in there. On the call the turn push on river scenarios, its that 16% of the time where you fold to a river bet and end up with just 16k.

[Guest]

The value of being able to fold on the river if it paired up a second time would far exceed the marginal difference in value gained from him being more likely to call a push on the turn than river (if there even is a difference to begin with).

That seems to be what the statistics are saying, at least in my opinion. I believe that he's going to call the river just a little less than the turn, but that's definitely a point you can debate.

[jayboogie 0]

I just didn't like slowplaying the hand on the flop, this is a flop that usually hits players, even if there was no raise. If you raise here, your going to get action from AJ, AT, KQ, hands like that. What about the time that you don't push your hand fast and the other player is holding AJ or AT, hits their 1 card for a straight and it ends up being a chopped pot, because you let them catch up cheap. Again pushing on the turn is debatable and I can see where you want to get all your money in with the best hand, but keep in mind your putting your tournament life on the line and there is always a slight possibility your drawing dead to somebody that made a boat on the turn. Also, any hand he calls you with is going to have outs to it, matter of fact if he held AT or AJ, he'd have an additional T or J as out for a chopped pot as well. Also I don't recall being told the suits on the board, was it a rainbow?? What was the turn card's suit? Was the other player's cards suited? These are also things to consider on this hand. When you slowplay, your basically saying here catch up for free and if you get lucky, you can bust me.

[apple11 0]

listen we can analize this hand all we want but the fact is he played it right and was just very unlucky

[MrNiceGuy 0]

xtpro,For simplicity, I took out the "if he calls x% of the time", and reduced your numbers to reflect simply the absolutes (since either he will call or he won't - I think the extra numbers are useful, but they also overcomplicate the situation somewhat). I also added what your average stack size would be, given that you survive.--------------------------------------------------------------(1) Calling on turn, pushing on river with apparent blankIf he calls the river after he doesn't make the boat77% of the time you end with 41k16% of the time you end with 16k7% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournamentAverage of 34kOut of tournament 7%If you survive, you will have on average 36.5kIf he folds the river after he doesn't make the boat77% of the time you end with 25k16% of the time he folds and you end with 16k7% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournamentAverage of 22kOut of tournament 7%If you survive, you will have on average 23.5k(2) Pushing on turnIf he calls77% of the time you end up with 41k23% of the time you end with 0k and are out of the tournament.Average of 31.5kOut of tournament 23%If you survive, you will have 41kIf he folds100% of the time you end up wtih 25kAverage of 25kOut of tournament 0%You always survive and will have 25k-------------------------------------------------------------------So, if you think he will fold on the turn, then you should push on the turn. (If he would fold on the turn, then I think he would definitely fold on the river unimproved. So by pushing the turn, you always survive, and you'll win more money.)By extension, if you think he would fold unimproved on the river, then you must push on the turn (regardless of whether he would call on the turn or not). The only drawback is that if he would be willing to call the turn but not the river, then you're less likely to bust out if you just call. But when you push the turn, most of the time you will still survive, and you'll be in much better shape chipwise when you do.But, if you expect that your opponent would call on the river unimproved, calling the turn is obviously a much better choice by a wide, wide, margin.So if you think that's it's fairly likely for your opponent to hang in on the river with just the three aces, you should definitely call on the turn.But, if you think he's extremely capable of making the good laydown on the river, you should push on the turn.--------------------------------------------------------------------------Now I think that the proper play if you have no idea whether your opponent would call on the river or not, then you should just call, since it appears that the benefit of calling versus pushing when he will call on the river is larger than the benefit of pushing versus calling when he won't. So okay, I now agree with those of you who advocate calling - I now think calling is the best play when you don't have a good feel for whether or not your opponent would call on the river.But, I still think that Kurt made the correct play in the tournament, since based on what he said, it sounds like Alan very nearly folded on the turn, which leads me to believe that he almost certainly would've folded on the river.

[SapphireTiger 0]

Alan Boston looks startled all the time

[MrNiceGuy 0]

Let me add that this was all based on the assumption that the read that Alan has Ax is correct. I think that his next most likely hands are KQ, and J10. Less likely, but possible, are KJ, K10, QJ, Q10, and AK. (AA, KK and QQ are also possible, but very unlikely.) I highly doubt Alan would fire twice with anything worse than these.So against all of these (other than AK, AA, KK, and QQ), you definitely want to push on the turn, since he will easily fold them on the river unimproved (except J10). And if he is splashing around with something like KJ, or if he has J10, and you check/fold to a Q on the river, it's a disaster.So I think these possibilities improve the benefits of a push in this situation (unless you think he's likely to have slowplayed a premium hand preflop).

