your thoughts on my read

[jayboogie 0]

No, your still not correct to call, how many chips are you winning here? Your AJ is going to hold up maybe half the time against those 2 players to win about 700 chips? You could win the same amount by folding and doubling up on another hand waiting for a better spot where your a bigger favorite. Your a favorite in this hand, but not a huge favorite, the blinds weren't a factor, so there's no reasoning to call here. You got extremely lucky to even be ahead, your read is totally irrelevant, because it was just a lucky guess more than anything. Just because these guys push with not much or call with not much doesn't mean that they couldn't have been holding QQ, KK, AA, AK, AQ, which would have you in a very bad situation. Just because you think they might be stealing doesn't give you a reason to call with AJ when you already have 1 caller willing to knock the other guy out. When you call with AJ, the only hands you have dominated are the 1's you listed and your still not a big favorite. If both players hold live cards that are not A or J, you are going to win the hand less thanhalf the time.

[rog 0]

Let me ask you this rog...If the two players who were all in flipped over J10 off and JQ off, and you had AJ, would you have made the call? I hope so for your sake! I'm not saying I knew their cards, but it was very clear to me that I was ahead. (Honestly, if I knew they both had jacks, I would have made the call instantly).Getting your chips in (400 to win 725) when you are more than 50% to win is about as good as you can ask for.

That depends on where we are in the tourney, and how many BB I'll have left if I lose. Probably I make this call though.This is not as good as you can ask for. Heads up you are a big favorite against either hand. The first all-in could be anything. The second all-in knows your big stack is left to play behind him, and knows he's covered if you join the action, so I dont see him calling all-in with crap. If I'm in his seat, I'm either calling with a premium hand, or letting the big-stack challenge the short-stack all-in. If my position is better, things may be different. If he turns over a high pocket pair, you've probably blown a nice chip lead.Would you make this call if you were covered?Rog

[rusmac31 0]

"I called, was correct, and got outdrawn. End of story."Not to inflame, but JFarrell, if this is what you believe why even post the question?You are convinced that you made the right play...why ask for everyone else's opinion if you're 100% convinced you made the right play?Given all the conditions of the call (you had 25x bb, 2 all-ins before you, AJos) almost any professional would tell you that the "correct" play is to fold. Your entire argument is based on you making the correct "read". I just can't imagine that in a on-line $10 SNG, playing with players you've probably never played with before and with blinds @15-30 (which means you've played less than 20 hands) that your "reading" skills are superior enough to determine that you are significantly ahead before they show their cards.Looking at it another way, I'm sure if you were to ask the same question without posting what the other 2 had, 95% of the forum would say fold for the many reasons stated above.Just my .02

[Naismith 0]

A concept that I've recently started to grasp (although I heard Raymer disagree with it):If you're confident in your abilities, you fold while slightly ahead (like in this situation) because you'll eventually have a better go of it.If you're not, you play in this situation taking better than a coin flip shot at getting rid of a couple people and doubling up.In any case, I'm going to have to agree with the majority on this one. You have to fold here. As for cold reading people online this early in a game, which really comes down to general moves people make as opposed to specific reads, my take on his lack of going all in (from 325 to a total of 400, I believe) would've been that he had a strong hand and didn't want to scare away a potential other caller by pushing all in, even though the difference was small. Obviously, I would've been mistaken.Peace,Jay

[jogsxyz 0]

A concept that I've recently started to grasp (although I heard Raymer disagree with it):If you're confident in your abilities, you fold while slightly ahead (like in this situation) because you'll eventually have a better go of it.If you're not, you play in this situation taking better than a coin flip shot at getting rid of a couple people and doubling up.In any case, I'm going to have to agree with the majority on this one. You have to fold here. As for cold reading people online this early in a game, which really comes down to general moves people make as opposed to specific reads, my take on his lack of going all in (from 325 to a total of 400, I believe) would've been that he had a strong hand and didn't want to scare away a potential other caller by pushing all in, even though the difference was small. Obviously, I would've been mistaken.Peace,Jay

