bonehead move?

[JFarrell20 1]

"considering he's not as good as me"?????? - You really have got to be the most arrogant person on this forum.Once again you have shown your ignorance with this post.  You originally asked for advice on whether should you have pushed here and then flame on anyone who suggests that you shouldn't.Don't bother asking for advice if you are not willing to listen and learn from other people's opinions.

Easy, sleazy... calm down. You mean to tell me you cannot tell if a player is generally better than you or worse after 45 minutes of a tournament? That's too bad, good players can. It's not hard to see this when I see the guy chasing a four-flush without the odds early in the tournament. Then he doesn't complete a SB when he's the chipleader with only 4 people left total. Come on... the guy was OK, but definitely weaker than me. This isn't being arrogant, it's called paying attention to the players. I'm surprised this isn't part of your repertoire yet.Even Dominik would agree that this other guy wasn't as good as I.

[rusmac31 0]

Everyone forget about the outcome of the hand.Unless I'm missing something (which is always possible), there are 2 issues:1. If you are dealt A10s in a 4 handed game, you have 5x the blind, everyone folds to you, you're the small blind.Do you call? Raise or Fold? Most people would say "unquestionably raise". However, in this situation any kind of raise commits him to the pot. So it's either all-in or fold. And I can't imagine anyone folding A10s against 1 random hand.2. In the above situation, you move all-in, your opponent calls. You flip over A10s, he/she flips over K10.You have them severely dominated, who wouldn't want all their chips in the middle with such as such a huge favorite?Farrell was a 75% favorite to double up, who wouldn't take that in tournament play?

[KDawgCometh 2]

Everyone forget about the outcome of the hand.Unless I'm missing something (which is always possible), there are 2 issues:1. If you are dealt A10s in a 4 handed game, you have 5x the blind, everyone folds to you, you're the small blind.Do you call? Raise or Fold? Most people would say "unquestionably raise". However, in this situation any kind of raise commits him to the pot. So it's either all-in or fold. And I can't imagine anyone folding A10s against 1 random hand.2. In the above situation, you move all-in, your opponent calls. You flip over A10s, he/she flips over K10.You have them severely dominated, who wouldn't want all their chips in the middle with such as such a huge favorite?Farrell was a 75% favorite to double up, who wouldn't take that in tournament play?

not the point, if he had folded he would've been practcally garunteed at least a cash. Or better yet make a raise and make her fold. People for some reason are more likely to call an allin then they are to a normal raise. If you raise PF and move in on the flop she wouldn't have called you, more than likely

[jogsxyz 0]

You have the wrong goal. You want to optimize your expected value. Forget the $11. The moment you paid your entry it's not your money. By doing nothing you are a heavy favorite to win $20 with chances to win more. By going all in you have real chance to get zero. Against two random cards with no pair you are only about 4-3 favorite. Looks like your play is reducing your expected value.

[dominiksdad 0]

Easy, sleazy... calm down. You mean to tell me you cannot tell if a player is generally better than you or worse after 45 minutes of a tournament? That's too bad, good players can. It's not hard to see this when I see the guy chasing a four-flush without the odds early in the tournament. Then he doesn't complete a SB when he's the chipleader with only 4 people left total. Come on... the guy was OK, but definitely weaker than me. This isn't being arrogant, it's called paying attention to the players. I'm surprised this isn't part of your repertoire yet.Even Dominik would agree that this other guy wasn't as good as I.

I'm not saying that the chipleader is a great player I was just pointing out that you seem to have a much higher opinion of your skills than would seem appropriate.You don't see him risking all of his chip on the bubble when the short-stack is about to be blinded out.And so what if he doesn't complete his SB when there are only 4 people left? Completing the SB when you don't have the cards is just chip spewing!

