Shove Over Top On River Or Just Call?

[Tehtoe 3]

Raise pre, you always have limpets beat. You can limp sometimes but I raise here over 90%.You lose to one hand on the river. If you can't put your stack in on the river, you can't win at tournaments.

but your tournament life!

[TrueAce13 18]

but your tournament life!

obv.

[SlackerInc 0]

You lose to one hand on the river. If you can't put your stack in on the river, you can't win at tournaments.

Well, that is what I did...I see some merit in the other arguments though. Your opinion obv. carries more weight however.ETA: Looshle, you advocated raising preflop. Are the players you play with as loose callers as they are in the micros? Because against the players I play, the limpers will mostly call the raise at this blind level (while paradoxically they will limp at very high blinds and then fold, lol). Then you face a three or four way flop with a bloated pot, middle pair, and two overcards.

[AimHigher 0]

Well, that is what I did...I see some merit in the other arguments though. Your opinion obv. carries more weight however.ETA: Looshle, you advocated raising preflop. Are the players you play with as loose callers as they are in the micros? Because against the players I play, the limpers will mostly call the raise at this blind level (while paradoxically they will limp at very high blinds and then fold, lol). Then you face a three or four way flop with a bloated pot, middle pair, and two overcards.

I play micros and my default is to raise. Here's a few good reasons:- If we end up with more than one caller, 99 plays well multiway- We have an equity edge against the limpers ranges- We'll end up in position most of the time- We'll have the initiative- It'll be a lot easier to get stacks in when we flop a set

[looshle 6]

Well, that is what I did...I see some merit in the other arguments though. Your opinion obv. carries more weight however.ETA: Looshle, you advocated raising preflop. Are the players you play with as loose callers as they are in the micros? Because against the players I play, the limpers will mostly call the raise at this blind level (while paradoxically they will limp at very high blinds and then fold, lol). Then you face a three or four way flop with a bloated pot, middle pair, and two overcards.

Yea I'd make it like 100 here and expect to get called in one spot, prob both in a $5 tourney.You still can flop a set, you have the lead, and your hand will be fairly easy to play postflop. Depends on flop texture etc, you can decide to c-bet or check. If they both call you're still getting to play a 17bb pot in position with the best hand. It's not like you automatically lose the pot if they call, you are in an easily exploitable situation and shutting down post flop is fine if the flop is gross.The looser they call, the more inclined you should be to raise in this spot. Exploit every edge you can find, and turn situations like this which seem to be smaller edges into bigger ones when you are playing with worse players since you can get action from worse hands and can expect them to play their hands pretty terribly postflop.

[SlackerInc 0]

The looser they call, the more inclined you should be to raise in this spot. Exploit every edge you can find, and turn situations like this which seem to be smaller edges into bigger ones when you are playing with worse players since you can get action from worse hands and can expect them to play their hands pretty terribly postflop.

I agree wholeheartedly with your second sentence there. The first one, though...isn't 99 one of those hands that does well iso against one player but declines rapidly in value in a multiway pot? I saw a chart laying out how hand rankings change depending on how many players see the flop, and I thought that was the case.And isn't part of what you are talking about in the second sentence a good reason to limp rather than raise? If you flop the set, players who play poorly postflop can be felted almost as easily starting with a teeny limp pot as they can with a much bigger raised pot, as they just don't process the concept of "big hand, big pot; small hand, small pot". So with this in mind, and after recently reading Daniel Negreanu's and Gus Hansen's recent books, I find myself swayed by the idea of seeing flops cheaply and then exploiting poor postflop play, keeping pots manageably small if my hand remains just a medium strength one, while ballooning the pot when I connect very strongly with the flop and have a hand I want to play for a big pot.But again, you obviously have the credentials, so I'm very open to being educated as to why this analysis is wrong.

[looshle 6]

I agree wholeheartedly with your second sentence there. The first one, though...isn't 99 one of those hands that does well iso against one player but declines rapidly in value in a multiway pot? I saw a chart laying out how hand rankings change depending on how many players see the flop, and I thought that was the case.And isn't part of what you are talking about in the second sentence a good reason to limp rather than raise? If you flop the set, players who play poorly postflop can be felted almost as easily starting with a teeny limp pot as they can with a much bigger raised pot, as they just don't process the concept of "big hand, big pot; small hand, small pot". So with this in mind, and after recently reading Daniel Negreanu's and Gus Hansen's recent books, I find myself swayed by the idea of seeing flops cheaply and then exploiting poor postflop play, keeping pots manageably small if my hand remains just a medium strength one, while ballooning the pot when I connect very strongly with the flop and have a hand I want to play for a big pot.But again, you obviously have the credentials, so I'm very open to being educated as to why this analysis is wrong.