JF, sorry but I would have folded also. I was only trying to promote discussion.You are not that great a favorite. On this hand you were lucky to hold a dominate hand over each of your opps and unlucky one drew out on you.Here are some 3-way comparisons against hands inferior to yours in heads-up situations.AJo = 35.1%; KQs= 36.3%, T9s = 28.6%AJo =43.7%; KTo=34%, 95o = 22.2%If you think you're a good player, it's just not worth the risk.With smaller raises, in non all-in situations where you have positional advantage after the draw, you can call with this hand.

[JFarrell20 1]

Would you make this call if you were covered?Rog

Nope, I doubt it. Even though it's same odds and stuff, if I lose, I'm out.

[JFarrell20 1]

Alright, there seems to be a consensus here. I made the wrong play. I'll admit it (I guess 'internet reads' don't mean anything to you all).I'll never trust my reads again. I will play by the book and lay down against two all-ins in front of me unless I have AA.Thank you all for making me a better player.By the way... just to remind everyone... my original post was "Your thoughts on my READ". Not "Your thoughts on my PLAY".My read was obviously correct (in this case). Now that that has been established, the only question is "would you call knowing (thinking) you are ahead?"But anyway, my efforts are futile now. It's over. Thanks for all the advice!

[bigkg 0]

JFarrel20 wrote:"would you call knowing (thinking) you are ahead?"Depends how far i am ahead, if i had 22 and the other guy i knew had AK i might not call even though technically i am ahead. I have a theory, it is probably a retarded theory, but it is a theory. In order to win this pot you have to beat both of them so you will probably need to have each of them individually dominated, which you did. BUT, since the only cards that can help either of them would be a Q or a 10, the question that arises, is do you have Q10 dominated...? Because that is essentially what you need to beat. Just a thought.

[looshle 6]

By the way... just to remind everyone... my original post was "Your thoughts on my READ". Not "Your thoughts on my PLAY". Ohhhhh, I get it now. Your read was awesome. You were ahead of both of them! I have constructed a statue in your honor and bow to it before every game. God bless you, Jfarrel20, God bless you.[/b]

[PukaPlaya 0]

Your "read" was a lucky guess. At this point in the tourney there is no need to risk half your stack with a hand like AJo. Most of the time you are a dog here and have just crippled yourself if/when you lose. Not sure what you are trying to accomphlish here by posting this but I would take the advice of the others if you want to become a better player. The GAP concept is one of the most important aspects in poker theory and even if your lucky read seemingly justified your call, IMHO it was a bad decision. There are times to make this call but this wasn't one of them.

[JFarrell20 1]

BUT, since the only cards that can help either of them would be a Q or a 10, the question that arises, is do you have Q10 dominated...? Because that is essentially what you need to beat. Just a thought.

Very good point. Concise. I like it. A J is a slight favorite over Q 10 being that the ace high wins if neither hand improves (equal chance at that).So, as someone pointed out earlier, I was a 53% favorite I believe. Pretty good odds to put 400 in to win 725, especially if one wants to play for first. (People saying "it was early in the tourney" make no sense to me. It doesnt matter if it's early, mid, or late...) this is a great opportunity to get out ahead. Getting out ahead early definitely makes it easier to get 1st than trying to get ahead late. Especially in a 1-table SNG. I don't care how good your post-flop play is. You have to capitalize on these opportunities.

[JFarrell20 1]

By the way... just to remind everyone... my original post was "Your thoughts on my READ".  Not "Your thoughts on my PLAY". Ohhhhh, I get it now. Your read was awesome. You were ahead of both of them! I have constructed a statue in your honor and bow to it before every game. God bless you, Jfarrel20, God bless you.[/b]

LOL, thanks! I've always wanted a statue of myself so I could ride up next to it on a motorcycle and throw my helmet up at it a la Rocky Balboa in Rocky III circa 1982.PS: Make sure the statue bears my likeness in the groin region. The female statues will appreciate it.

