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Snowman

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Everything posted by Snowman

  1. I've got to say I'm surprised that so many feel that this is a dumb move.OP has slightly more than 8BB left so he's got to move soon. There is no information about the other players' stacks or the pay out structure, which is essential in this position. Without that information, I'd say that this is an ok move.SB's raise could definitely be a steal. It's a big portion of his stack so it might be hard to get him to fold, but KQ is still a strong hand and the possibilty to get a decent stack at this point should be valuable. I would be very happy if villain folded and not very upset if I got call
  2. I'll just add one:Berating bad players. Don't do it!!!
  3. I should also add that I would lean more towards a fold with the kind of SnG stats you have, because you're obviously profitable at this level and can probably outplay the other players later.
  4. Here's an article discussing with what hands you should call a pre-flop all-in bet during the early rounds, which is pretty similar to this situation:http://cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archi...5037&m_id=65574Myself, I don't really like AKs in this situation as, in my opinion, it's more likely that he has a low to mid pp than a weaker ace (or something even worse) and you can probably find bigger edges later on.However, it's a tough laydown, so I may push here depending on my mood at the time.I don't like calling since you are in a tough spot if you don't hit the flop.
  5. Thanks for a great reply. I would factor in an ace with a club too, to get slightly better odds.He had almost the worst possible hand though, QT with the T of clubs, so I was drawing very slim. But I still think it was the right decision.Thanks to everyone for the replies.
  6. I'd tend to agree with this. I'm in Europe so this is in the morning over here. Sometime after 3 am it tends to dry up in my experience, during European daytime/US night is the worst time to play as far as I can tell (about 4 am to 10am EST). Weekdays that is.
  7. If I added up all the bets correctly then there is around 105k in the pot and you have to call around 25k. So, you have a little more than 4:1 in pot odds.If you are 100% sure he has a flush, then you have 10 outs, which means 3.6:1 odds. So it's a call. Also consider tournament equity. If you fold you will have your work cut out to get back in the game since you will be short stacked against two large stacks. On the other hand if you win you will have a big stack to work with.Depending on your own table image here (if he thought he could trap you and if you have been raising a lot pf), I thin
  8. My own thoughts:The overbet smells fishy no matter what in my mind. So it comes down to the perception of my opponent.My read on him is that he is bad. He is loose and he has not been afraid to bet so he's not as passive as some bad players. But he's hardly a maniac either.In my mind I find it more likely that he hit the board in some way and possibly (very likely?) has a flush draw. I'm not sure that that is a correct assumption though.If I thought he was a strong player, I think I'd be more inclined to fold as it looks like he's trying to make me suspicious about the bet.For what it's worth,
  9. $5.50 SnG on PokerStars.PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cxBB (t2020)UTG (t1575)UTG+1 (t1425)MP1 (t1562)MP2 (t2958)CO (t995)Hero (t1545)SB (t1420)Preflop: Hero is Button with [Js], [Ah]. 1 fold, UTG+1 calls t90, CO calls t90.Flop: (t405) [Ac], [Jc], [Kc] (3 players)UTG+1 checks, CO bets t875 (All-In), Hero...CO is a bad loose player who has been somewhat aggressive. His call pf doesn't tell me a lot, but it seems unlikely that he has a flush as a lot of the high flush cards are on the board. A set is not very likely either as he wo
  10. Starting to feel like a PT support employee. :-) It's post flop aggression factor, (Bets + raises) / calls, after the flop.
  11. Yeah, click on the plus sign in GT+, (or if it is minimized, right click on the icon and select "add tracker"). Then pick the name of the database in PT you're using and your screen name.Then you should get a list of tables where you can choose which to add. The tables don't appear immediately. You have to wait for PT to read at least one hand at that table before it appears.
  12. You have to get GameTime+ (http://sourceforge.net/projects/gametimeplus) or Poker Ace HUD (http://www.pokeracesoftware.com/). The latter costs $25.