You aren't raising to fold them out, you're raising for value. If they want to fold fine, take the 3.5 bbs. If they want to call and play a raised pot out of position with the worst hand, even better. You really can't pass up edges in online donkaments, unless they are extremely small. DN and Gus are talking about big buyin events with deeper stacks and longer levels. Gus also likes to shove k7 off from mid for like 25bbs and do other random shit, so his guidelines are kind of day to day and sometimes without reasoning or math to back it up.You ARE exploiting poor play by making them put in 100 and play oop with an inferior hand. If you raise to 100 and both limpers call you, and c/f the flop you're picking up 230 chips which is like 8% of your stack or something like that. Yea, it;d be nice to flop sets in limped pots and get all the money in but unfortunately it's pretty rare. You are going to profit 200 chips like 75% of the time if you raise, they both call, and you c-bet. If you limp in and set mine, you're only flopping a set 1 out of every 7.5 times and how often is someone going to stack off? Very rarely. Those 6.5 times you miss and go into check call mode are missed opportunities. Let's say they both call pre (which prob happens in a $5) and you profit, on average, 75 chips. 75*6.5 = 487.5 chips you've thrown away by limping. You simply aren't going to get someone to stack off or lose a lot of chips enough in a limped pot to pass on that kind of edge. Also, another point about playing a limped pot vs a raised pot is: in a limped pot since its only 20 on the flop it's usually hard to get your bet sizing to get people to stack off , but much easier when you flop a set in a raised pot. If the pots 330 after they both call your raise, you can get your stack in pretty easily on the river, if you use correct bet sizing which is easier with position. Something like 250, call. Pots 830 now. 700, call. Pots 2030. Now you can jam without it being an overbet.Bottom line is: You're not DN, this isn't the WPT championship. Push your edges whenever you can.

[jmbreslin 0]

You lose to one hand on the river. If you can't put your stack in on the river, you can't win at tournaments.

In large field tournaments, I agree 100%. But not in small SnGs. The two contexts are quite different and you can't play both the same way. This decisision isn't about being weak or not having the nads to put my stack on the line on the river. It's about making the best decision in terms of my overall tournament equity.By the way, what ever happened to copernicus?

[SlackerInc 0]

Also, another point about playing a limped pot vs a raised pot is: in a limped pot since its only 20 on the flop it's usually hard to get your bet sizing to get people to stack off , but much easier when you flop a set in a raised pot. If the pots 330 after they both call your raise, you can get your stack in pretty easily on the river, if you use correct bet sizing which is easier with position. Something like 250, call. Pots 830 now. 700, call. Pots 2030. Now you can jam without it being an overbet.

But that's what I was talking about in my post--at this level, most people have no concept of an "overbet". That is, they don't think about how much is in the pot when they decide whether to call off all their chips (or to shove themselves). They like their hand enough to go all in, or they don't. (This also leads to very poor folds when the pot is big and their pot odds are very favourable.) So implied odds are much greater than what they would be with people who have any sense of pot size, effective stacks, stack/blind ratios, etc., meaning there is a greater incentive to get to flops cheaply.Admittedly, it might be teaching me bad habits as I'd like to play at a higher level like you do, where to felt someone you presumably do have to work your way up starting preflop and working incrementally street by street.I also think it's worth remembering, as others have pointed out, that this is a 3-table SnG, not a big MTT.(P.S. Yeah, where is Copernicus?)

[sactownjoey 0]

looshle, are you doing the same with 88-77 or lower pp? When are you set mining in this situation?

[TrueAce13 18]

Alright, seriously, even though this is a 3 table sng, you are playing wayyyy too nitty if your just flatting here! Our hand is crushing most of the range of villain here. Remember, even though this is a sng, it is still a 5.50 sng...PEOPLE PLAY HORRIBLE! If you get coolered (like you did, sorry)...but it is worth the risk to increase your stack here. Get value out of your hands, stop being nits. I don't think anyone here is just flatting, i think everyone is being result based here who is saying "I'd flat here".

[AimHigher 0]

In large field tournaments, I agree 100%. But not in small SnGs. The two contexts are quite different and you can't play both the same way. This decisision isn't about being weak or not having the nads to put my stack on the line on the river. It's about making the best decision in terms of my overall tournament equity.