[JFarrell20 1]

There are times to make this call but this wasn't one of them.

Curious.... when would you make this call? Don't back out on me with a vague argument.

[rusmac31 0]

So my question is... do you guys think I should have called that hand with A J off?You don't need someone to tell you made the correct read. You already know you did. If you want a pat on the back, just ask for it and I'm sure you'll get some who will want to stroke your ego.Of course knowing the cards, I think it's an easy call. 50/50 chance to bet 400 and win 725. That's a profitable call long term any way you look at it.However, if you posted the question without revealing what your opponents had, 95% of the forum, 99% of professionals, my 5 year old daughter, etc... would tell you that's an easy lay down.AJos is not a strong hand to call 2 all-ins (unless of course you are huge chip leader and the all-ins are short stacks)...not sure how anyone could debate that. :-)

[jogsxyz 0]

By the way... just to remind everyone... my original post was "Your thoughts on my READ".

I agree with part of your 'read'. You were likely to hold the best hand. But you were playing for over half your chips. Against two random hands you would not be 50+% against both. This didn't warrant the risk.If you were playing for clearly less than 20% of your chips, call. Always remember that the goal of a SnG is to finish in-the-money. In a cash game, the goal is to have positive expectation for the play. Calling here increases your chances of gaining chips, but decreases your chances of finishing in-the-money.

[JFarrell20 1]

AJos is not a strong hand to call 2 all-ins (unless of course you are huge chip leader and the all-ins are short stacks)...not sure how anyone could debate that. :-)

I don't get why people say it's ok to call here with a huge chip lead???If I have a huge chip lead here, I'm folding.Since I didn't, and it was early, and I had a helluva shot at doubling up with little risk, I'm calling.

[Spidurman 0]

If you have a huge chip lead, you can gamble more (AJ is a gambling hand on a call) and try to knock one or two out with a big blow without jeapordizing your stack. Yeah you made a great read, but they could easily have had AQ there (or the crap they did have). Personally I'd be trying to take flops and make money there with the full arsenal of plays - not gambling to build a big stack early. Grind out the early levels and then crush em

[PukaPlaya 0]

I don't get why people say it's ok to call here with a huge chip lead???If I have a huge chip lead here, I'm folding.Since I didn't, and it was early, and I had a helluva shot at doubling up with little risk, I'm calling.

Okay.You asked what situations I call in. Being the chip leader and the two all ins being small stacks is one of those situations ironically. Also of course if I am less than 3-4X BB as well. You make the comment that you make this call if you are "playing for first". At this point in the tourney you are trying to accumulate chips but not at the risk of your own survival. Of course if you wake up to a high PP then whatever but AJo??? I always play for first, however who wins is usually determined after the bubble except in strange tourneys where someone gets tripled up on the 1st hand and then continues to get lucky or whatever. Even then I often see that player bust out on the bubble or lose to a more expereienced player heads up.Not sure how long you have been playing this game but from your posts and limits you play at I assume it is not very long.

[dms26 3]

I'm putting on my tin foil hat for protection, this thread is getting dangerous. But I can't see how you can make a "read" against someone you've never played before during the 2nd level of a sit n go. Bad players do get good cards too, AJ may look pretty but most of the time its not going to be good against 2 all ins. I'd have to say your read was more of an educated guess based on only a few hands. You weren't short stacked so why put half your chips in, you only have a 60% edge at best against any hand except Jx. If you like gambles go for it, otherwise outplay these weak players on the flop, its still early.

[JFarrell20 1]

I don't get why people say it's ok to call here with a huge chip lead???If I have a huge chip lead here, I'm folding.Since I didn't, and it was early, and I had a helluva shot at doubling up with little risk, I'm calling.