[PrtyPSux 0]

listen we can analize this hand all we want but the fact is he played it right and was just very unlucky

I actually think that the fact is he didnt play it wrong, the original statistic poster I think was dead on, they are both correct plays IMO, calling might be slightly better than pushing, but considering the fact that you are playing a pro, who is very capable of making big laydowns. I think pushing was a good play on that spot. I really think its either way really, and I dont think anyone could possibly calculate all of this (all 7 pages) in less than a minute with the adrenaline going full speed and the pressure on. I guarantee NO ONE that posts in this forum other than Daniel, josh, and Jennifer can do this, even if you just call, you didn't calculate all of the possibilites. I think Kurt did what he could, if he wouldve made it to day 2 and busted we'd have a 7 page thread on how he missplayed THAT hand.. just IMO. P.S. I just rented the WPT dvds and Im watching the Borgata open with David O. and Mortenson, damn is that guy Insane, he bets EVERYTHING! to your left that must have SUCKED!

[elkang 0]

Well, Smash has me just about convinced. Almost. Then I read the thread over again. Three times. I'm convinced his is the right play. There are a number of significant arguments made that need to be addressed before going into any aggressive turn play. The only factor that would change the situation is if your oppenent had raised to all-in at any juncture. There are times I would advocate or suggest a possibility of the all-in turn, but this is not one of them. I myself stand corrected, and see that although an all-in is not bad (vs. a fold), it is not optimal.

[elkang 0]

Seriously, just read Smash's stuff and ignore the extraneous banter. The principles are pretty straight forward, bu I 'm looking forward to hearing David's response. And if Daniel could respond as well as to some of the tournament options if he was presented with that situation.

[elkang 0]

Alan Boston looks startled all the time

We need to hear his take on the situation. Obviously he had a bad read and was surprised by Kurt's move.Again I don't fault SuitedUps's move but it can be easily viewed as not optimal for a lot of situations (where he is beat or susceptible). Still any bad beat is deserving of sympathy. Next time the miracle will be on your side!

[wrto4556 0]

what were the blinds at and what were the two stack sizes?

[steve7stud 0]

I almost started a new post AGAIN, lol. I just came back from a lengthy drive, and for some reason this hand popped back into my head.I haven't spoken to anyone about this hand, and I'm fairly sure that Daniel has not responded. Frankly, at this point, I don't care if he and I agree or disagree.MOVING ALL IN ON THE TURN IS CORRECT. This is my opinion. The goal of playing a tournament is to WIN, not SURVIVE. If you're in a pot with someone and they call your bet TWICE. You should definitely be asking yourself, if you're beat.The reason that check raising all in on the turn is CORRECT, is because you flopped gin, you assume on the turn that the other player has outs to call your bet when you ARE a favorite.He probably will NOT call your bet on the river, if he does not improve. I know this might be tought to grasp, but think about it...... WHAT CAN HE BEAT? Even the player sitting next to Kurt called out his hand before he flipped it over, lol. Most experienced pros will be PRAYING for a chop if you bet the river.I had what I considered to be a moment of clarity, don't ruin it for me, lol. I apologize for the caps. Again, if you disagree that's fine. We are all entitled to our opinions. I am one of the few people who genuinely means that. I've stated my opion pretty clearly here though.

[wrto4556 0]

The goal of playing a tournament is to WIN, not SURVIVE.

That's controvercial. Do you see why?Anyway, Kurt had too many chips to be all in. He was all in against a bigger stack. And could have easily avoided disaster and still had 30xBB left. That is far from short-stacked.imo, if you're raising the turn, kurt, pot it. There is no reason to go all in unless you think he is going to fold trip aces....which is about never. Sure, you could double up, but you can also be knocked out. One is more important than the other.

[MrNiceGuy 0]

imo, if you're raising the turn, kurt, pot it.

