Postseason Awards

[timwakefield 68]

a competant starter is more valuable than the same caliber of reliever. Easy

Correct, but Papelbon wasn't just competent, he was awesome.

[TMoneyBags 0]

you guys have to see if he can perform as a starter, and then if he cant, you can always move him back to the pen.

[TMoneyBags 0]

well, seeing as this thread was more who we thought was deserving of the award, its hard to grade how we did. But on the awards, I only went 4 for 7. kinda weak, considering everyone that has held a baseball got Santana right.

[MDXS 0]

Yeah, the inngins may be higher leverage, but just think, no one has every thought about moving Santana/Clemens/Pedro into relief. Starters are more important.

There's talk of making Clemens the closer in Boston.

[greatwhite 0]

There's talk of making Clemens the closer in Boston.

I don't see this happening.

[aadams_22 3]

NL MVP: Ryan Howard

[MDXS 0]

I don't see this happening.

Neither do I.

[mrdannyg 274]

NL MVP: Ryan Howard

it should've been pujols.pujols had better all-around stats, better defence, and his team made the playoffs.agree/disagree?

[timwakefield 68]

it should've been pujols.pujols had better all-around stats, better defence, and his team made the playoffs.agree/disagree?

Well I picked Howard earlier in this thread, so I guess I disagree. Pujols' team made the playoffs, barely, but he was on a better team. The Phillies made a nice run at the WC, and without Howard they woulda had no shot. Without Pujols the Cards probably miss the playoffs too, but it's not Howard's fault that the Cards had a better pitching staff. He was at least as valuable to his team as Pujols was to his. Pujols gets the defensive edge, but his offensive numbers are not decidedly better:Pujols: .331/.431/.671, 49 HR, 137 RBI, 535 ABHoward: .313/.425/.659, 58 HR, 149 RBI, 581 ABYeah Pujols has a slight edge in BA, OBP, and SLG, but the differences are really very small. And although Pujols missed some time, his AB/HR is still worse. Howard hit a longball about once every 10 AB, Pujols about once every 11. I think it's really a tossup, but the 9 extra hrs are what puts Howard over the top.

[mrdannyg 274]

Well I picked Howard earlier in this thread, so I guess I disagree. Pujols' team made the playoffs, barely, but he was on a better team. The Phillies made a nice run at the WC, and without Howard they woulda had no shot. Without Pujols the Cards probably miss the playoffs too, but it's not Howard's fault that the Cards had a better pitching staff. He was at least as valuable to his team as Pujols was to his. Pujols gets the defensive edge, but his offensive numbers are not decidedly better:Pujols: .331/.431/.671, 49 HR, 137 RBI, 535 ABHoward: .313/.425/.659, 58 HR, 149 RBI, 581 ABYeah Pujols has a slight edge in BA, OBP, and SLG, but the differences are really very small. And although Pujols missed some time, his AB/HR is still worse. Howard hit a longball about once every 10 AB, Pujols about once every 11. I think it's really a tossup, but the 9 extra hrs are what puts Howard over the top.

I agree that it was close. They each had some better and some worse numbers. If you look at BP, Pujols is somewhat significantly better in WARP3, VORP and defensive stats. Also, Howard has a ton of strikeouts.Seems like Howard has a small edge in a few categories (9 homers being the only big one), while Pujols has somewhat large edges in a few categories. Add that Pujols' team made the playoffs (I know he had a better surrounding cast), and it seems easy.I never really bought into the 'he already has one' or 'more is expected from him' types. that's alright for all-star voting, but not for MVP, IMO.

[Zealous Donkey 0]

I agree that it was close. They each had some better and some worse numbers. If you look at BP, Pujols is somewhat significantly better in WARP3, VORP and defensive stats. Also, Howard has a ton of strikeouts.Seems like Howard has a small edge in a few categories (9 homers being the only big one), while Pujols has somewhat large edges in a few categories. Add that Pujols' team made the playoffs (I know he had a better surrounding cast), and it seems easy.I never really bought into the 'he already has one' or 'more is expected from him' types. that's alright for all-star voting, but not for MVP, IMO.

Really, they should just make a simple little formula of RBIs and HRs and let that system elect the MVP. Those are the glory stats and apparently the BWAA doesn't look any deeper than those anyway. Howard had a monster year, but Pujols is better in every other catagory.The gap between them in this area continues to expand... If Howard gets the MVP, going to be interesting to see how the voters talk their way around this one... Pujols RISP: .398 Howard RISP: 240 Pujols RISP 2 out: .439 Howard RISP 2 out: .227 Also, Pujols has driven in 78 runs when he's had those runners in scoring position. And Howard has driven in 74. But what makes that interesting is, Pujols has driven in FOUR MORE runs than Howard with RISP even though Howards HAS HAD 40 MORE AT-BATS in those situations. And with RISP and two outs, Howard has driven in 30 runs in 75 at-bats; Pujols has driven in 30 on only 41 at-bats. This is why, under the Harball Times "clutch" ratings system, Pujols ranks No. 3 in the NL with a rating of plus 11.7. And Howard ranks 75th in the NL with a rating of minus 9.5. This was by Bernie Miklas Forum in mid or late september.