Okay.You asked what situations I call in. Being the chip leader and the two all ins being small stacks is one of those situations ironically. Also of course if I am less than 3-4X BB as well. You make the comment that you make this call if you are "playing for first". At this point in the tourney you are trying to accumulate chips but not at the risk of your own survival. Of course if you wake up to a high PP then whatever but AJo??? I always play for first, however who wins is usually determined after the bubble except in strange tourneys where someone gets tripled up on the 1st hand and then continues to get lucky or whatever. Even then I often see that player bust out on the bubble or lose to a more expereienced player heads up.Not sure how long you have been playing this game but from your posts and limits you play at I assume it is not very long.

If you get a chipstack early, your chance of finishing is exponentially higher than if you don't. Take any pro for example, they count on getting off to a big lead early, then using their ammunition as a pro-active way to steal chips. I'm a newbie, I've only been playing for about 16 months or so. (After seeing all those 2003 WSOP re-runs on ESPN). Before then, I didn't even know what a full-house was, and I'm not ashamed to admit it. The card-cam revolutionized the way I think about poker. Before the card-cam, I had no idea how to play besides "bet when you have it", and "fold if you don't". lol. I think a lot of people on here would agree that seeing the players' cards really taught them a lot.

[jogsxyz 0]

I'm putting on my tin foil hat for protection, this thread is getting dangerous. But I can't see how you can make a "read" against someone you've never played before during the 2nd level of a sit n go. Bad players do get good cards too, AJ may look pretty but most of the time its not going to be good against 2 all ins. I'd have to say your read was more of an educated guess based on only a few hands. You weren't short stacked so why put half your chips in, you only have a 60% edge at best against any hand except Jx. If you like gambles go for it, otherwise outplay these weak players on the flop, its still early.

You're safe, as long as you don't disagree with Smash.Let's say I was away from the computer during level 1. The assumption is that any player who loses half his chips during level 1 is a weak player. Of course everyone knows this is not always true.AJo should be the favorite against the set of hands a weak player would play. Still pigeons do wake up with pocket aces.The disagreement between JF and me is how big a favorite are we in this situation. In the actual deal JF was 55% favorite against the two opps. But against random hands his opps are willing to play, JF is more likely to be only 40-45% favorite. In my opinion not a great enough favorite to risk over half his stack. This is just opinion. The game theory statistcs is far too complex any of us to solve.

[JFarrell20 1]

OK, so say I'm only 40% to win.I'm putting 400 in to win 720. If I make this call:Every 10 hands I will lose 6 times (losing 2400 total)Every 10 hands I will win 4 times (winning 2880 total)In the long run, even if I'm only a 40% favorite to win, I will win money with this call. (Net gain of 48 per hand)And I think a clarification needs to be made here...If I called and lost I was down to like 350 or so, with the BB at 30. This is no problem for me. I have no reservations about having to grind out from 350 this early. Not-a-one.Since I was actually 55% to win that would meanEvery 10 hands I will lose 4.5 times (losing 1800 total)Every 10 hands I will win 5.5 times (winning 3960 total)Net gain after 10 hands is +2160, so I will win 216 every time I play this hand. Winning a 216 pot when the blinds are at 15/30 is still a pretty good pot.

[Spidurman 0]

If I called and lost I was down to like 350 or so, with the BB at 30. This is no problem for me. I have no reservations about having to grind out from 350 this early. Not-a-one.

If you're game for that and understand its about 50% of the time to happen BEST CASE - and more often than not it will be higher - go for it :)12x the big blind isn't a good spot, but its survivable.

[dms26 3]

Sometimes a +EV play may not be the correct one in a tourney or sit n go. Your argument about making 216 per hand is fine for a cash game, but in sit n go's you can't rebuy.

[JFarrell20 1]

Sometimes a +EV play may not be the correct one in a tourney or sit n go. Your argument about making 216 per hand is fine for a cash game, but in sit n go's you can't rebuy.

Correct, but as I said earlier, I could not have went out on this hand, and I had no reservations about having to grind back from 300+. 10th and 4th are no different to me.