sanemancrazywrld

Winning powerball is way more than a billion times more likely than an underpair beating an overpair at least 85 times in 150 tries.

You forgot the (1-.1983)^65 term, so the correct probabilities are all smaller than what you have. My original post gives the correct overall probability, assuming each one has a 1/5.2 chance of occurring (which is of course not exactly true).

Agreed. He pushed what 580 (ish) chips into a pot of 30 or so? There is very little reason to do that if you have the 8. Especially against another stack of that size... seems like a bluff... and a fairly bad one.If you're going to get called instantly by AK, a massive jam by the 8 is a pretty good play.

0.159%4.2 : 1 = .238 = 23.8%.238 / 150 (sample size) = 0.00159 * 100 = 0.159 %Your the supergenious here so how did u come up with 3.2E-29 or something like that.Go to college. Understand numbers. Probability is real not made up.I never said anything about being a supergenius, or genius for that matter. I tried to get into Dupont Community College in Reading, PA, but I just didn't have the grades. I'm pretty amazed that you could be so arrogant about all of this, and be so incredibly far off on how to actually calculate the probability. I mean, in your "probability calculation", you didn't

Um again NO. How do you have a feel for probability? Its freaking math man. Maybe you should go to college and learn something about mathematics. Math is the one science with an absolute answer. And the probability is 0.159 %. Fact.First, you say the probability is .159, now you're saying it's .159%. Well, which is it? It's not surprising that someone with no feel for probability doesn't think it's possible to have a feel for probability.You think that in 150 runs, all in preflop, with 2 pocket pairs, the chances that the underpair beats the overpair at least 85 times is .159? If this

Um no. The actual probability is 0.159. Where did take you probability class. I'll make sure not to attend.If you think that .159 is anywhere near the chances that an underpair beats an overpair at least 85 times out of 150, you have no feel whatsoever about probability. Mocking me when you are clearly wrong says something about you.

Why? If in the next 150 KK vs AA situations on Party, the KK won *every* time, would that not indicate something was very possibly wrong? Extremely bizarre happenings in small sample sizes can give just as much evidence as less bizarre happenings for large sample sizes. The probability of an underpair beating an overpair at least 85 times out of 150 (based on your 4.2-1 estimate of the odds) is 3.86437e-024, or .00000000000000000000000386.) I pretty much guarantee this didn't happen when the OP was "keeping track". So, I stopped reading when he said an underpair beat an overpair 85 out o

You would have to be f'ing retarded to make a post like this. Since my comment is not directed at you, but at the situation, you have no reason to be mad at me.

I'm a liberal and a bit of a lefty. There, that's out there. I agree with the dumping of Harper. The thought of that man running our country scares me. I'm at a bit of a loss as to why the conservatives have him in the top spot. I'm at much more of a loss as to why the conservatives have McKay way up there. The old sign-off-on-a-promise-then-go-back-on-it-as-soon-as-you-get-what-you-want trick has never been more evident than with McKay's little backroom shenanigans to get the PC leadership. As I said, I'm a bit of a lefty, but it's possible that someday I'd vote for the conservatives,

I love some of the discussions around here, such as:Guy bets a whole bunch, so I put him on f. all and called him. Turns out he bet so damn much because he had a really good hand and was hoping to be called. Gees, what a moron.

Sklansky, D., Shayberg, L., and McCrindle, R. (1998). Probability Top Pair is Best in Texas Holdem Poker, with no Assumptions. Journal of Impossible Statistics , pp 319-327.Also available in a different article is the probability that if you are driving a car, you get arrested for drunk driving.

Sklansky worked this out once. The correct answer is 42%. This is not open to debate.

Some of my own thoughts based on your thoughts. These are not meant to be dismissive of your points in any way, just a little discussion. 1. There are times when pushing in is moronic. Just because a player was pushing does not make it a reasonable play. I realize you're not saying this, but sometimes the "yeah, but he was pushing, not calling" justification just doesn't cut it. It's certainly a reasonable justification in both the DN and Le plays, but sometimes it's just plain dumb.2. "if my opponent is tight/passive and raises pre-flop, i'll call with 7-2 offsuit if i think i can rea

Suppose it's a typical Party 15-30. Which one of the following costs the most money on average?1) Folding AQo UTG as opposed to raising AQ0 UTG.2) Raising 33 on the button after 3 limpers as opposed to the limp.

From what I understand, there is also a way to keep score in Yahtzee.

Some of you have a real fundamental misunderstanding of the variance in poker tournaments, and poker in general. A fairly typical argument is something like:Jack the poster writes:"Johnny X isn't good, he's lucky. When the won the Louisiana heads up championship, he got all in as a dog 42 times in a row and won all of them. Now that's lucky!".Billy Tulane responds:"When did I say he didn't get lucky? You have to get lucky to win a tournament. But I didn't see you sticking your neck out like that 42 times. That takes guts you know. And heart. He won the tournament, so he must be doin

If you think this is the worst play you've ever seen in a poker game, you either: 1) have never played poker before, or 2) don't know what a bad play is.

Yes, he's gotten quite lucky so far.that was a sw by meI was pulling a reverse-reverse "math guy" play.

Yes, he's gotten quite lucky so far.

Another prediction:Daniel will go bust on day 3, going out on a reverse-reverse-reverse-reverse "feel guy" play.

Look for Gavin Smith to eliminate Daniel on day 3.

But it will bring the "he just got lucky twice" people out of the woodwork.

The next line of the quote being:If you're calling this bet, then jamming on any flop that doesn't include an A or K, that's better, but still allowing him to flop top pair with this T7, etc. Also, you're letting him off the hook with AQ/AJs, etc. Yes, I know what a stop and go is.

You can't seriously say that folding is a better play than calling? :roll: Folding is the absolute weakest thing you can do in this situation - hands down.The only debate here is whether to call/raise or all in.DevAgreed.