thoughts on variance

[Landon_McFly 0]

I was thinking about this earlier today...I know how variance can occur in limit holdem to such an extent it can censored you off. People sucking out on the river during your entire session. There isn't anything you can do to detter it besides to just accept it as a part of the game and know that things will go your way.Well, look at the reason why a lot of people suck out on you. Although they're making -ev calls, it's just one or two more bets to them. Not to mention all those days you might flop top two pair, only to get called to the river by someone's 10 high flush. It seems that the consensus around here is that you need to have a 300XBB bankroll before you step foot in a limit game, and more than this before you play no-limit. What confuses me about this is that it seems less variance occurs in no-limit due to the fact that you can choose the pot-odds you give your opponent(s)Someone is really going to have a tough time deciding if they wanna call 50 more bucks just to see another diamond, or to complete their straight, compared to someone in a limit game who will coldcall because they are "feeling lucky".Yet, everyone talks about all the swings that occur in NL, but shouldn't more swings occur in limit?I'd love to hear someone else's thoughts on this.MAYBE SOMEONE CAN OPEN MY EYES TO SOMETHING I OVERLOOKED. :shock:

[dmoneypoker 0]

you can only lose so much in a hand of limit poker. the swings are greater in no limit because often you will run into a player willing to gamble without the odds to justify it. let's face it, you can't lay down the nut flush draw or an open ended draw every time just because you're only getting even money. if you do you're playing a little too tight. in tournaments you may have to committ all your chips if you flop such a hand. poker is still a form of gambling no matter how technically sound you play it and the times someone burns you in NL are generally going to be more expensive than the times you get smoked in limit holdem. if someone calls you down with a gutshot and a backdoor flush in limit it can only cost you so much. if someone calls the flop vs you with a hand like that in no limit holdem either looking to gamble or bluff you on the turn, well, if they hit their hand you are gunna get hurt because it's hard to put someone on a hand like that when they call the flop.so in conclusion, "variance" occurs less in no limit if you lay a big bet on the flop but the times it does happen is going to be a lot more expensive leading to the monster swings, making it seem like it happens more than it does in limit. also you can play awesome and go broke in one hand of no limit. what happens if you flop a set of kings and someone flops a set of aces or calls your all in with AA and spikes an ace on the river? in limit if you outplay your opponents you are going to have a winning session, in no limit your whole stack can get decimated on one mistake or one instance of bad, bad luck.

[Suited_Up 2]

When you have AK in NL.Flop comes AK6You bet, and I go all-in.Do you fold?Probably not, but I have 66.That's a big swing. On one hand.

[pokepoke1967 0]

I tend to agree w/ you...adjusting to a table you can more often do what is needed to at least be heads-up with your premium hands. When you hit a set with your pocket queens you can really pull people along when you bet half the size of the pot etc. When others are really beating you up w/ junk things can really turn around for you quick and big when the luck runs out for them on the next hand or 2.

[allinbluff35 0]

That's a big swing. On one hand.

depending on the turn and river card.

[Suited_Up 2]

That's a big swing. On one hand.

depending on the turn and river card.

Don't be a smartass!! lolOh wait.... look who I'm talkin to, lol

[dmoneypoker 0]

When you have AK in NL.Flop comes AK6You bet, and I go all-in.Do you fold?Probably not, but I have 66.That's a big swing. On one hand.

Who are you, Eddie Towne? haha.That's a succinct way of saying what I just typed up. In 1/2 Limit you are gunna lose what, $16-20? In 1/2 no limit you will lose hundreds on that hand.

[Suited_Up 2]

When you have AK in NL.Flop comes AK6You bet, and I go all-in.Do you fold?Probably not, but I have 66.That's a big swing. On one hand.

Who are you, Eddie Towne? haha.That's a succinct way of saying what I just typed up. In 1/2 Limit you are gunna lose what, $16-20? In 1/2 no limit you will lose hundreds on that hand.

lol, I was typing before your post was up there

[Landon_McFly 0]

When you have AK in NL.Flop comes AK6You bet, and I go all-in.Do you fold?Probably not, but I have 66.That's a big swing. On one hand.

I totally understand what you're saying, but if I were to play that over and over, I would push everytime, and in the Long Run I'd be well paid. Oh well, I lost a buy-in. If I have a decent bankroll it shouldn't bother me at all.I'll pay off a set of 6's all day if I flop top 2 pair

[Suited_Up 2]

When you have AK in NL.Flop comes AK6You bet, and I go all-in.Do you fold?Probably not, but I have 66.That's a big swing. On one hand.

I totally understand what you're saying, but if I were to play that over and over, I would push everytime, and in the Long Run I'd be well paid. Oh well, I lost a buy-in. If I have a decent bankroll it shouldn't bother me at all.I'll pay off a set of 6's all day if I flop top 2 pair

Yeah, but you asked where the swings are in NL... and they come in hands like that. Plus, this hand will affect you emotionally much more than it would in a limit game. Then you might start microtilting and playing more junk and keep losing that way. I'm not advocating one game over the other. There's money to be made in both, but limit is a harder technical game to do well in, but NL is harder emotionally.

[john kane 0]

good NL players experience less variance than limit.far too many players cant fold big hands in NL that they have huge swings.if your making big calls on the river and your behind, its your decisions which are bad, not 'oh look, my top pair top kicker got beat his set, thats so unlucky'. whereas any decent NL player would know the reason why he's betting big is he's either on a big bluff or on a big hand. and by following betting patterns you can usuallly rule out if the player is willing to make big bets to steal.

[allinbluff35 0]

good NL players experience less variance than limit.far too many players cant fold big hands in NL that they have huge swings.if your making big calls on the river and your behind, its your decisions which are bad, not 'oh look, my top pair top kicker got beat his set, thats so unlucky'. whereas any decent NL player would know the reason why he's betting big is he's either on a big bluff or on a big hand. and by following betting patterns you can usuallly rule out if the player is willing to make big bets to steal.

do you play against robotic monkeys? seriously it's more complex than that.

[21gambit 0]

Yes, you see killer was born to a 3 legged bitch of a mother.