TheDaveyG 6 Posted March 21, 2006 Share Posted March 21, 2006 I figured I would ask a bunch of poker players about this.On the show Deal or No Deal, how do they determine what to offer the player? Has anyone figured out their formula? Link to post Share on other sites
SunDrop 0 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 I'm pretty sure it's just the average of the remaining/unseen amounts. I haven't done the math, but it makes sense. Link to post Share on other sites
Marxuach 0 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 Yeah, by averages. Link to post Share on other sites
Petoria 0 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 It's gotta be a little less than average. Because otherwise the show would be no fun. A math guy would take the money right away. I think they try to make it just slightly below zero expectation, therefore it's correct to continue.I've only seen the show one time, though, and I didnt work out the math on it. Link to post Share on other sites
Got The Nutz 0 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 watched it last night its not averages but i cant tell for sure if there is a formula Link to post Share on other sites
TheDaveyG 6 Posted March 22, 2006 Author Share Posted March 22, 2006 Yeah it's not just averages of amounts left, cause it's also has to do something with how many cases are left and how many they have to open before the next offer. Link to post Share on other sites
crowTrobot 2 Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 Yeah it's not just averages of amounts left, cause it's also has to do something with how many cases are left and how many they have to open before the next offer.that is correct - it is a percentage of the average that goes up with less cases. i don't know the exact formula, but it starts out around 35% of the avg of remaining cases for the first offer, and moves up slowly till with (i think) 5-6 cases left it goes to 50%. i think with 4 or less cases remaining the offer actually goes over 50% (which makes it -EV to keep going). Link to post Share on other sites
Petoria 0 Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 that is correct - it is a percentage of the average that goes up with less cases. i don't know the exact formula, but it starts out around 35% of the avg of remaining cases for the first offer, and moves up slowly till with (i think) 5-6 cases left it goes to 50%. i think with 4 or less cases remaining the offer actually goes over 50% (which makes it -EV to keep going).with 2 cases left to choose from tonight there was a $75, 500, and 750 case left. The deal was 450. So your hypothesis doesnt necessarily hold. Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 with 2 cases left to choose from tonight there was a $75, 500, and 750 case left. The deal was 450. So your hypothesis doesnt necessarily hold.Actually, with those 3 cases left the average would be $441.67 which by my calculations is a little less than the offer they made, so his hypothesis may be correct. Link to post Share on other sites
Petoria 0 Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 Actually, with those 3 cases left the average would be $441.67 which by my calculations is a little less than the offer they made, so his hypothesis may be correct.Good news, I need sleep, bc I can no longer do basic math.good night Link to post Share on other sites
crowTrobot 2 Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 with 2 cases left to choose from tonight there was a $75, 500, and 750 case left. The deal was 450. So your hypothesis doesnt necessarily hold.oops, my bad - wasn't thinking. not sure why my brain was equating "50%" with the total avg - i meant 100% lol. the offers start at well under 100% (probably around 80%) of the avg of remaining cases, and go up slowly till they are over 100% (+EV deal) with a few left.Good news, I need sleep, bc I can no longer do basic math.no, you were right lol. i was thinking right, but didn't word it right. Link to post Share on other sites
yergan 0 Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 Has anyone else noticed that the players "frame of mind" seems to be a factor?The people that seem like they are tight or will take an early offer always seem to get offered less than those that are willing to gamble. Link to post Share on other sites
crowTrobot 2 Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 Has anyone else noticed that the players "frame of mind" seems to be a factor?The people that seem like they are tight or will take an early offer always seem to get offered less than those that are willing to gamble.no. the % of the avg offered always seems related only to the number of cases left. Link to post Share on other sites
TheDaveyG 6 Posted March 24, 2006 Author Share Posted March 24, 2006 Has anyone else noticed that the players "frame of mind" seems to be a factor?The people that seem like they are tight or will take an early offer always seem to get offered less than those that are willing to gamble. I haven't seen any tight players on that show, they wouldn't be on the show if they weren't willing to gamble. Link to post Share on other sites
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