[rusmac31 0]

You suggest that Farrell should've raised. In that situation how much should he have raised?Hypothetical:1. Let's say Farrell raised to 600, if you are big blind and you can pay half price to see a flop with K10 would you call? I would. I'd be betting 300 for a chance to win 1200. with K10 those odds are worth it against any random hand.The flop had a K, Farrell now has no play here but fold as any bet will surely get a call from big blind (paired their K with decent kicker heads up).So in this scenario, Farrell probably folds the flop and is left with 3x the big blind. This probably guarantees him $20 but severely limits his ability to win the tournament.Hypothetical:2. Let's say Farrell raises to 900, this might have gotten the big blind to fold. But again, in this scenario, the big blind could bet 600 to win 1800. Probably still decent odds to see a flop. If Farrell does this, he's virtually committed to the pot.The standard raise in a NL tourny is 3x - 4x the blind (with no limpers). Help me understand how going all-in here is a bad play?If the goal is to win the tourny, you move all-in. If the goal is to get in the money, you limp, fold. But, who the heck limps in with A10s against 1 random hand?I do agree though that you don't want a call, any hand that calls you probably has you dominated but the odds are A10s is the best hand a good majority of the time.

[rusmac31 0]

AK vs. 1 random hand is about 63% fav.A10 vs. 1 random hand is about 61% fav.Would anyone debate going all-in with AK if you are 5x the big blind?You must raise with it, correct? Standard raise is 3x-4x the pot. Not much difference in raising 5x vs. 4x.Again, if you ignore the result, I think his play was fine.

[KDawgCometh 2]

You suggest that Farrell should've raised. In that situation how much should he have raised?Hypothetical:1. Let's say Farrell raised to 600, if you are big blind and you can pay half price to see a flop with K10 would you call? I would. I'd be betting 300 for a chance to win 1200. with K10 those odds are worth it against any random hand.The flop had a K, Farrell now has no play here but fold as any bet will surely get a call from big blind (paired their K with decent kicker heads up).So in this scenario, Farrell probably folds the flop and is left with 3x the big blind. This probably guarantees him $20 but severely limits his ability to win the tournament.Hypothetical:2. Let's say Farrell raises to 900, this might have gotten the big blind to fold. But again, in this scenario, the big blind could bet 600 to win 1800. Probably still decent odds to see a flop. If Farrell does this, he's virtually committed to the pot.The standard raise in a NL tourny is 3x - 4x the blind (with no limpers). Help me understand how going all-in here is a bad play?If the goal is to win the tourny, you move all-in. If the goal is to get in the money, you limp, fold. But, who the heck limps in with A10s against 1 random hand?I do agree though that you don't want a call, any hand that calls you probably has you dominated but the odds are A10s is the best hand a good majority of the time.

I read it wrong, thought the K came on the turn. Honestly the fold was thwe best option as it isn't a waise idea to risk going out on the bubble with A10o

[dominiksdad 0]

AK vs. 1 random hand is about 63% fav.A10 vs. 1 random hand is about 61% fav.Would anyone debate going all-in with AK if you are 5x the big blind?You must raise with it, correct? Standard raise is 3x-4x the pot. Not much difference in raising 5x vs. 4x.Again, if you ignore the result, I think his play was fine.

I would agree with pushing if there are only 3 players left, but the point at issue is this is not the the time to be risking it all with the short stack likely to be blinded out on the next hand.A10 is a 61% favourite so on average 39 times out of 100 he will finish out of the money.Whereas limping or folding will keep his tourney alive and he will finish in the money probably 97 times out of 100.

[JFarrell20 1]

You have the wrong goal. You want to optimize your expected value. Forget the $11. The moment you paid your entry it's not your money. By doing nothing you are a heavy favorite to win $20 with chances to win more. By going all in you have real chance to get zero. Against two random cards with no pair you are only about 4-3 favorite. Looks like your play is reducing your expected value.

Yeah but if I double up I have a great shot at getting $50.Honestly I was upset when I saw the hand dealt to me because I knew I could fold and make money. I think the poker gods do this to you just to test your will. It sucked that I went out on the bubble, but I think I would have had a hard time sleeping (albeit its only a $10+1 sng) had I limped/folded, or downright folded in the SB with A10 suited. Frankly I wasn't that upset about it b/c I doubled up earlier in the tourney when I sucked out on someone so I had already used my luck card for the game.It seems like folding and taking the "guaranteed" $20 is like buying insurance. I can either lose $11, or win between $9-$39. Tough decision.I wonder....WWGD? (What would Gus do?)I tend to think Gus would have pushed here. What do you guys think?

[JFarrell20 1]

A10 is a 61% favourite so on average 39 times out of 100 he will finish out of the money.

