Maximizing Ev, Controlling The Pot Size, And Position

[sierradave 0]

A hand came up last night that illustrates an ongoing issue that I've been considering:the game is $1/2 nl in Atlantic City. Table is very interesting, with a couple of players who are loose-aggressive preflop, but then clam up postflop. The villain in question has a particularly fun habit of raising small with speculative hands (k7o, ace-rag, small pairs, suited connectors) and raising huge with his big hands (raised to $25 preflop with AA when no one had limped before him, heard him lecturing another player about how you "have to raise big with those hands to protect them"). He generally c-bets the flop, but bets small when he misses, big when he hits. If called on the flop, he shuts down on the turn. Effective stacks in this hand are $200.Villain raises to $10 preflop from early position. Folded around to me in middle position, I call with Ac2h, intending to outplay on the flop. Small blind calls as well. He calls a lot of raises with or without position. He's made one bluff against another player and has a classic Caro-style tell when he does so.Flop (3 players, $30) 10d6d2dSb checks, villain bets out $10. This is his standard c-bet and I don't know where I'm at against him or the small blind. I decide I don't want to escalate the pot at this point, particularly with position, so I call. Sb does as well, my hunch is he has a flush draw.Turn (3 players, $60) 2cSb checks, villain bets $20. He has either top pair, decent kicker or he flopped the flush. Top pair is much more likely, I'd put it at 90%/10%. Sb probably still has the flush draw, if it's the ace of diamonds, I don't think I have much fold equity against him. That's a double-edged sword. I can make him overpay for his draw (good), but I'm not picking up any extra pots when the river brings a diamond by raising here.What play has the higher EV here? Stacks aren't tremendously deep. I have position and well-disguised trips. If I just call, I keep the pot small and give myself an easy fold if the diamond comes on the river. Additionally, if the river is an offsuit ace, the ace of diamonds will probably pay off a decent bet, and on the off chance that someone flopped the flush, I'll stack off with my full house. If I fade a river diamond, top-pair hands will likely pay me off as well (I expect on average to make $75 on the river). On the other hand, it's very likely that I'm way ahead and am a 4-to-1 favorite going into the river. Raising here is clearly +EV. But with a well-disguised hand and position, I can keep the pot small with a vulnerable hand and get paid off on the river as a 100% favorite, so that's +EV as well. Infinity-to-zero is obviously better odds than 4-to-1, but it's also pretty timid to let a flush draw get there on the cheap. I currently lean towards just calling and making money on the river. My concern is that I've been running bad this month and I might be fooling myself, waiting for the safe card before I make money and losing out in the long run. How much are position and pot control really worth here, in comparison to the stark reality of being a 4-to-1 favorite against a blatant draw?

[mtdesmoines 3]

A hand came up last night that illustrates an ongoing issue that I've been considering:

I have "junk ball" tendencies, but I am not particularly fond of A2. That being said, one of my philosophies is that, if you're going to be a junk baller, you have to get paid when you hit. I start filling this pot like a MF on the turn. You'll fold out flush draws and take the pot, or you are looking at trying to boat up and beat the made flush. Either way, you have to start filling this pot now, on the turn.

[nomad_monad 0]

if you really wanted to try and outplay the pf raiser, the time to do it was on the flop. calling often just invites the SB along with a singleton draw, meaning you should really give it up on the turn but you happened to hit trips.i really don't like how this hand played out. you could raise the turn but you could easily be drawing thin to a flopped flush or dead to 66 (unlikely since pf raiser likes to bet big to protect, but we also don't know how he reacts to semiscary flops) especially since you said pf raiser likes to raise small with speculative hands like small pairs and connectors, and he's continuing to bet into two players on the flop and turn while simultaneously giving them odds to chase. not to mention, because we didn't try and end the hand on the flop, once villain bets again, we can no longer effectively raise to "protect" our hand without potsticking ourselves if we are indeed crushed. you could call here to re-evaluate the river, but you are not calling here to "make money" on the river - you're looking for a cheap showdown. if there's decent action on the river, more often than not, it's you that's going to be paying.. unless you've got SB or pf raiser read as recklessly aggressive in attempting busted draw bluffs OOP on the river against 2 players.

[mtdesmoines 3]

if you really wanted to try and outplay the pf raiser, the time to do it was on the flop.

I don't know that I agree. The flop is a good place to float ... the turn is the true "outplaying" bottleneck, it's where draws shrink, and simple pairs look a little sicker when pressured.