  13. Math guys vs Gut guysI’ve really given some thought to this post and I hope I can make my point clear.I think there is a big misunderstanding about “math guy” players and “gut guy” players. It seems like there is a general idea that by being a math guy player, you are predictable and “can’t think outside the box”, while gut guys can make smart, unconventional plays that earns more than a play made by a math guy.First of all, I would say there are two very important abilities a poker player can have that are relevant to this discussion. One: pure math ability. Two: Reading skills.By math abilit
  14. I've been meaning to brush up my math so I took a shot at this. I'm not sure I thought of everything as I did this pretty fast. Please ask if anything is unclear.1. AA23 subset of 82. AA2X subset of 83. AA3X subset of 84. A234 subset of 95. A23X subset of 96. A2KK, A2QQ subset of 97. A345 subset of 118. AA45, AAXX (X != A) 4!/(2!*2!) * 48!/(2!*46!) = 6 * 1128 = 67689. A2QK, A2KJ, A2XX (X != 2, A) 4 * 4 * 44!/(2!*42!) = 16 * 946 = 1513610. A3KK 4 * 4 * 6 = 9611. A34X (X != 2, A) 4 * 4 * 4 * 45 = 288012. 2345 4 * 4 * 4 * 4 = 25613. JQKA subset of 18 14. TJQK subset of 1815. JQKK subset of 1816.
  15. Thanks, I needed that.I justified the cap with that I had stolen a few times and figured he had picked up on it and wanted to play back at me. I got carried away.
  16. I've been away from poker for two months and feeling a little rusty. Here's an attack on the blinds.BB is a pretty solid TA player. I've been stealing succesfully a couple of times earlier.Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converterPreflop: Hero is Button with [Ah], [Jc]. 5 folds, BB calls.Flop: (8.50 SB) [9s], [Ad], [8c] (2 players)BB bets, Hero calls.Turn: (7.25 BB) [Js] (2 players)BB bets, Hero calls.River: (13.25 BB) [Qs] (2 players)BB bets, Hero calls.Final Pot: 15.25 BB
  17. Would have been pretty funny if these two entries were in the reverse order...
  18. You all get me excited to give it a shot. Especially since I'm having a down swing in hold 'em atm.I've played some limit O8 and although I'm definitely not good, I'm at least up some so far.start at the lower limits, and play a lot of hands, til you really get the feel of it. trust me, it will pay off but at first theres a lot to learn about the game.Yeah, like a four flush board combined with my ace for the, in my mind, nut flush, is not a very good hand to be betting. ;)Kicked myself pretty hard after that one, during my first session of O8. I guess things like that is what makes it so prof
  19. You all get me excited to give it a shot. Especially since I'm having a down swing in hold 'em atm.I've played some limit O8 and although I'm definitely not good, I'm at least up some so far.
  20. Yup.Apart from NL 5-stud, but there are only a few small stakes games on Prima(or ladbrokes)Is this true above micro stakes? I've been meaning to get around to learning Omaha and Stud, but it seems like so few play it that it would be tough to make more money than at hold 'em.I'm probably going to put some time into both of them to become more rounded, but right now I don't see them as a replacement for hold 'em moneywise. Please correct me if I'm wrong as I've got no idea what I'm talking about.
  21. i noticed that too. i think it's whatever the commonly accepted "risk of ruin" is, at least the same one that mason malmuth uses.there was an interesting link to a thread where a 2+2'er argues that mason's bankroll number has to be DOUBLED because his risk of ruin isn't low enough.that is, for example, that if the bankroll the webpage calculates (using mason's formulas) leaves a 5% risk of ruin, doubling the bankroll would make the risk of ruin around 0.1%.aseemIf you follow the links from that page a couple of levels you get to this page, where you can enter the ROI:http://support3.com/poker/
  22. No worries. I'm used to posting there, but I thought the strategic value of this post was... limited. Unless it's a play that's waaaay over my head.
  23. but a close farrell maybe. Keep your eyes on CO (and on the board cards). I fell out of my chair laughing when I saw this one.Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converterPreflop: Hero is BB with [7h], [2d]. 6 folds.Flop: (5 SB) [Ac], [Qd], [As] (2 players)SB checks, CO bets, SB calls.Turn: (3.50 BB) [Qh] (2 players)SB checks, CO bets, SB calls.River: (5.50 BB) [Ah] (2 players)SB checks, CO folds.Final Pot: 5.50 BB
  24. What if SB 3-bets and BB folds?However, I think this argument makes a raise the best play:
  25. Also, am I mad for even thinking about folding to the fold 3-bet? I feel I can count at most 4 outs (jacks and non-heart king). I have 14:1, which is good enough for that, but I most likely have to dodge a heart and I'm not sure a king is good.
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