That's IF she calls me. She's got to call first. She hadn't been doing too much of that. I think she finally figured I had a junk hand and was abusing, so she called. She had to be angry when she saw my dominating A 10 get flipped over. I mean she was sittin pretty with 2nd in chips. She certainly was not obligated to call in that situation.

[Briguy 0]

I tend to think Gus would have pushed here. What do you guys think?

Gus is a mathematical genius. He would've folded, because he can see that a 97% return of $20 is marginally better than a 20.333% return of $50 + 20.333% return of $30 + 20.333% return of $10 + 39% return of $0. IMHO. I don't speak for Gus.

[Absolute 0]

Lame

[rusmac31 0]

So for those of you that would fold, what hands would you raise here?AJsAQsAKs1010JJQQI think everyone would agree that KK or AA is a definite raise.

[KDawgCometh 2]

So for those of you that would fold, what hands would you raise here?AJsAQsAKs1010JJQQI think everyone would agree that KK or AA is a definite raise.

AJ is a fold here too, AQ is borderline, AK is without question, IMO. Tens possibly and the same goes for Jacks. Queens is almost an automatic raise. With the utg being unable to get through both of the blinds I'm looking to move up here and let the bubble burst before I start to look to push. Both of the other stacks are very close to yours to where you can really dent them with a push. Lock up the $$$ and then look to win

[rusmac31 0]

KDawg, ok, I can acknowledge your and others point of view on this one.While you guys bring up some good points, I still contend pushing all-in is not a bad play, definitely an aggressive play, but not a bad play in my book.As always, I appreciate the dialogue and different points of view. It definitely helps my game! :-)

[JFarrell20 1]

Lame

You call me lame for questioning what one of the most successful tourney players over the last few years would have done? Give me a break. Gus CALLED...CALLED an all in with 10 8 suited against Antonio Esfandiari's 7-7. Great "read" I guess, but downright aggressive to the Nth degree. Aggression late in the game is typically what gets you first place cash.You, sir, are lame.

[JFarrell20 1]

I tend to think Gus would have pushed here. What do you guys think?

Gus is a mathematical genius. He would've folded, because he can see that a 97% return of $20 is marginally better than a 20.333% return of $50 + 20.333% return of $30 + 20.333% return of $10 + 39% return of $0. IMHO. I don't speak for Gus.

I don't know where you got those numbers from but I'd like to know. I seriously....SERIOUSLY doubt Gus Hansen would FOLD with A10s in the SB in this situation.Lederer wouldn't fold it. Harrington wouldn't fold it.(Insert tight players name here) wouldn't fold it.Let me ask you guys this...if you were in this spot...and you were on TV, and America could see the card-cam, would you still fold? What if, in addition to the prize money, first place nets you some sort of trophy or bracelet? Would you still fold? What I'm trying to find out is, what would it take to get you guys to play for first? The money doesn't seem like incentive enough. And if that's the case, I'm not sure why you'd play poker for money in the first place.

[KDawgCometh 2]

Lame

You call me lame for questioning what one of the most successful tourney players over the last few years would have done? Give me a break. Gus CALLED...CALLED an all in with 10 8 suited against Antonio Esfandiari's 7-7. Great "read" I guess, but downright aggressive to the Nth degree. Aggression late in the game is typically what gets you first place cash.You, sir, are lame.

Have you read the article in CP where Gus talks about that hand? He was also in a essential freeroll. He might not make that play in a bubble situation, actually he wouldn't put all of his chips at risk on the bubble, I can be pretty sure of that

[dominiksdad 0]

A10 is a 61% favourite so on average 39 times out of 100 he will finish out of the money.

That's IF she calls me. She's got to call first. She hadn't been doing too much of that. I think she finally figured I had a junk hand and was abusing, so she called. She had to be angry when she saw my dominating A 10 get flipped over. I mean she was sittin pretty with 2nd in chips. She certainly was not obligated to call in that situation.

She is a lot more likely to call you than anyone of the other players would.She has you covered so worst case scenario for her is she loses, short stack still goes out next hand and she comes in 3rd for $20.If she wins she's the new chip leader and has virtually guaranteed 2nd, therefore she is much more likely to call you with a marginal hand.

[JFarrell20 1]

A10 is a 61% favourite so on average 39 times out of 100 he will finish out of the money.