[nomad_monad 0]

I don't know that I agree. The flop is a good place to float ... the turn is the true "outplaying" bottleneck, it's where draws shrink, and simple pairs look a little sicker when pressured.

i don't think we really disagree much. i like floating on the flop against just the pf raiser or against two players when we're deeper. problem is that if SB comes along, our stack is not big enough where we can make a play on the turn without risking most or all of it.

[shinzilla 0]

I call with Ac2h, intending to outplay on the flop.

Ugh. Don't do that.

What play has the higher EV here?... Raising here is clearly +EV... currently lean towards just calling and making money on the river. My concern is that I've been running bad this month and I might be fooling myself, waiting for the safe card before I make money and losing out in the long run.

I think you answered your own question. Raising here is without a doubt the best move. Making money on the river isn't guaranteed. Why would you allow him to get a free card? Doesn't make any sense. You're taking pot control wayyyyyyy too far here. Also, don't let "running bad" influence your decisions. In summary, raising>calling by miles.

[Acid_Knight 2]

Against a player who that transparent, calling with this hand preflop is "ok" and not much more.Once the flop comes down and he makes his small bet, you should raise him right there. If he doesn't have a diamond or a set, it'll be tough for him to continue. You also put pressure on the SB to fold by making this play. Once the turn fall, you change your whole logic about him. He's still betting small, but now for some reason, you're saying he has a hand? I don't get it.His turn bet is weak and I'd raise it with the intention of getting it AI if need be.

[sabes99 0]

fold pf, it seems based on your reads that he has at least something here and not complete airi like floating the flop here...you don't necessarily know the SB has anything or whether or not he will come along for the ridesince it's a cash game, the +EV play has to be over-raising, because you will get more money in the pot and do so as the favorite...in a tournament, it's still the +EV play even though it's closer because you have to protect your stack, but you should want to gamble against the flush draw here because you are a decent favorite

[nomad_monad 0]

i like floating the flop here...you don't necessarily know the SB has anything or whether or not he will come along for the ride

Once the flop comes down and he makes his small bet, you should raise him right there. If he doesn't have a diamond or a set, it'll be tough for him to continue. You also put pressure on the SB to fold by making this play.

^^^^Listen to this guy - he won't steer you wrong

[sierradave 0]

Thanks, I appreciate the responses. I'm not sure that my original plan was clear enough. This guy had the nice habit of making a lot of small raises with marginal hands, betting small on the flop, then giving up on the turn. I was trying to float any hand that didn't look to have a lot of other callers, steal on the turn when he shut down, otherwise give up. I was doing that once every couple of orbits probably, just infrequently enough that it wouldn't become too obvious to the table. My point is, yeah, I'm definitely with you all, a2 is profitable here only in the weirdest of circumstances. I don't think the hand gets all that interesting until the turn.He'd played a hand earlier where he flopped a flush and had that same betting sequence of $10, $20. The main thing is that he wasn't putting in turn money without something meaningful. Floating flops was crazy-profitable against this guy, so much so that I saw little reason is escalating early with most hands.FWIW, the river came a diamond, all of us checked, and the sb said "damn" and turned over the ace of diamonds. Villain had k10o and complained about being outdrawn again, I quietly mucked. That's why the hand stuck with me: they had basically what I thought they had, I managed to keep what would have been a big-pot loss small, and I would have still been able to extract around a 3/4 pot-sized bet from the villain had the river bricked. That said, I think you all are likely right that, even given those conditions, I win more in the long run by betting large on the turn and forcing them to draw incorrectly. This would have been another obnoxious suck-out, but the raise is a long-run better play.

[nomad_monad 0]

I would have still been able to extract around a 3/4 pot-sized bet from the villain had the river bricked.

i'd say 1/2 pot max, only more if he suspects you're floating too much and thinks of a bet as a busted draw bluff (because villain is likely not betting the river) - but that contradicts the thinking behind everything else in the hand.

[Zach6668 513]

"...intending to outplay him on the flop..."Fwiw, lots of people misuse this term.To outplay someone is to make better postflop (and preflop) decisions than them, resulting in you making more money in the long run. Outplaying someone does not mean making a ridiculous play with a worse hand, or air, as these plays generally have a long run negative EV.

[No_Neck 0]

"...intending to outplay him on the flop..."Fwiw, lots of people misuse this term.To outplay someone is to make better postflop (and preflop) decisions than them, resulting in you making more money in the long run. Outplaying someone does not mean making a ridiculous play with a worse hand, or air, as these plays generally have a long run negative EV.

Don't mind him he plays limit.