[timwakefield 68]

If Howard gets the MVP, going to be interesting to see how the voters talk their way around this one... Pujols RISP: .398 Howard RISP: 240 Pujols RISP 2 out: .439 Howard RISP 2 out: .227

He already got it. Interesting rundown of "clutch" numbers though. Obviously Pujols is a beast in those situations, and Howard maybe was trying too hard? Dunno.

[greatwhite 0]

Morneau undeservingly wins the MVP.

[Zealous Donkey 0]

He already got it. Interesting rundown of "clutch" numbers though. Obviously Pujols is a beast in those situations, and Howard maybe was trying too hard? Dunno.

Yes, that was a quote from Bernie Miklaz of the ST. Louis post dispatch in late september.

[TMoneyBags 0]

Morneau undeservingly wins the MVP.

Hey now. I don't think that undeserving is appropriate. I agree that he wasn't the most deserving, but thats the BWAA for you

[MDXS 0]

I agree that it was close. They each had some better and some worse numbers. If you look at BP, Pujols is somewhat significantly better in WARP3, VORP and defensive stats. Also, Howard has a ton of strikeouts.Seems like Howard has a small edge in a few categories (9 homers being the only big one), while Pujols has somewhat large edges in a few categories. Add that Pujols' team made the playoffs (I know he had a better surrounding cast), and it seems easy.

Howard had a great year, but that 3.5 win gap in WARP is reeeaaalll hard to ignore.

[greatwhite 0]

Howard had a great year, but that 3.5 win gap in WARP is reeeaaalll hard to ignore.

I'm really curious how WARP is calculated. It's probablly the most useful stat in baseball, but I wonder how it's calculated and the logic behind it.

[MDXS 0]

I'm really curious how WARP is calculated. It's probablly the most useful stat in baseball, but I wonder how it's calculated and the logic behind it.

I wouldn't say it's the most useful. It's quick and dirty and gives a decent relative value. There are some issues with it, mainly deriving from what WARP considers replacement level to be.Perhaps a better number to consider is VORP. From what I understand, it's thought to be more reliable than VORP. It does not take defense into account (whereas WARP does....though with questionable metrics behind it), but it does take position into account. If a shortstop and a first basemen put up equal numbers, the shortstop's VORP would be higher because your average shortstop is not as good of a hitter. I generally refer to WARP because the stat is easier for me to dredge up.VORP for top MVP candidates....rank is for all of ML (and keep in mind defense is not included, so a legit gold glover like Pujols gets extra credit)1. Pujols 85.42. Howard 81.53. Jeter 80.54. Hafner 79.75. Cabrera 78.76. Ortiz 76.87. Berkman 70.19. Beltran 68.510. Mauer 66.915. Dye 64.626. Morneau 52.0and for the hell of it...33. Soriano 48.2Would you give Ray Durham or Robinson Cano 8/136? Cause that's who he's sandwiched between....Pitching VORP is a little different, but same principle. Santana unsuprisingly lead the majors with a 79.6. Liriano lead AL rookies.

[TMoneyBags 0]

What I would like to know is WPA/AB

[MDXS 0]

What I would like to know is WPA/AB

Okee doke. Using the link from the other page, here's WPA/AB (multiplied by 100 to give a better number and makes the number a percentage). WPA/PA would probably be better, but AB's an easier stat to find.Ortiz 1.44Hafner 0.98Jeter 0.96Dye 0.95Ramirez 0.90Morneau 0.75Mauer 0.45 (suprising!)Hillenbrand -0.48And some other notables not involved in the AL MVP race:Pujols 1.73Howard 1.41I wish I had batting WPA for Josh Beckett, who posted a 1.286 OPS this year.

[TMoneyBags 0]

sweet. as always you deliver. yeah, you may be surprised by Mauer's .45 but no one that watches the Twins regularly. Of course, like you said WPA/PA would be a slightly better number, and in Mauer's case would raise his number (relative to the others).