That's IF she calls me. She's got to call first. She hadn't been doing too much of that. I think she finally figured I had a junk hand and was abusing, so she called. She had to be angry when she saw my dominating A 10 get flipped over. I mean she was sittin pretty with 2nd in chips. She certainly was not obligated to call in that situation.

She is a lot more likely to call you than anyone of the other players would.She has you covered so worst case scenario for her is she loses, short stack still goes out next hand and she comes in 3rd for $20.If she wins she's the new chip leader and has virtually guaranteed 2nd, therefore she is much more likely to call you with a marginal hand.

Good point, but this is not consistent with the strategy I've been advised on over and over in this thread. Which is... "eek your way into the money, then hope to get lucky", more or less.I was in third place, and moving in (with a dominating 4-way hand) on an opportunity to get either 2nd (maybe even 1st) or 4th, and it's a bad idea. This girl is in 2nd and calling (with a nominal 4-way calling hand) on an opportunity to get 1st or 3rd, and it's a good idea???????I'm puzzled. What's the difference? I'm creating the opportunity to advance or retract, while she's calling the same opportunity. I'm not trying to be a jerk, but seriously, how is one bad, yet the other good? Oh, is it because you don't like me? I seriously hope you're above that superficial nonsense, for your kid's sake.

[gobears 0]

Good point, but this is not consistent with the strategy I've been advised on over and over in this thread. Which is... "eek your way into the money, then hope to get lucky", more or less.I was in third place, and moving in (with a dominating 4-way hand) on an opportunity to get either 2nd (maybe even 1st) or 4th, and it's a bad idea. This girl is in 2nd and calling (with a nominal 4-way calling hand) on an opportunity to get 1st or 3rd, and it's a good idea???????I'm puzzled. What's the difference? I'm creating the opportunity to advance or retract, while she's calling the same opportunity. I'm not trying to be a jerk, but seriously, how is one bad, yet the other good? Oh, is it because you don't like me? I seriously hope you're above that superficial nonsense, for your kid's sake.

It's a long thread but I don't recall anyone agreeing with her decision either. Your all-in at this point was not a good play in my opinion; her call was bad as well. You have to realize that she can cover you so even if her bet is poor; she is still around after this hand no matter what.If it wasn't for the fact that the 4th player was so close to going out, then your all-in bet would have been fine.

[JFarrell20 1]

I just wish I'd gotten dealt 6 4 off so I wouldn't have been stuck with such an important decision at such an important time. But, as I said, I shouldn't have even gotten that far b/c from what I remember, I took a big pot off someone earlier when I came from behind. I was lucky to even be 4th. Maybe that had a lot to do with my decision: "I should have been gone earlier, so now I'm playing for first and only first (or second)" lol.

[dominiksdad 0]

Good point, but this is not consistent with the strategy I've been advised on over and over in this thread. Which is... "eek your way into the money, then hope to get lucky", more or less.I was in third place, and moving in (with a dominating 4-way hand) on an opportunity to get either 2nd (maybe even 1st) or 4th, and it's a bad idea. This girl is in 2nd and calling (with a nominal 4-way calling hand) on an opportunity to get 1st or 3rd, and it's a good idea???????I'm puzzled. What's the difference? I'm creating the opportunity to advance or retract, while she's calling the same opportunity. I'm not trying to be a jerk, but seriously, how is one bad, yet the other good? Oh, is it because you don't like me? I seriously hope you're above that superficial nonsense, for your kid's sake.

I never said that her calling with a marginal hand is a good play on her part, I was just pointing out that she is much more likely to call and therefore you are taking a much bigger risk by pushing in here.And I can assure you that all of my posts here have nothing to do with whether I like you or not and everything to do with whether I like your play.

[Briguy 0]

Gus whispered the numbers to me. I hear voices. I wish that the voices were more soothing than Gus Hanson's, but what can you do?Actually, the numbers are as follows: You have a 39% chance of losing to the random BB hand. If you win that hand, despite your clear poker superiority, I'm only assigning you an even 33% chance to take each of 1st, 2nd, or 3rd place in the SNG. It's that simple.Perhaps you prefer to assign a 50% chance at 1st, 40% at 2nd, and 10% at 3rd should you win the all-in A10s hand (EV = $23.4 on the all-in vs. $19.95 on the fold). If that's the case, then congratulations: you made the right move. Really, anyone can make the numbers justify either move just by tweaking the expectations of play after this hand is over.