Maybe I Suck At The Endgame

[timwakefield 68]

i like you.

That's because he's always right.My initial thought before reading responses was to fold PF. You could also raise or push to steal, I just don't like calling with K-high there even in position against the one guy who can bust you. KQ whiffs a lot of flops, and you can get away from it for free, so I think you should.I also think checking might be the best play on the flop, but I wouldn't be looking to fold unless an ace fell. If he led out the flop I'd raise.

[simo_8ball 0]

risk averse is not the same as avoiding those that can bust you with marginal holdings. i suppose if you don't agree that cEV does not equal $EV we are not going to agree on the matter.

Risk aversion is the reluctance of a person to accept a bargain with an uncertain payoff rather than another bargain with a more certain but possibly lower expected payoff. (Wikipedia)Here you are sacrificing positive equity on a higher variance (more uncertain) play to save your tournament life.I agree that cEV does not equal $EV. It does approximate it though. Considering that in a large tournament, usually around 50% of the prizepool goes to the top three places (from Poker.com):

Place   10-29  30-49   50-99  100-199 200-299 300-399 400-499  500-749   750+1st 	50% 	40% 	30% 	30% 	27% 	26% 	25% 	25% 	 25%2nd 	30% 	25% 	20% 	20% 	18% 	17% 	16% 	15% 	 14%3rd 	20% 	15% 	12% 	10% 	 9% 	 8% 	 8% 	7.5% 	7.5%4th 			12% 	10% 	 8% 	 7% 	 6% 	 6% 	5.5% 	5%5th 			 8% 	 8% 	 6% 	 6% 	 5% 	 5% 	4.5% 	4.25%6th 					 6% 	 5% 	 5% 	 4% 	 4% 	3.5% 	3.5%7th 					 5%	  4% 	 4% 	 3% 	 3% 	3% 	  2.75%8th 					 4%	  3% 	 3% 	 2.5%	2.5%   2.5% 	2.25%9th 					 3% 	 2.25%   2% 	 2% 	 2% 	2% 	  1.75%10th 					2% 	 1.75%   1.5%	1.5%	1.5%   1.5% 	1.5%11th-20th 					   1% 	 1% 	 1% 	 1% 	 1% 	 1%

There is no significand 'jump' in prize money until you get from 4th to 3rd usually. That is far enough away that it is not worth passing up +cEV situations to move up the pay scale. In a top 3 paid sitngo cEV only begins to diverge from $EV in any significant way when you are down to about 5 places. Also, if you win this hand you will gain a lot of leverage as the chip leader. You should be able to steal blinds far more regularly and it will be easier to grind your way up further.I think everyone is overrestimating how much of an edge it is possible to consistently get with an effective M of almost exactly 5 if you fold (60k left, 7200 paid per round = M of 8.3. 6/10 people at the table so Effective M = 8.3 x 0.6 = 5). If you win this hand your effective M will be over 15 and you are very comfortable. I really don't see how this is even close. Even more so if the blinds go up fairly soon.

And I would argue that "playing to win" when you are already deep into the payout structure is overvalued. Stacks are deep enough here to pick up chips from small stacks, and from the big stacks when you have a much more significant edge.

I'm interested - what would be your move if we had AdQd here?

[mk 11]

no idea why this hand generated so much discussion. the only real decision is preflop. 6-handed vs. a player who's been opening a lot of pots, i don't think you can muck KQs. the only decision is if you want to take a flop or attempt a re-steal. i think this decision is fairly close given your stack size. after this flop, if you consider folding, umm....gl winning a tournament.

[copernicus 0]

I'm interested - what would be your move if we had AdQd here?

AQd we have to play preflop, and are probably taking all the way. There are only 7 hands we are behind to, QQ, 77, 33, and we have 11 outs against 6/7 of those and 9 against the other one, so we are about 42% to win when were behind. Assuming a similar amount of money went into the pot there is way too much tEV to walk away from, so we may as well repush against his raise.

[simo_8ball 0]

AQd we have to play preflop, and are probably taking all the way. There are only 7 hands we are behind to, QQ, 77, 33, and we have 9 outs against 6/7 of those and 9 against the other one, so we are about 29.7% to win when were behind. Assuming a similar amount of money went into the pot there is way too much tEV to walk away from, so we may as well repush against his raise.

FYPWe only have 9 outs against any set, and against QQ,77,33 we are 29.7%.My thoughts are exactly the same as yours, but I hold the same to be true for KdQd. It's also not possible for him to have the Adxd if we hold the Ad.

[Shizzmoney 0]

I'm probably the only one to do this (and I'm not saying it because of the potential results)....but I check behind on the flop. I think that's the "aggressive" play heads up. You've flopped the world: top pair, flush draw.....you don't want to lose this guy.BUT I also want to keep the pot small as I called a raise. If *I* was the raiser, I would of probably bet/re-raise here. But I check behind on a flop like this with the KdQd as our villian may have AA (or KK and QQ, but unlikely since you have one of each), AQ, or even a set of 7's.......... and I don't want to be check-raised out of my flush draw. I want to keep the pot small until I hit big, where my implied odds would shine through vs those hands (unless the 77 boats up at some point). Plus I'm playing it aggressive.....if he happen to have absolute garbage, I want him to see my check as weak and induce c-bets on prospective streets.So check behind and see a freebie. If he bets out huge on a safe turn, I think you are assured you are beat 60%-70% of the time here, and you can lay down (unless you got some gamble with you). If he bets small on the turn, he's either bluffing with a hand like 99 or sometype of gutshot with a high card hand (which you obviously crush), I'd take the odds and try to improve on the end. The way YOU played it, however, I think you did the right thing. Although you are only called by a hand that beats you, you still have a decent drawing hand as well as a hand that can improve with MORE than the flush vs AA, KK, or AQ.

[SlackerInc 0]

Interesting feisty debate! I personally would have played the hand the exact same way as the OP. I did think BWToth made some valid points in his "upon further review" post (and I like his Dem donkey as well <g>). Still though, I think simo makes strong points, and overall I still get pulled back to the feeling that the original play was the right one.Copernicus, I see what you mean about being cautious going up against the big stacks, but on the other side of the coin isn't that, to paraphrase the old saying about why people rob banks, "where the money is"? And with a hand like this, it's not as though there's any hand he can flip over where we say "oops, I'm dead", KWIM?

[copernicus 0]

Interesting feisty debate! I personally would have played the hand the exact same way as the OP. I did think BWToth made some valid points in his "upon further review" post (and I like his Dem donkey as well <g>). Still though, I think simo makes strong points, and overall I still get pulled back to the feeling that the original play was the right one.Copernicus, I see what you mean about being cautious going up against the big stacks, but on the other side of the coin isn't that, to paraphrase the old saying about why people rob banks, "where the money is"? And with a hand like this, it's not as though there's any hand he can flip over where we say "oops, I'm dead", KWIM?

If you knock off a few small banks first you can buy some heavy artillery to try and invade Fort Knox.

[DrZebra 0]

Best flop plays in order:1. Check behind2. Open shove3. Bet 16k

[DrZebra 0]

PS. I used to have the same problem. Quit trying to double up late in the tournament. Taking 20% of the pots uncontested is what wins tourneys.

[navybuttons 15]

Taking 20% of the pots uncontested is what wins tourneys.

THANK YOU!