alf13 0 Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 Here is the bet....a friend of mine gets to pick 20 players in the Main Event......I get Phil Ivey....winner of the bet is who finishes higher (any of the 20 vs. Ivey)...So in other words...for me to win...Ivey has to beat 20 pros.....He tossed the bet out there and asked what I wanted as far as odds....I told him I needed to think about it and get back to him....What should I ask for? What would be fair?---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Another bet that was offered.....Winner of the Main Event...over/under 30 years old......I lose on tie.I got Over.....my friend wants under and wants me to give him 9 to 5......I said he is nuts....and passed...what do you guys think? Link to post Share on other sites
fubar1 0 Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 I think that you should get to 20 to 1 on the Ivey bet Link to post Share on other sites
cursive34 0 Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 i wouldnt take ivey over 20 pros. just because he migth see a huge cash game start up and want to get out. Link to post Share on other sites
bourbenz 0 Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 i wouldnt take that bet without ridiculous odds, don't get me wrong but Phil is a cash game specialst, I would take 20 tourney pros over him any day. He may break every single one of them at a cash table but this aint a cash game. Link to post Share on other sites
sublime 0 Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 Sounds like an oppritunity to haggle to me. Start at 40/50 to 1 and go from there. I think anything over 20 is good.~sublime Link to post Share on other sites
Pupsta 0 Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 agreed, 20:1 or better is good odds, and i'd consider taking the 9 to 5 on the other bet, and throw out a technicality if he's 30: over 30 means 30 years and 1 day, so you win Link to post Share on other sites
Mr Monkey 0 Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 i wouldnt take anything less then 50-1 Link to post Share on other sites
alf13 0 Posted June 23, 2005 Author Share Posted June 23, 2005 agreed, 20:1 or better is good odds, and i'd consider taking the 9 to 5 on the other bet, and throw out a technicality if he's 30: over 30 means 30 years and 1 day, so you win I tried that and he said no way....if he is in his 30th year on earth...I lose....ages of players have to be under 30 at start of tourney....so the only way I win if a guy is 30 is if has his 30th birthday during the tournament. Link to post Share on other sites
nutonflop 0 Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 Sounds like an oppritunity to haggle to me. Start at 40/50 to 1 and go from there. I think anything over 20 is good.~sublimeyou deserve at least 40 or 50 to one and as a friendly bet i don;t think your frined would take it, and 20 to 1 is still about even $. i would have him pick 5 and go 10 to 1. Link to post Share on other sites
angryman 0 Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 I think that you should get to 20 to 1 on the Ivey betI would want waaaaay better than 20 to 1. I think you could probably name 20 players who are even money with Ivey, so he is a coin flip to finish ahead of each one of them. When was the last time you won 20 50/50 bets in a row. Chance of finishing ahead of Harrington 50%Chance of finishing ahead of Harrington and Helmuth 25%Chance of finishing ahead of Harrington, Helmuth and Negreanu 12.5%Chance of finishing ahead of Harrington, Helmuth, Negreanu, Lederer, 6.25%etc etc etcI'd want something closer to 400 to 1Criticize my player picks, criticize my math, but don't take 20 to 1 on that bet. Link to post Share on other sites
Dr_Shakes 0 Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 I am wondering how you are going to verify the outcome? Do they even have finishing places for everybody who goes out? Im thinking particularly if Ivey and all of your friends picks go out early especially since Day one will be split. Link to post Share on other sites
