screech 0 Posted November 3, 2005 Share Posted November 3, 2005 Villain is loose and can be aggressive at times. His stats over 45 hands are 56/6.3/1.06.Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cxPreflop: Hero is SB with Q:heart:, K:heart:. 4 folds, BB calls.Flop: (4 SB) 3:spade:, J:club:, T:diamond: (2 players)Hero bets, BB calls.Turn: (3 BB) K:diamond: (2 players)Hero bets, Hero calls.River: (11 BB) K:spade: (2 players)What's my play? Link to post Share on other sites
brando 0 Posted November 3, 2005 Share Posted November 3, 2005 c/r is out.c/c seems like we miss out on some value.I think the best is b/c and hope he has something like JT.The pot is big so c/c might not be so bad. Link to post Share on other sites
pokerplayer24 0 Posted November 3, 2005 Share Posted November 3, 2005 I think i'm just check calling here. Only hand that we now have beat thanks to that K is J10 and I don't see J1o capping that turn. Q9 has to be a real possibility along with a Kx that boated up. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted November 3, 2005 Share Posted November 3, 2005 Bet/Call.orBet - 3-bet - Call you are ahead more than 2/3 here.I'd go Bet/Call.If after you lead the river he still raises (thus figures to be ahead at least 2/3 of the time) I'd have to slow down.I just think he 3-bets preflop many hands that beat us here.So I definetly think we are ahead enough to lead out... but not 3-bet...although close. Link to post Share on other sites
Briguy 0 Posted November 3, 2005 Share Posted November 3, 2005 Ugh. I can't make up my mind. Against a 56% player, I want to bet/call, to get value out of K-rag and JT. Against the turn cap, I want to check/call, in fear of KJ, KT, JJ, TT, 33, or Q9. Which information should we be using? Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted November 3, 2005 Share Posted November 3, 2005 Ugh. Â I can't make up my mind. Â Against a 56% player, I want to bet/call, to get value out of K-rag and JT. Â Against the turn cap, I want to check/call, in fear of KJ, KT, JJ, TT, 33, or Q9. Â Which information should we be using?how many of those hands you listed would not 3-bet pf HU against a SB raise, given his stats?I think it's an easy Bet. Call or 3-bet is the issue, imo. Link to post Share on other sites
Briguy 0 Posted November 3, 2005 Share Posted November 3, 2005 6% PFR. It's possible that he doesn't raise JJ or TT preflop. Especially if he acts all squirrelly in SB vs. BB steal situations.There's so much contradictory information in this hand. Bet/call is the best line, IMO, but check/call isn't that far behind. I puke either way: if the river bet gets raised and YHING, or if it checks through and YHIG. I'm happy if c/c induces a stupid bluff from some strange J or a reasonable bet from K-rag. I'm ecstatic if villian raises the river with K-rag or JT. Admittedly, that's too much emotion for one solitary river decision. Maybe I should drink when I play. Link to post Share on other sites
CoranMoran 0 Posted November 3, 2005 Share Posted November 3, 2005 It seems that he would have 3bet preflop with JJ, TT or AKSo what hands are we afraid of in this position?33, K3, KT, KJ, Q9The chances are strong that we are ahead here.Passively checking out of fear simply loses too much value.Bet your trips.And if he raises, consider 3 betting.The river bet is a must.The 3-bet is dependant on how LAG your opponent is.The higher the limit (thus the better your opponents are supposedly), the more likely you should bet-call.--cnm Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted November 3, 2005 Author Share Posted November 3, 2005 Bet your trips.Yeah. This is the best line.And if he raises, seriously consider 3 betting.3-betting would be terrible. Put villian on a range of hands that he raises the river with. How often am I ahead.Bet/call is the best line.Thanks. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted November 3, 2005 Share Posted November 3, 2005 Villain is loose and can be aggressive at times. Â His stats over 45 hands are 56/6.3/1.06.Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cxPreflop: Hero is SB with Q:heart:, K:heart:. Â Â 4 folds, BB calls.Flop: (4 SB) 3:spade:, J:club:, T:diamond: (2 players)Hero bets, BB calls.Turn: (3 BB) K:diamond: (2 players)Hero bets, Hero calls.River: (11 BB) K:spade: (2 players)What's my play?{ insert useless responses; but I (Screech) already know the right answer.}3-betting would be terrible. Â Put villian on a range of hands that he raises the river with. Â How often am I ahead.Bet/call is the best line.Thanks. I got this one fellasFYT. glad I got it right, teach. (please don't deduct too much for me considering Bet-Raise as the 2nd best line) Link to post Share on other sites