$EV shoving > $EV flattingYou can run the math if you'd like.

[MovingIn 0]

Yeah, remember that shoving gives you a chance, however remote, to fold a better hand, whereas when we flat here we MUST show down the best hand to win. It's almost always +EV to shove rather than flat when you believe you may be best.

[SlackerInc 0]

Yeah, remember that shoving gives you a chance, however remote, to fold a better hand, whereas when we flat here we MUST show down the best hand to win. It's almost always +EV to shove rather than flat when you believe you may be best.

You think a shove gets a better full house to fold, ever? I think the chance of that is approximately 0.000%. And Negreanu in his smallball chapter pretty strongly advises calling rather than raising a lot of times when you "believe you may be best", though perhaps not in situations where you are this strong.

[Gallo 1]

This is not a knock on anyone so please don't take this the wrong way. Usually the stuff that Daniel and Harrington talk about pertain to stuff when we play deepstack tournaments or are deepstacked ourselves. Small ball is really difficult to put into play in online tournies.

[SlackerInc 0]

This is not a knock on anyone so please don't take this the wrong way. Usually the stuff that Daniel and Harrington talk about pertain to stuff when we play deepstack tournaments or are deepstacked ourselves. Small ball is really difficult to put into play in online tournies.

You don't think we're relatively deepstacked when the blinds are 10/20? A lot of DN's examples are from hands where the hero is no deeper than that.ETA: I'm discovering that the smallball style is the way I really enjoy playing, at least at the moment after reading the books I have recently. Poker is a hobby for me, not a career (though it is a hobby I'm intensely into, like a lot of people are with their hobbies when you think about it). To take an extreme example, even if I knew I could make more profit playing turbos and doing a lot of preflop jamming and general aggro play, I'd pass because that doesn't really appeal to me, at least not at this stage (I've played with a number of different styles over time, so who knows where I'll be at in six months or a year). Just like in tennis (another passion of mine), where my net game is not strong enough to justify all the times I attack the net, if I wanted to play the percentages to the max...yet I keep rushing the net because it's fun. ::shrug:: I don't say this btw because I think I play perfect smallball and have the style totally down--not at all. But I'm looking to sharpen those skills, not switch to a different style. (Again with the tennis analogy, if I got advice or lessons from a more accomplished player, I'd be wanting help improving my volleys at the net, not to be told "stay back at the baseline, you'll win more that way".)Okay, I'm rambling, sorry...vodka'll do that to me. ;-)

[jmbreslin 0]

$EV shoving > $EV flattingYou can run the math if you'd like.

Show me. I'm not entirely sure how to do the math myself.

[AimHigher 0]

Show me. I'm not entirely sure how to do the math myself.

   equity	 win	 tie		   pots won	 pots tied	Hand 0:	 70.492%	  70.49%	 00.00%				 43			 0.00   { 9c9h }Hand 1:	 29.508%	  29.51%	 00.00%				 18			 0.00   { KK, JJ, 88, AJs, KJs, QTs+, J8s+, AJo, KJo, QTo+, J8o+ }

Here's the range I suggested before. Our equity is 70.492%. I'm going to be really lazy and round it down to 70%. You can use any equity you want and rerun the numbers if you'd like.Rather than calculate the equities ourselves we're just going to cheat and use an ICM calculator. Here's the link to the ICM Calculator I used: http://www.jamorfold.com/icm.html. After entering the prize pool, number of players that cash, payouts for first and last, number of remaining players, the average stack and our current stack, it produces our tournament equity for us.Since we're 8 handed and in the first level, I'm assuming there's 26 players remaining. We calculate the average stack like this: (entrants * starting stack) / remaining players. It could be that there are actually 25 or 24, but that shouldn't effect the numbers too much.To save time:Equity when we call and lose: $2.16http://www.jamorfold.com/icm.html?prizepoo...playerstack=620Equity when we call and win: $7.26http://www.jamorfold.com/icm.html?prizepoo...layerstack=2230 Equity when we shove and win: $9.08http://www.jamorfold.com/icm.html?prizepoo...layerstack=2850Equity when we shove and lose: $0Now let's do the $EV for calling. ($7.26 * 0.70) + ($2.16 * 0.30) = $5.72170% of the time our equity will be $7.26, 30% of the time our equity will be $2.16Now let's do the $EV for shoving.($9.08 * 0.70) + ($0 * 0.30) = $6.35670% of the time our equity will be $9.08 and 30% of the time our equity will be $0.You have to lower our hand equity quite a lot in order to get the $EV of calling > $EV of shoving.