CodyHartman 0 Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 I think that you should get to 20 to 1 on the Ivey betI would want waaaaay better than 20 to 1. I think you could probably name 20 players who are even money with Ivey, so he is a coin flip to finish ahead of each one of them. When was the last time you won 20 50/50 bets in a row. Chance of finishing ahead of Harrington 50%Chance of finishing ahead of Harrington and Helmuth 25%Chance of finishing ahead of Harrington, Helmuth and Negreanu 12.5%Chance of finishing ahead of Harrington, Helmuth, Negreanu, Lederer, 6.25%etc etc etcI'd want something closer to 400 to 1Criticize my player picks, criticize my math, but don't take 20 to 1 on that bet.400 to 1 may be to steep for someone to take tho. The key to getting a prop bet to work is that each side has to feel it has an advantage. At 400:1 his pal wont accept. The simple answer is 20:1 BUT when someone gets 20 pros vs 1 it is unlikely that the 1 guy will prevail IMHO.Alf ask fer 40:1 OR a set amount by each of you, sorta the same idea tho. Where is Smash when u need advice on a prop bet. He has one going right now w/ someone on a similar idea. You may want to try and find that thread.GL to ya Link to post Share on other sites
alf13 0 Posted June 23, 2005 Author Share Posted June 23, 2005 I am wondering how you are going to verify the outcome? Do they even have finishing places for everybody who goes out? Im thinking particularly if Ivey and all of your friends picks go out early especially since Day one will be split.Card Player I am sure will update as notable pros get eliminated. Link to post Share on other sites
junkman 0 Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 agreed, 20:1 or better is good odds, and i'd consider taking the 9 to 5 on the other bet, and throw out a technicality if he's 30: over 30 means 30 years and 1 day, so you win I tried that and he said no way....if he is in his 30th year on earth...I lose....ages of players have to be under 30 at start of tourney....so the only way I win if a guy is 30 is if has his 30th birthday during the tournament.A 29 year old would actually be "in his 30th year on earth"... so, if you take the over you'd get anyone 30 years old. Might want to hold onto that information in case it comes down to it. Link to post Share on other sites
angryman 0 Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 I'd want something closer to 400 to 1400 to 1 may be to steep for someone to take tho. The key to getting a prop bet to work is that each side has to feel it has an advantage. At 400:1 his pal wont accept. The simple answer is 20:1 BUT when someone gets 20 pros vs 1 it is unlikely that the 1 guy will prevail IMHO.Alf ask fer 40:1 OR a set amount by each of you, sorta the same idea tho. Ya, I guess asking for 400:1 is an unlikely bet. Maybe stick to 20:1 but haggle on the number of picks he gets.For the over-under 30yrs, I'd be tempted to accept the 9 to 5. On sheer volume, I think the over 30s have a big edge. On skill, the answer depends largely on the age of the person you're asking.2 great topics by the way alf Link to post Share on other sites
Governator 54 Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 Ivey's performance has been sub-par this month... I certainly would avoid that bet at all costs. Link to post Share on other sites
dmoneypoker 0 Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 try to thin the field to like at least 15, if not 10.20 and you will almost surely lose.how about if ivey outlasts half of his team, it's a push?also you should ban him from picking dan harrington (obviously) and marcel luske who has finished 10th and 14th the last two years. Link to post Share on other sites
kangorkodos 0 Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 I think that you should get to 20 to 1 on the Ivey betI would want waaaaay better than 20 to 1. I think you could probably name 20 players who are even money with Ivey, so he is a coin flip to finish ahead of each one of them. When was the last time you won 20 50/50 bets in a row. Chance of finishing ahead of Harrington 50%Chance of finishing ahead of Harrington and Helmuth 25%Chance of finishing ahead of Harrington, Helmuth and Negreanu 12.5%Chance of finishing ahead of Harrington, Helmuth, Negreanu, Lederer, 6.25%etc etc etcI'd want something closer to 400 to 1Criticize my player picks, criticize my math, but don't take 20 to 1 on that bet.I'm signing up for this forum just to reply to some of the terrible math in the responses to this post, of which quoted poster is typical.Look, imagine taking 21 poker players who are all exactly equal in skill. Each one of the therefore has an equal chance (1/21 or 4.76%) of finishing ahead of all the others in the group.So, if you think Ivy has roughly the same skill as each of 20 players selected by your opponent, then 20:1 odds are "fair", that is they do not give either bettor an edge. The math in the quoted post would work if Ivy had to defeat each of the 20 in a HU match. Obviously the WSOP ME doesn't work that way.Back to the prop bet in question. I think this is probably pretty close actually being the case - I don't think that anyone is a significant favorite to finish above Ivy individually. Also, his agressive tournament style is condusive to either busting early or accumulating a big stack, which is an advantage in a last longer bet against a field of players. I would consider taking at 20-1, definitely take at 25-1, and it's a no-brainer at 30-1 and above. Link to post Share on other sites
