Let's Be Sensible Please

[Zeatrix 0]

http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/gor...1696238792.html

I think http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archi...04/gray-on-agw/ is a good link to balance that article out...

[Zeatrix 0]

An expert in the field, a leading expert, claims that science is looking in the wrong direction and that if they refused to do so would handicap the money they receive to research false data. I said that a year and a half ago when all this started becoming large and I don't know dick- I just know people, and can follow a money trail, and that science, for all it's triumphs, has a million failures- millions- and consistently comes up with egg on it's face- especially when celebrities or politicians back a cause, because guess what? They REALLY don't know dick. I'm going to celebrate by spraying 6000 cans of Aqua net into the air, while driving around in my moms old station wagon- you know, the one she drove 6 kids around in back in the 80's, sans seat belts because that was an add on- while calling every number in my cell phone, roughly 600 people and telling them all to turn on every light in there house for a week. Then, I am going to a fast food joint to put fry oil into my belly where it belongs, and when I am done I will take my heart pills wrapped in bacon, and then maybe I will go hunting for endangered species. Gonna be a busy day.

I know you are only trying to be funny, but I just want to point out one thing. Even if you disregard the CO2 emissions the stuff you talk about is still very bad for the environment. Burning gas produces lots of highly toxic substances/gases and unburned gas is also toxic. i just get the feeling that people forget about this when all we talk about today is global warming.

[Loismustdie 0]

I know you are only trying to be funny, but I just want to point out one thing. Even if you disregard the CO2 emissions the stuff you talk about is still very bad for the environment. Burning gas produces lots of highly toxic substances/gases and unburned gas is also toxic. i just get the feeling that people forget about this when all we talk about today is global warming.

No, I am aware of it. The earth is my bitch.

[SCYUKON 0]

Look at the quickness to bash him if he doesn't conform to what science wants. Reminds me of something...oh, I know, religion.

Indeed - I think this global warming paradigm has overtaken religion. At any rate, one further thing about Dr. Gray - he has plenty of YOBE. As my uncle, who always used to tease me that the young engineers always had the cow dung on the inside of their boots, thus making them easily identifiable, explained it, YOBE was Years of Bloody Experience. As I near year 20 of working since college, I could not agree with him more.Booksmarts are nice, but real world experience trumps all.

[SCYUKON 0]

yes, DN is just one person, and i can guarantee u that he is not the be-all expert on poker. there are many that would disagree with certain aspects of his game, just like anything else in life.

Indeed they would disagree. But they would not ostracize him from poker forums for having an alternate opinion, as he has had mad success. See the parallel now with Dr. Gray? Think he has had some mad success if you consider the billions the insurance companies are wagering based on his forecasts. Hmmn - think he must be doing something right. Any of these global warming dudes actually using their research for something useful other than research and doomsday predictions?You make my point for me. Geez you are helpful. Thanks again.

[SCYUKON 0]

science is based on observation and experimentation. religion is based on 'take my word for it'.

Geez you are a wealth of useful quotes and links. Where is the experimentation then? I would say all we have thus far is observation, and accusations of causation, with no experimentation to actually produce causal variables.So to me, take my word for it = comments based on observations. Global warning doomsday is definitely the new religion. And the common sense heretics get burned at the cross. Spectacularly parallel, it appears. But that is just an observation, no experiment behind that statement.

[All_In 0]

it's really quite funny that there are posters here who actually THINK global warming, and the human impact on it, is not reality.oh, it's just what the OVERWHELMING MAJORITY of climatologists and experts in their fields know to be true.u can cite all the odd opinions you want. what is NOW accepted as fact is that humans have had an impact on global warming. at least as close to a 'fact' as we can get at this stage.remember, the world's leading authority on global warming has stated this. now do you people see how the comparison to DN is quite literally, lacking? he is an expert, but not a committee of the world's foremost experts. he is one person.(how did DN ever get dragged into this mess?)

[SCYUKON 0]

it's really quite funny that there are posters here who actually THINK global warming, and the human impact on it, is not reality.oh, it's just what the OVERWHELMING MAJORITY of climatologists and experts in their fields know to be true.u can cite all the odd opinions you want. what is NOW accepted as fact is that humans have had an impact on global warming. at least as close to a 'fact' as we can get at this stage.remember, the world's leading authority on global warming has stated this. now do you people see how the comparison to DN is quite literally, lacking? he is an expert, but not a committee of the world's foremost experts. he is one person.(how did DN ever get dragged into this mess?)