psujohn 0 Posted November 3, 2005 Share Posted November 3, 2005 If we believe his post flop AF is just barely over 1 then I probably check/call. He's not exactly passive but a 1 AF isn't capping the turn with nothing. I think that increases the chances that he has KT, KJ or Q9 enough to make me warry.Of course I'm not sure how much a believe a read on his AF after just 45 hands. Bet/call is probably the best. Check/Call is probably what I actually do. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted November 3, 2005 Share Posted November 3, 2005 If we believe his post flop AF is just barely over 1 then I probably check/call. He's not exactly passive but a 1 AF isn't capping the turn with nothing.1. He is loose PF, thus a 1 post flop is pretty Aggressive. Think about it. how many hands must he jsut be chasing air when he callsc preflop so often. Calling lowers your PFA..so he bets/raises plenty with marginal/great hands2. Very little Data. Credibility of PT stats low3. You check sets into a field of 4. So you can't comment! Link to post Share on other sites
MrNiceGuy 0 Posted November 3, 2005 Share Posted November 3, 2005 I dunno - I think c/c is somewhat better than b/c.c/c is better against these likely hands (24):Q9-1233-3K3-3KJ-3KT-3Less likely hands: AK, AQ, JJ, TT (22), bluffsb/c is better against these likely hands (31):JT-9J3-9T3-9K9-4Less likely hands: Kx (24)I lean towards c/c, because I think the first set of hands is more likely than the second set, given that he capped the turn. Plus there's some chance that he folds J3 or T3 to a bet (if he even defends with those hands in the first place).Really, if there's ever a spot to b/f a non-bluff on the river in an 11 BB pot, this might be it (but I would c/c). Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted November 3, 2005 Author Share Posted November 3, 2005 { insert useless responses; but I (Screech) already know the right answer.} I never actually knew what was best at the time. I planned to check/call on the river, and it went check-check.After the hand, I realized that bet/call was probably better (maybe even bet/fold??), because villian will call with more hands then he will bet.I posted the hand because I wasn't entirely sure, and wanted some feedback. Hence the:Thanks. :-) Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted November 3, 2005 Author Share Posted November 3, 2005 I dunno - I think c/c is somewhat better than b/c.c/c is better against these likely hands (24):Q9-1233-3K3-3KJ-3KT-3Less likely hands: AK, AQ, JJ, TT (22), bluffsb/c is better against these likely hands (31):JT-9J3-9T3-9K9-4Less likely hands: Kx (24)I lean towards c/c, because I think the first set of hands is more likely than the second set, given that he capped the turn. Plus there's some chance that he folds J3 or T3 to a bet (if he even defends with those hands in the first place).Really, if there's ever a spot to b/f a non-bluff on the river in an 11 BB pot, this might be it (but I would c/c).This is some good reasoning, especially the part about him more likely to have the hands that beat me due to the cap.However, he will always bet the hands that beat me, and is much less likely to bet the hands I beat. He will also never bluff here. So I end up losing value on a check/call.Out of the hands that I know beat, the only ones he's likely to raise with is K9 or Kx (both of which are fairly unlikely holdings given his turn action). He will also rarely bluff raise in this spot because of the strength I've shown.The more I think about it, the more I like bet/fold here. Link to post Share on other sites
brando 0 Posted November 3, 2005 Share Posted November 3, 2005 I dunno - I think c/c is somewhat better than b/c.c/c is better against these likely hands (24):Q9-1233-3K3-3KJ-3KT-3Less likely hands: AK, AQ, JJ, TT (22), bluffsb/c is better against these likely hands (31):JT-9J3-9T3-9K9-4Less likely hands: Kx (24)I lean towards c/c, because I think the first set of hands is more likely than the second set, given that he capped the turn. Plus there's some chance that he folds J3 or T3 to a bet (if he even defends with those hands in the first place).Really, if there's ever a spot to b/f a non-bluff on the river in an 11 BB pot, this might be it (but I would c/c).This is some good reasoning, especially the part about him more likely to have the hands that beat me due to the cap.However, he will always bet the hands that beat me, and is much less likely to bet the hands I beat. He will also never bluff here. So I end up losing value on a check/call.Out of the hands that I know beat, the only ones he's likely to raise with is K9 or Kx (both of which are fairly unlikely holdings given his turn action). He will also rarely bluff raise in this spot because of the strength I've shown.The more I think about it, the more I like bet/fold here.We're heads up with trips (tons of showdown value) in an 11BB pot, bet/folding seems crazy IMO. Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted November 3, 2005 Author Share Posted November 3, 2005 We're heads up with trips (tons of showdown value) in an 11BB pot, bet/folding seems crazy IMO.Maybe.This guy capped the turn. The only hand I can conceivably be ahead of is K9, and I doubt he even caps the turn with that.Then, after he caps and I lead (an enormous show of strength), what do you think he could possibly raise with??I know I have to only be good 6.7% of the time to bet/call, but I really don't think that would be the case against this opponent. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted November 3, 2005 Share Posted November 3, 2005 sounds like you should c/c then? According to that woosey logicbut, no, like I said Bet/Call. Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted November 3, 2005 Author Share Posted November 3, 2005 sounds like you should c/c then? According to that woosey logicbut, no, like I said Bet/Call.woosey logic?We miss out on a lot of value if we check this river.I'm usually all for bet/calling in large pots on the river, but here I don't see how we can possibly be good 6.7% of the time when we are raised. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted November 3, 2005 Share Posted November 3, 2005 So are you now saying C/C ? Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted November 3, 2005 Author Share Posted November 3, 2005 So are you now saying C/C ?Nope.We miss out on a lot of value if we check this river.I think betting is best, regardless of whether we bet/call or bet/fold. I think bet/folding is best. Link to post Share on other sites
psujohn 0 Posted November 3, 2005 Share Posted November 3, 2005 Actually the more I think about it the more I think check/call is one of the worst options.b/f > b/c > c/c > c/f ? 3. You check sets into a field of 4. So you can't comment! Hey, do as I say and not as I do. Link to post Share on other sites
MrNiceGuy 0 Posted November 3, 2005 Share Posted November 3, 2005 My problem with bet/folding is that to do so, you have to be nearly certain that villain doesn't have K9 or Kx (since he would raise this river, if he would cap the turn). I think this is reasonable; capping the turn would be a major spew on his part if that's what he has. But if he can't have those hands, then you're certainly behind more than 50% of the time here, which makes check/calling appropriate (since I can't imagine he folds a better hand to a bet).Bet/calling might still be best, even if you're behind more than half the time, if there are hands that beat you that he just calls with, but would bet if checked to (such that betting doesn't cost you anything against those hands). But I can't see him doing so here, if he capped the turn and then improved on the river. Maybe if he has 33, TT, or JJ, he'll just call, but I'm not sure of that.I think c/c, b/f, and b/c are all very close, but I'm sticking with c/c for the moment. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted November 3, 2005 Share Posted November 3, 2005 dbl post Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted November 3, 2005 Author Share Posted November 3, 2005 But if he can't have those hands, then you're certainly behind more than 50% of the time here, which makes check/calling appropriate (since I can't imagine he folds a better hand to a bet).You're misapplying the concept. When we are OOP on the river, we don't have to be better than 50% to bet. This only applies in last position. If we check, we allow him to check his weaker hands behind, (his two pair hands that just got counterfeited), while he can still bet the hands that beat us. We still have to call and put in 1BB. However, if we bet he will now call with those weak hands that he wouldn't bet. Even though we are a slight underdog when we bet, we still must do so because villian will call with more hands than he will bet. If he raises, we can be certain we're beat because of the turn action and nature of the board. Link to post Share on other sites
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