[looshle 6]

Yeah, remember that shoving gives you a chance, however remote, to fold a better hand, whereas when we flat here we MUST show down the best hand to win. It's almost always +EV to shove rather than flat when you believe you may be best.

No and no.A better hand is not folding.There are TONS of situations where flatting when you think you are good is the best play. Just because you are in a situation where you think you have the best hand does not mean that you are going to get called by worse if you raise and leaves yourself open to a 3 bet bluff.So are you turning 9s full into a bluff here or value shoving it? because they're polar opposites. One sentence says one and one says the other.

[Tehtoe 3]

Yeah, remember that shoving gives you a chance, however remote, to fold a better hand, whereas when we flat here we MUST show down the best hand to win. It's almost always +EV to shove rather than flat when you believe you may be best.

wat

[MovingIn 0]

So you think we're beat here, looshle? Then why are you putting any chips into this pot on the river?

[looshle 6]

So you think we're beat here, looshle? Then why are you putting any chips into this pot on the river?

dude, wat are you talking about? i'm so confused. I never said we were beat here, shoving here is a no brainer. We CAN be beat but not nearly often enough to make calling more profitable than shoving.You're talking about maybe folding out a better hand, and then saying we should shove for value. Your logic really doesn't make any sense.

[jmbreslin 0]

   equity	 win	 tie		   pots won	 pots tied	Hand 0:	 70.492%	  70.49%	 00.00%				 43			 0.00   { 9c9h }Hand 1:	 29.508%	  29.51%	 00.00%				 18			 0.00   { KK, JJ, 88, AJs, KJs, QTs+, J8s+, AJo, KJo, QTo+, J8o+ }

Here's the range I suggested before. Our equity is 70.492%. I'm going to be really lazy and round it down to 70%. You can use any equity you want and rerun the numbers if you'd like.Rather than calculate the equities ourselves we're just going to cheat and use an ICM calculator. Here's the link to the ICM Calculator I used: http://www.jamorfold.com/icm.html. After entering the prize pool, number of players that cash, payouts for first and last, number of remaining players, the average stack and our current stack, it produces our tournament equity for us.Since we're 8 handed and in the first level, I'm assuming there's 26 players remaining. We calculate the average stack like this: (entrants * starting stack) / remaining players. It could be that there are actually 25 or 24, but that shouldn't effect the numbers too much.To save time:Equity when we call and lose: $2.16http://www.jamorfold.com/icm.html?prizepoo...playerstack=620Equity when we call and win: $7.26http://www.jamorfold.com/icm.html?prizepoo...layerstack=2230 Equity when we shove and win: $9.08http://www.jamorfold.com/icm.html?prizepoo...layerstack=2850Equity when we shove and lose: $0Now let's do the $EV for calling. ($7.26 * 0.70) + ($2.16 * 0.30) = $5.72170% of the time our equity will be $7.26, 30% of the time our equity will be $2.16Now let's do the $EV for shoving.($9.08 * 0.70) + ($0 * 0.30) = $6.35670% of the time our equity will be $9.08 and 30% of the time our equity will be $0.You have to lower our hand equity quite a lot in order to get the $EV of calling > $EV of shoving.

Can you really use ICM to calculate the equity so early in the SnG?

[MovingIn 0]

dude, wat are you talking about? i'm so confused. I never said we were beat here, shoving here is a no brainer. We CAN be beat but not nearly often enough to make calling more profitable than shoving.You're talking about maybe folding out a better hand, and then saying we should shove for value. Your logic really doesn't make any sense.

I was referring to shoving's EV in general. Here, folding our villain isn't as important because we have a hand of value. I'm not sure when you started grinding your axe with me because this thread isn't the first time in recent memory you've jumped down my throat unprovoked.

[looshle 6]

I was referring to shoving's EV in general. Here, folding our villain isn't as important because we have a hand of value. I'm not sure when you started grinding your axe with me because this thread isn't the first time in recent memory you've jumped down my throat unprovoked.

What planet are you from dude? I'm not grinding my axe with you. I'm telling you the logic behind your posts is flawed. " Shoving's EV in general"? what???? I'm sorry I had to be the one to tell you that you really don't know what you're talking about. Don't kill the messenger.