You realize of course that everyone else is over on the AB scandal and no one gives a crap about this thread at the moment. Just found out about it tonight. If you haven't, check it out.But if you want to talk science, I am game. I went to University for 7 years, getting a B.Sc. and M.Sc. in Civil Engineering for my efforts (obv. brag post .Hey I agree that anything > 0 can be stated as "having an impact". Has it not been shown that Cow Farts have an impact as well. I am doing my part there by eating lots of steak.In engineering, and other applied sciences for that matter, often times when a theorem is being proved, there is step where it is shown that one term is much much larger than another term, so much so that it is safe to assume the smaller term is 0. The key question though is always, small in comparison to what, before you can assume that something is as good as 0.given the magnitude of natural causes of global warming, in my mind and also that of most skeptics, is much much much larger than any man made cause, so much so that the man made contribution is so small, in relation to the amount which will happen anyways regardless of what the hell anyone does, as to be not worthy of mention. It's like trying to pay off a million dollar home quicker by using the money you save by finding an error on a 50 buck cell phone bill now and then. Sure you can argue that you might find 10 bucks here or there, but what the hell is 10 bucks compared to $1M. The 10 buck savings is related to your bill auditing, no doubt. Just very very small in comparison. If you lived in a 30 buck cardboard box, it would be huge of course, but I doubt you do.And the point of dragging DN into the argument was that by categorizing Dr. Gray as "just one scientist", you diminish his status in the same way that calling DN an average poker player would diminish his. Obv he is not or we would not all be on this forum cheering him on. Dr. Gray's life work should afford him a similar status above the rim, if you will.Now go get your money the hell out of AP is you have any there.

[Zeatrix 0]

It's not only that the cows fart, they burp methane too :)And yeah you are doing your part by eating them, of wait, eating lots of meat means more cattle is being raised which means more emissions. So yeah, eat LESS meat if you want to lower those emissions.You are so dead on when it comes to the need for one term to be significantly bigger than another. It has been clearly shown (just read any of the latest IPCC drafts or peer reviewed articles that the IPCC base their reports on) that the human effect on the current changing climate is much bigger than natural causes, so the step you are referring to has been considered. This is actually one of the key areas of focus on climate studies, how much is human caused and how much is natural. Modern science says human causes are the major contributor, but you already knew this.What boggles my mind is how deniers keep repeating that we should look at the facts before jumping to conclusions when they themselves clearly aren't doing it. The facts are in boys, our emissions are causing a steep rise in global average temperature. Not believing that to be true is blindly believing a minority that have no scientific data to back it up with, just their guts. So, figuratively speaking, do you trust Walter Cronkite or Stephen Colbert? (Tom Brokaw seems like a trustworthy guy too)

[SCYUKON 0]

It has been clearly shown (just read any of the latest IPCC drafts or peer reviewed articles that the IPCC base their reports on) that the human effect on the current changing climate is much bigger than natural causes, so the step you are referring to has been considered.

Hmmn - it is just the opposite for the items I have run across.Can you give me some links to these articles please. I would be curious to see how they arrived at their determinations. In particular, I would be curious to see what type of statistics they are using to determine a causative effect. I mean it is not like they can say "hey everyone in the world don't cause any pollution for a year while we see the impact on global warming", can they. I.e. what type of scientific rigor is involved? ThanksDp.s. re the eat less meat, I knew the vegetarians like DN had it right all along. Oh well I supposed part of the 30 bucks I pay for a good steak could be used as a carbon offset of some form.

[Tiltinagain 973]

Why is this thread still going? I mean, AlGore won the MF'ing NOBEL PEACE PRIZE for crying out loud so it MUST be true!!>.7 degree's and he gets a Nobel Peace prize. Who do you think he has pictures of?

[SCYUKON 0]

Why is this thread still going? I mean, AlGore won the MF'ing NOBEL PEACE PRIZE for crying out loud so it MUST be true!!>.7 degree's and he gets a Nobel Peace prize. Who do you think he has pictures of?

Agreed - let's take it in a different direction. Your Avatar is the greatest (BY FAR) in the history of FCP. I have scientific evidence of that.

[Zeatrix 0]

Agreed - let's take it in a different direction. Your Avatar is the greatest (BY FAR) in the history of FCP. I have scientific evidence of that.

Only empirical knowledge from one subject (you looking down at your crouch and noticing the boner you've got) is not science, it's strictly anecdotal.

[SCYUKON 0]

Only empirical knowledge from one subject (you looking down at your crouch and noticing the boner you've got) is not science, it's strictly anecdotal.

Well it eventually went away, but then another time, it came back........ sample of two observations? Wait, now 3.. That avator works better than viagra!