I'm convinced that this is probably the actual best play - the pot facing Kurt was 9000, and it was 3500 to call. So if he makes it about 10,000 to go, he still has 6000 chips left in case the board pairs. This would results in the best of both worlds - it would still force him to make a mathematically incorrect call to stay in the hand, and at that point he would certainly be priced into calling unimproved on the river.Of course, if Kurt makes such a raise on the turn, I wouldn't be surprised if Alan just re-raises and puts him all-in right there anyway - in this case it would be the same as if Kurt had just gone all-in.

There is no reason to go all in unless you think he is going to fold trip aces....

I think everyone agrees on this,

....which is about never.

but we don't all agree on this (steve and kurt at least have said they think there's a good chance he would fold on the river, and I'm inclined to agree).

Sure, you could double up, but you can also be knocked out. One is more important than the other.

Yes and no - yes, surviving is most important, but if you survive with a severely short stack, you're going to be desperately looking to double up anyway, and you'll probably have to take the risk in a situation that is at best a coin flip. So I like taking the shot here, when you're a big favorite.

[wrto4556 0]

Yes and no - yes, surviving is most important, but if you survive with a severely short stack, you're going to be desperately looking to double up anyway, and you'll probably have to take the risk in a situation that is at best a coin flip. So I like taking the shot here, when you're a big favorite.

Right here you have enough chips to avoid having to be all in. When you are short stacked that's not the case.

[PrtyPSux 0]

The goal of playing a tournament is to WIN, not SURVIVE.

That's controvercial. Do you see why?Anyway, Kurt had too many chips to be all in. He was all in against a bigger stack. And could have easily avoided disaster and still had 30xBB left. That is far from short-stacked.imo, if you're raising the turn, kurt, pot it. There is no reason to go all in unless you think he is going to fold trip aces....which is about never. Sure, you could double up, but you can also be knocked out. One is more important than the other.

u make a good point, THAT would probably be the best play. rather than calling.

[Smasharoo 0]

u make a good point, THAT would probably be the best play. rather than calling.Yeah, maybe. There're reasons I don't think it is, but one thing at a time. It's certainly better than moving in.

[PrtyPSux 0]

What are the reasons? IMO its better than smooth calling because he doesnt give him a free card, and it's also better than pushing all in. The only thing that would be in question I think is if Kurt would laydown a 36k pot for 6k more, on the river. If he has the discipline ( which wouldnt take much really if the baord reads AAQKK) then betting the pot on the turn would be a great play. It would be an almost tournament ending blow to his stack, but he'd be alive. still though, I doubt many of us amateurs could think this clearly in the moment. :think:

[Guest]

steve7stud wroteMOVING ALL IN ON THE TURN IS CORRECT. This is my opinion. The goal of playing a tournament is to WIN, not SURVIVE. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------hmmmm...I wonder about that comment steve, I think kurt might of liked making it in the money, 30k is'nt alot of money to some pros,but I think most people on here could use 30k....I played alot of MMT online this winter and twice I was down to fumes 120 chips with 100 players left blinds at 25/50, and made it to 17th.another time I had 180 left with blinds 50/100 and 122 players left and made final table.Now I know the CALIBER is not the same as what kurt was facing, but it makes you feel good knowing there's still hope. I posted on this thread already and stated that IMO that calling was the correct play.And I also said that if kurt thought for sure that raising all-in was going to get alan to fold then pushing the turn was the correct play.The thing about this hand is If kurt is 99.9% sure alan has an ACE which I think he did,and kurt is not 100% sure that alan's going to fold to his all-in push then the danger is that the board pairs on the river (which it did) very unfortunate.Just my 2cents.

[Suited_Up 2]

Yes and no - yes, surviving is most important, but if you survive with a severely short stack, you're going to be desperately looking to double up anyway, and you'll probably have to take the risk in a situation that is at best a coin flip. So I like taking the shot here, when you're a big favorite.

This is what I have been trying to get across.And I agree a raise is a better choice than a call, but I didn't think just raising would make him seriously think about folding. Say I raise his 3.5k to like 10k. Gives me 6 left, which commits me on the river, and I am quite sure he would call there. If I go all in, it's sending a clear message that I have the best hand and he's gonna need to draw out on me. Much more likely to get a fold. And for the people arguing about calling again, and waiting to see whether the river pairs the board again.... that is called PLAYING LIKE A BITCH!!!!You can't sit there in fear of a few cards when you have the best hand, just because it might go wrong. Stop being such pussies!