Mr Monkey 0 Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 I think that you should get to 20 to 1 on the Ivey betI would want waaaaay better than 20 to 1. I think you could probably name 20 players who are even money with Ivey, so he is a coin flip to finish ahead of each one of them. When was the last time you won 20 50/50 bets in a row. Chance of finishing ahead of Harrington 50%Chance of finishing ahead of Harrington and Helmuth 25%Chance of finishing ahead of Harrington, Helmuth and Negreanu 12.5%Chance of finishing ahead of Harrington, Helmuth, Negreanu, Lederer, 6.25%etc etc etcI'd want something closer to 400 to 1Criticize my player picks, criticize my math, but don't take 20 to 1 on that bet.I'm signing up for this forum just to reply to some of the terrible math in the responses to this post, of which quoted poster is typical.Look, imagine taking 21 poker players who are all exactly equal in skill. Each one of the therefore has an equal chance (1/21 or 4.76%) of finishing ahead of all the others in the group.So, if you think Ivy has roughly the same skill as each of 20 players selected by your opponent, then 20:1 odds are "fair", that is they do not give either bettor an edge. The math in the quoted post would work if Ivy had to defeat each of the 20 in a HU match. Obviously the WSOP ME doesn't work that way.Back to the prop bet in question. I think this is probably pretty close actually being the case - I don't think that anyone is a significant favorite to finish above Ivy individually. Also, his agressive tournament style is condusive to either busting early or accumulating a big stack, which is an advantage in a last longer bet against a field of players. I would consider taking at 20-1, definitely take at 25-1, and it's a no-brainer at 30-1 and above.IMO to take anything less then 50-1 is stupid Link to post Share on other sites
angryman 0 Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 Look, imagine taking 21 poker players who are all exactly equal in skill. Each one of the therefore has an equal chance (1/21 or 4.76%) of finishing ahead of all the others in the group.LOL. This is exactly why I invite people to criticize my math. Thank you.Your friendly neighbourhood mental deficient, Angryman. Link to post Share on other sites
nutonflop 0 Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 btw, alf i'll take that bet w/ 3 players and pay 3 to 1. if youre down.barry greensteinthe grinder Michael Gracz Link to post Share on other sites
alf13 0 Posted June 23, 2005 Author Share Posted June 23, 2005 btw, alf i'll take that bet w/ 3 players and pay 3 to 1. if your down.Against Ivey?Give me the three names and I will tell you if we are on. Link to post Share on other sites
alf13 0 Posted June 23, 2005 Author Share Posted June 23, 2005 btw, alf i'll take that bet w/ 3 players and pay 3 to 1. if youre down.barry greensteinthe grinder Michael GraczI'll take that.....Two days before the Main Event kicks off...lets make arrangements to have the forum admin hold the money....Wanna do $100? Link to post Share on other sites
nutonflop 0 Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 btw, alf i'll take that bet w/ 3 players and pay 3 to 1. if your down.Against Ivey?Give me the three names and I will tell you if we are on.Barry GreensteinMichael GraczThe Grinder (thinking about the other full tilters instead)i may switch the grinder for someone else. let you know soon Link to post Share on other sites
nutonflop 0 Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 btw, alf i'll take that bet w/ 3 players and pay 3 to 1. if youre down.barry greensteinthe grinder Michael GraczI'll take that.....Two days before the Main Event kicks off...lets make arrangements to have the forum admin hold the money....Wanna do $100?300 is a bit much to pay out, i'll think about it and let you know Link to post Share on other sites
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