[coesillian 0]

Hmmn - it is just the opposite for the items I have run across.Can you give me some links to these articles please. I would be curious to see how they arrived at their determinations. In particular, I would be curious to see what type of statistics they are using to determine a causative effect. I mean it is not like they can say "hey everyone in the world don't cause any pollution for a year while we see the impact on global warming", can they. I.e. what type of scientific rigor is involved? ThanksDp.s. re the eat less meat, I knew the vegetarians like DN had it right all along. Oh well I supposed part of the 30 bucks I pay for a good steak could be used as a carbon offset of some form.

http://www.ipcc.ch/read up buddy. you're comments make civil engineers look dumber than letting bridges collapse/

[All_In 0]

given the magnitude of natural causes of global warming, in my mind and also that of most skeptics, is much much much larger than any man made cause, so much so that the man made contribution is so small, in relation to the amount which will happen anyways regardless of what the hell anyone does, as to be not worthy of mention.

the key part is 'in [your] mind'. opinions are nice, but they are not that insightful when compared to facts. if the experts (and they are REAL experts, not 'experts' as someone else posted earlier) say humans have had a negative effect on the earth's climate, how can an opinion override it?

It's like trying to pay off a million dollar home quicker by using the money you save by finding an error on a 50 buck cell phone bill now and then. Sure you can argue that you might find 10 bucks here or there, but what the hell is 10 bucks compared to $1M. The 10 buck savings is related to your bill auditing, no doubt. Just very very small in comparison. If you lived in a 30 buck cardboard box, it would be huge of course, but I doubt you do.

i understand what u r saying. but what if 100 000 people contributed $10 each? not so insignificant anymore. that's the whole thing, if everyone did a little, the cumulative effects would be noticeable.

And the point of dragging DN into the argument was that by categorizing Dr. Gray as "just one scientist", you diminish his status in the same way that calling DN an average poker player would diminish his. Obv he is not or we would not all be on this forum cheering him on. Dr. Gray's life work should afford him a similar status above the rim, if you will.

i think it's a more accurate comparison by saying DN is "just one poker player". i never said dr. gray was an average scientist, tho i understand what u r saying.still, one opinion is a lot less credible, no matter who it's from, if it goes against the consensus of the world's experts. sure, occasionally a person may have a great insight into something that proves to be correct, but with science, the consensus wins out.

Now go get your money the hell out of AP is you have any there.

[akoff 0]

i understand what u r saying. but what if 100 000 people contributed $10 each? not so insignificant anymore. that's the whole thing, if everyone did a little, the cumulative effects would be noticeable.

Pyramid schemes suck…

[Loismustdie 0]

The thing is..and this is the part where I recognize that I AM being sensible.. is if what all the experts are saying is true, then it's too late. Right now the most massive effort would be like trying to stop a speeding bus by throwing a newborn baby at it. The bus wont stop, and everybody will just be really uncomfortable. The cumulative effects would most definitely not be noticed. Were still gonna go splat.

[All_In 0]

The thing is..and this is the part where I recognize that I AM being sensible.. is if what all the experts are saying is true, then it's too late. Right now the most massive effort would be like trying to stop a speeding bus by throwing a newborn baby at it. The bus wont stop, and everybody will just be really uncomfortable. The cumulative effects would most definitely not be noticed. Were still gonna go splat.

it's not too late. it's just that there is a lag period before the positive effects are noticed.if u heat a pot of water, then take it off the stove, the water still remains hot for a while. this may not be the best analogy, but it's similar.

[Loismustdie 0]

it's not too late. it's just that there is a lag period before the positive effects are noticed.if u heat a pot of water, then take it off the stove, the water still remains hot for a while. this may not be the best analogy, but it's similar.

That is literally the funniest thing I have read in this whole thread. Lol at the pride of man to think we have that much control over the inevitable. It makes me realize- again- how you can have all the book smarts in the world and still be completely naive. BTW, I finally watched a bit of Gores movie last night, and have never felt more pandered to, or seen such a blatant attempt at indoctrination. This is aimed at 2 things- children and sheep. Kiddie videos talking about Noahs ark do a better job of hiding the agenda- and this guy wins the Nobel peace prize? For what? A movie that amounts to many, many documented outright lies, and fear mongering. I will tell you this- it's gonna take more than a ****ing cartoon with a kid with a melting ice cream to convince me, that is for damn sure. Not to mention, convince me that it matters- the earth has gone through many changes that man had nothing to do with, what makes us think we can stop it? Ice ages, heatwaves, dry times, wet times, floods, no floods, plague, no plague, we CANNOT control everything. It is impossible, and the truth is- of course, no one will tell you this- that is what scares them, the not knowing- and, at this point, any answer will do. It truly is comical to watch.