[mrdannyg 274]

Okee doke. Using the link from the other page, here's WPA/AB (multiplied by 100 to give a better number and makes the number a percentage). WPA/PA would probably be better, but AB's an easier stat to find.Ortiz 1.44Hafner 0.98Jeter 0.96Dye 0.95Ramirez 0.90Morneau 0.75Mauer 0.45 (suprising!)Hillenbrand -0.48And some other notables not involved in the AL MVP race:Pujols 1.73Howard 1.41I wish I had batting WPA for Josh Beckett, who posted a 1.286 OPS this year.

thank you. I love how LOW Hillenbrand's is. He is such a choking *****.Also, this is a nice answer to all those who argue that they'd rather Ortiz in a clutch situation to Pujols. And by "answer" i mean "you really look stupid now, eh?"edit - Glaus in last place. I am not surprised. Every time I saw his stats, I was bewildered at how good they were, considering last night I'd watched the Jays lose thanks to two Glaus strikeouts with RISP.I hope last year was a fluke, because Glaus really did kill us late in games.

[MDXS 0]

thank you. I love how LOW Hillenbrand's is. He is such a choking *****.Also, this is a nice answer to all those who argue that they'd rather Ortiz in a clutch situation to Pujols. And by "answer" i mean "you really look stupid now, eh?"edit - Glaus in last place. I am not surprised. Every time I saw his stats, I was bewildered at how good they were, considering last night I'd watched the Jays lose thanks to two Glaus strikeouts with RISP.I hope last year was a fluke, because Glaus really did kill us late in games.

I love it when Hillenbrand chokes too.This isn't the best answer for those who have watched the destruction Ortiz reaps in clutch situations. The fact that he's got like an .850 OBP in close games with the game on the line the last couple years is hard to ignore. THe thing to keep in mind with those numbers is that they take into account EVERY at bat, not just "clutch" situations. Pujols is easily the better hitter, and thus we'd expect this number to be higher for him. What to note is that Ortiz is second to Pujols, and is 50% better than anyone else in the AL. But yeah, maybe they look stupid.Here's WPA for the AL in the last four years:Ortiz 23.22Ramirez 15.89Rodriguez 15.04Sheffield 13.61Guerrero 13.57Giambi 11.63Jeter 10.82Hafner 10.20Thomas 10.02Teixeira 9.11Ortiz is lapping the field by an obscene margin. Give me a few minutes an I may turn up Pujols in the same time frame.Edit: Pujols 24.31Considering that Ortiz is not the hitter that Pujols is, this gap is small.Fangraphs also has a "clutchiness" number. I have no idea what this measures or how they get the number. Higher is better. Here as these two for the last four years, most recent to least:Ortiz: 2.29, 3.72, -0.42, 0.25Pujols: 2.67, -2.16, -0.22, -0.88I'm going to find out where these numbers come from, but it looks like a HUGE win for Ortiz and his "clutchness" these past four years.EDIT2: Clutchiness = WPA - (OPS wins * pLI)Okay, what does that mean? OPS wins has a rather involved formula. It appears that it is designed to measure is wins above replacement based on a weighted analysis of OPS' component parts. pLI is average leverage index per plate appearance. It's an interesting stat. I'll need to think more about it to decide how good it is.

[MDXS 0]

Eric Van weighed in on WPA at SoSH. He even mentioned the clutchiness stat I dug up earlier. The gist:"BP found that clutchiness has a small predictive value -- the r^2 of a player's clutchiness in their even-numbered seasons with that of their odd-nunmbered seasons is .10, meaning that 10% of observed clutchiness is skill and 90% is luck. (Their measure of clutchiness uses a more accurate clutch-neutral predicted WPA than fangraphs.com).If you look at the clutchiness track records of everyone in MLB, you might reasonably conclude that three guys -- Papi, Pujols, and Beltran -- appear to have established themselves as genuinely clutch. (Hence ESPN quoting me to that effect re Beltran.)"He then posted what his ballot would be for AL MVP:1. Jeter (2, 306)2. Ortiz (3, 193)3. Dye (5, 156)4. Santana (7, 114)5. Mauer (6, 116)6. Morneau (1, 320)7. Guillen (10, 34)8. Sizemore (11, 24)9. Posada (--)10. Young (t30, 1)I'd click the link to see how he arrived at the list. It's good reading for the stats-inclined (and perhaps even if you aren't). It's all at the bottom of the page.....posts 119 and 120.

[timwakefield 68]

MDG, maybe this will make you see why we all in Boston think Ortiz is the greatest clutch hitter ever. I don't have these specific numbers in front of me so I don't know all the details, but the parts I do remember I know are correct - Going back to 2004 (and I think it includes the playoffs), Ortiz has come to bat 19 times with a chance to win the game, i.e. bottom 9th or later, Sox either trailing and with men on base, or tied game. 19 times. SIXTEEN TIMES he has reached base. 16/19. I don't have the number of walk-offs he has in those 19 at-bats, but in SEVEN, yes SEVEN OF NINETEEN, he has hit a game winning homerun. SEVEN OF NINETEEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!