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Everything posted by Snowman

  1. Lol, I played him yesterday for 100+ hands and promptly got stuck $250 before turning it around to end up -$30, thank god.
  2. I'm qpdbqp who played the first hour and a half or so. I'm not a very frequent poster, but still lurking.
  3. I agree that the article is on the simplistic side, but DN never says it is that black and white. The guys in the article are just examples. This is something I'm not sure I get. Are you two saying that it's something inheritently good in taking risks per se? The way I see it, you can be very conservative with bankroll management and still aggressively take shots at higher limits with money you set aside for that purpose. Why would you ever need to put so much of your bankroll on the line that you risk going broke?I guess that for some people the risk works as a motivation to get better quic
  4. I resent that. We're never not drunk.
  5. What brings me to folding in this hand is the caller in between. The image problem is less of an issue then, imo. It's also more likely we're either already beat and drawing very slim or having even fewer outs. And the extra caller doesn't help our odds much.Another thing is that we should make sure to call with good hands too, so that a call from us on the flop doesn't automatically mean we've missed, cause then we're just as exploitable, only it costs us more.
  6. Agree. It's common that people peel the flop and then fold the turn. I won't put in any more bets though.
  7. I let this one go on the flop. If one of them has a king we're drawing very slim and it's also possible one of them is on a flush draw, devaluating our backdoor draw even more.
  8. I think calling turn and river > 3-betting.That way we always get to showdown for the same price as the 3-bet, free showdown. We are also likely to get the chance to raise the river if we hit, which makes the 3-bet on the turn less useful. Also when we're behind and he caps we have put in a lot of bets on the turn with an equity disadvantage.
  9. Hmm, normally I'm c/r-ing this flop, but maybe donk betting gets more money in there if he has an actual hand or think we're full of it. If he raises then we can c/r turn.I don't really like the turn line. I play these pots pretty straight forward and hope villain has something. We'll not make much when he doesn't have anything anyway.
  10. We're putting in 2 BBs to win 5.5BB so this has to succeed roughly 1 in 3 times to show a profit. I'm cool with that against an aggressive player who's capable of folding.
  11. I raise pf to isolate.As played I bet the flop. Button may raise and clear out the field for us in this pretty big pot.
  12. Depends a bit on the blinds but I generally like to raise here. We're ahead of villain's range and he's bad so we'd like to play him hu.
  13. I play it the same. Without SB in there I would 3-bet to increase fold equity on the flop.
  14. #1: I'm folding. Out of position with a hand that you're likely to win small or lose big with.#2: 3-betting this against most oppontents.#3: I'm folding this against this opponent. He's a bit on the tight side for me to 3-bet this. I think I'm folding against a 23/18 too though. Being out of position sucks. With a read that he has a tendency to give up easily when 3-bet then I'm 3-betting him.
  15. You're getting 7 to 1 odds to call and you have 10.75 to 1 odds to hit your straight. So you'll have to make up 2 BBs on the turn and river when you hit to make it profitable.If BB has hit something on that flop then you'll probably extract 3 BBs from him if you raise the turn and bet the river when you hit the gutshot. You'll most likely get 1 BB if he's got nothing and bets the turn and you raise him.So, I guess it dependes on how likely BB is to call you down. Having other loose passives in the hand of course makes it more likely you'll make up for the bad odds on the flop.In general I'd sa
  16. This doesn't mean anything about win rate though. Not trying to be an *** (lame filter), but 172.5 hours is roughly 4300 hands if you see 25 hands/hour (which is a figure I've seen thrown around a lot. I don't play live so I don't know). With a sample that small your true win rate can be way off.I'm not questioning your ability here, but getting a statistically significant sample size live takes a looong time.
  17. Uhm, well, I hate June and I hate short-handed limit.First 5/10 in June:After that run I went down to 3/6 to regroup, which has worked really well so far:Worst run yet in my poker career.
  18. I had a pretty bad streak with KK when I started playing 3/6. After having it 40-45 times it was my 19th most profitable hand (BB/hand), right after the monsters A3s and J8s.Btw, I'm in a much gloomier mood than this post might indicate. 150BB down swings tend to do that to me...
  19. What about a raise on the flop for a free card on the turn? Do we have enough equity to risk that?
  20. I normally raise, bet/fold turn UI and check behind on the river.If we get 3-bet I give an unknown credit for a J or an 8 and fold the turn unimproved. Probably don't even have the odds to call the 3-bet, but I don't like raise/folding hu.Edit: And at 1/2 6-max I don't think we'll fold a better hand often enough to try.
  21. That's how I usually play it. Once in a while I call down against a villain with stats like that.
  22. A couple of questions:How do you define how large a step is in a random walk model of this?Is an asymmetric random walk a random walk, but with different probabilities as to which direction a step is taken?Finally, could you do this with Markov chains? Once upon a time I used to know how Markov chains worked and I have a feeling this could be solved by using them.(I hope my questions make sense... )
  23. I found this link for calculating RoR:http://www.bet-the-pot.com/bankroll-standa...ion-page43.html
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