[akoff 0]

BTW, I finally watched a bit of Gores movie last night, and have never felt more pandered to, or seen such a blatant attempt at indoctrination. Are you really shocked by that?Kiddie videos talking about Noahs ark do a better job of hiding the agenda- and this guy wins the Nobel peace prize? For what? He spent 8 years with Clinton...nobody was better at hiding an agenda then Bill....A movie that amounts to many, many documented outright lies, and fear mongering. No...I am shocked, Al Gore not being honest!!It truly is comical to watch.It was made by Al Gore....of course it is stupid. He makes Bush seem smooth, thoughtful and smart!!

[All_In 0]

That is literally the funniest thing I have read in this whole thread. Lol at the pride of man to think we have that much control over the inevitable. It makes me realize- again- how you can have all the book smarts in the world and still be completely naive.

care to explain why u think this way, or do u think expletives and insults accomplish that?

[Loismustdie 0]

care to explain why u think this way, or do u think expletives and insults accomplish that?

Expletive- I think the only one I used was in reference to a cartoon, as in ****ing cartoon. And, I think this way because I have what is called uncommon sense, in that it's not very common anymore. If you learn one thing about me in this paragraph, learn this: I don't believe we have control over everything, and when you think about it, real control is an illusion- we have none. The Earth will do as it does, as we have evidence from past years it will do- there is no stopping it. If it wants to blow 1OO MPH 80 degree winds, it will- as it always does. Somewhere, today, it is the hottest day on record- and, somewhere, it is the coldest. The fact that we can observe it means squat, except that we can observe it. I am sure early man, when it started to get cold, went, "Man, it is cold. How can we stop this?" They probably prayed to a God or idol or whatever, but mostly they probably just tried to stay warm, skins and fire and so on- probably tried to keep the kids warm, and inevitably the cold took them, and there was not a damn thing they could do about it. That's life- I am sure anyone that lives near a volcano wishes they could stop volcanoes, but they realize they cannot. So, the earth may be getting warmer. O.k.- that's better than colder. Of course, no one mentions that. Less cold equals longer time to grow, which means less hunger. No one mentions that. Heat is manageable- did you know that cold kills more people on a yearly basis? As a whole, humans adapt to heat better. Spend a day in Arizona and a day in Iceland, out in the open, and you will see what I am talking about. So, if anything, if we are effecting the Earth, it sure is doing it's best to keep us around. So, we lose some land, because oceans rise, and some people as well. Ok. That's fine- we cannot save everybody, people die all the time, and there is nothing we can do about it. That's life. Meanwhile, to save them Mr. Gore wants to put the hammer down on improving conditions, lifestyle in Africa, because the Earth couldn't handle it if they were to improve upon there life. We sure have come a long way from USA for Africa, haven't we? What happened to that? Now, Africa is the sacrifice so we can..what? Improve life? No. Save some Polar bears and Walrus and shit.... when did that become a priority over humans? Species die off all of the time, and are replaced by new ones all of the time, why do we get so attached? There are so many other angles to this then just, "It's getting hot in here" that it blows my mind that people just blindly follow whatever is on the big screen like it's gospel. It's sad that education has hit such a low point that smart people, like yourself, don't look at this movie and just have a good laugh- that's what comedy is supposed to do!! You are supposed to laugh, as I did many times, but instead you took it seriously? Then, so did the good people who hand out the Nobel Peace prize? What? Really? But... there are outright lies in there. Why not just give a random hobo NFL MVP- But, he doesn't play for the NFL. He talks to himself and smells like feet. No mind, he exemplifies what we look for in an NFL player. Much like that scenario we have completely lost our collective minds when the status quo becomes don't question, and if you do question never mind the answers, and if the answers don't make sense don't question the answers, just follow the herd like a good boy. Not me, not ever. I see through the bullshit.

[SCYUKON 0]

I heard a great bit by George Carlin on an XM comedy channel about man being so arrogant as to think he can save the earth. The gist of it was, the earth will survive, it always survives. Mankind might be screwed - but the earth will survive.Its kind of like thinking we can control earthquakes or wildfires when the wind is blowing severely. We simply do our best to react to whatever abuse good old Mother Nature decides to heap on us. It's pretty one sided really.Great response though, Lois. Sums up my position exactly. I used to do computer modelling for long range traffic planning, and also for revenue forecasting for a major utility. It is amazing how the output of a large model can get tied so much to the input assumptions. But at least we had some observable data, cause and effect, to work with, in calibrating the models before we turned them loose on a forecast. I wonder what type of cause and effect data is being used to actually calibrate these models predicting doom and gloom. I mean do we have the historical data and doom and gloom from 1000 years ago to calibrate our models with? Or are they just models that have never been calibrated (because they could not) and simply turned loose to produce the D&G forecasts.Done with the keystrokes on this.

[seemorenuts 0]

PerspectiveDon't get me wrong. I still think the original topic deals with a real problem, a serious one.