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First Hand Of A $10+$1 Stt, Nut Flush Draw


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First off, I think I made a significant error in not raising preflop. Nonetheless:Pokerstars $10+$1 STT, stacks all at 1500, blinds 10/20Hero is on the button with K :club: J :D Preflop: 1 fold, UTG1 calls, UTG2 calls, 2 folds, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls, BB raises to 80, UTG1 calls, UTG2 folds, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls.Flop (420 in pot): A :D 2 :D 2 :) SB checks, BB bets 200, 1 fold, CO raises to 500, Hero ???I'm either up against two aces or an A and a 2. A2s and AA are remote possibilities, but I'm not too worried about it because I'm such a mellow personality. With 1120 in the pot and two characters more-or-less committed, should I just push here and try to hit gin on the first hand? The choice is sitting safe with 1420 early (and I will be able to accumulate chips later) or 1420 now to win 4680, 4040, 3540, or go busto. I doubt that I have FE against both opponents. Pokerstove informs me that I have 27% equity against an A and a 2, or 36% equity against two A's.Edited to fix flop action (UTG1 folded)

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I'd say it's an easy fold... it's early, you only have 80 invested, and you could be drawing dead.These $10 180's are just about as donkalicious as the $4.40's.... Just wait it out and you'll have the nuts against someone w/ middle pair and get it all in the middle.Fold.EDIT: Noticed it was a STT.... Meh... I think i still fold, no reason to gamble against this many people with a hand that could be dead.

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bleh I like gambling with the NFD as much as anyone early, but I hate doing it on paired boards with heavy action. A 2 may be unlikely - I'd figure the CO for some ragged ace - but I don't see us having much FE, which is what we need to make this move defensible.

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Yup. I just ran the equity based on a 36% chance of winning. The only time pushing is +cEV is when they both fold (obv) or when they both call and neither has a deuce. If just one calls with an A, it's -cEV. And realistically if one of them calls a push, he's probably got a deuce. I may have some FE if they both hold AX, but at a $10+$1 I kinda doubt it.Mark this question as being results-oriented. I folded and would've hit for the win. The two jokers got all-in behind me on the flop with AK in BB and A5(!) in CO.

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