Fcp Hockey Forum 2013 Nfl Pool

[Dubey 1,035]

crappy results all around. Miami bet saved the weekend a bit.

 

 

Current bankroll: $470

 

Bets for week 3:

 

$70 - Philadelphia -3.5 Under 51 - Pays $190

 

$35 - TB +7 Dallas -4 NYG (Pick) - Pays $215

 

$35 - Seattle -19 Denver -15 SF -10 Pays $175

 

$30 - GB -3 Buffalo +3 Chicago -3 Pays

 

Miami -3 (+105) Result: win $52.50

unfortunatly odds worsened from +120 to +105 before I got the bet in on Miami.

 

 

 

 

net result for weekend: -117.50

current bankroll: $352.50

 

 

 

adding Denver -15.5 for $52.50 for the monday nighter. Pays $47.75

 

 

So, I was reviewing my bets this morning, and it seems I accidently didn't include SF -10 on the third parlay, which is awesome, because it means that one is still alive. As a result, I didn't end up making the $52.50 bet on Denver, since I now have an active parlay that pays $92 if Denver covers tonight.

 

 

Current Balance: $352.50

 

Active bet: $35 Seattle -19 Denver -15 pays $92

[Babying 613]

So, I was reviewing my bets this morning, and it seems I accidently didn't include SF -10 on the third parlay, which is awesome, because it means that one is still alive. As a result, I didn't end up making the $52.50 bet on Denver, since I now have an active parlay that pays $92 if Denver covers tonight.

 

 

Current Balance: $352.50

 

Active bet: $35 Seattle -19 Denver -15 pays $92

Good Luck

[Dubey 1,035]

So, I was reviewing my bets this morning, and it seems I accidently didn't include SF -10 on the third parlay, which is awesome, because it means that one is still alive. As a result, I didn't end up making the $52.50 bet on Denver, since I now have an active parlay that pays $92 if Denver covers tonight.

 

 

Current Balance: $352.50

 

Active bet: $35 Seattle -19 Denver -15 pays $92

 

 

ding!

 

 

Thanks to an amazing misclick, I actually finished UP $10 for the weekend. Despite not picking many games right at all. Now I can be agressive for another week. More bets to follow.

 

Current bankroll: $~480

 

 

Also won in the pool, 3-0 now.

[serge 904]

Bad Beat story:

 

I have 3 bets on the Monday Night game.

 

Peyton manning over 325 yards Passing..Easy win.

 

Broncos -16

 

Oakland total points UNDER 16..

 

The game is looking like a breeze to cover..Broncos have the ball..All they have to do is run and get a couple of more first downs..Or at worst punt it..

 

They fumble with like 2 minutes left..Oakland recovers scores a TD..Lose the Under 16 and push the sure win.

[Dubey 1,035]

Yeah that sucks. Denver fumbled twice in the 4th quarter resulting in 2 Oakland TDs. It shouldn't even have been close. I was thinking about how much of a bad beat that was for people who bet it at -16.

[Babying 613]

My local guy had it at 16.5

[iBeaver 409]

I have -16 and the over. Was pussed.

[iBeaver 409]

I'm just going to leave it that way

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

Bad Beat story:

I have 3 bets on the Monday Night game.

Peyton manning over 325 yards Passing..Easy win.

Broncos -16

Oakland total points UNDER 16..

The game is looking like a breeze to cover..Broncos have the ball..All they have to do is run and get a couple of more first downs..Or at worst punt it..

They fumble with like 2 minutes left..Oakland recovers scores a TD..Lose the Under 16 and push the sure win.

 

NFL betting makes me want to throw up.

Its also fun as hell though.

 

GL to you guys.

 

Serge, congrats on whipping my ass this week in Fantasy.

[serge 904]

NFL betting makes me want to throw up.

Its also fun as hell though.

 

GL to you guys.

 

Serge, congrats on whipping my ass this week in Fantasy.

 

Lucky win..

 

I just dont get it..Are the bookies THAT good, that they can get the number right on, or down to the last possession a good percentage of the time?

 

Or is there some sort of fix in? Watching the first half of that game, the Broncos should of won that game by 45 points...Then fumble, fumble..BOOM push..

 

I heard though the books got screwed..They may have lost both sides as the line moved from 14 to 17 at some places.

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

I just dont get it..Are the bookies THAT good, that they can get the number right on, or down to the last possession a good percentage of the time?

Or is there some sort of fix in? Watching the first half of that game, the Broncos should of won that game by 45 points...Then fumble, fumble..BOOM push..

I heard though the books got screwed..They may have lost both sides as the line moved from 14 to 17 at some places.

 

I dont get it either. They are scary good, and that really shouldnt happen in sports this often.

[ajs510 122]

I dont get it either. They are scary good, and that really shouldnt happen in sports this often.

 

That's why I don't bet football anymore...it's just impossible (for me, anyway) to win and call it anything other than blind luck. The books are too good. At least in hockey sometimes you get lines that are absurd.

[Dubey 1,035]

Early picks for week 4:

 

$60 - Houston +3 Pays $50

 

Houston should probably be a favourite in this game. I actually might wait for Bodog to post a ML and just bet that at plus money.

 

$60 - Atlanta even. Pays ~$55

 

Bodog actually hasn't posted this line yet, but its a pick'em on other sites, and I think ATlanta should probably be a 7 point favorite at home against NE right now.

 

$30 - Jags +9, Dallas -2, Denver -11 Pays $175

 

$30 - SF -3 under 41.5 Pays ~$80

 

Bodog still hasn't posted this, but line and payouts should be pretty close. I don't have a good reason for this one, just want some action on the thursday nighter.

 

 

Bankroll after these 4 bets: $300

[iBeaver 409]

I went to go bet the Houston one but then saw they were playing the Seahawks. I don't think their a fav over Seattle.

[Dubey 1,035]

Houston is almost as good of a home team as Seattle is. They were 7-1 last year at home. Seattle is a great team but not nearly as good on the road as they are at home.

 

 

I can't find the numbers now, but Seattle doesn't generally fare well against the spread on the road. It's going to be a close, low scoring game. Forget about what happened against Baltimore last week, that was an anomoly for the texans. Seattle might win, and they might cover like 17-13, but I think it's much more likely that this ends up being a field goal game either way, so the smart money is on the dog at +3.

[Dubey 1,035]

This is one of those sucker lines that seems too good to be true since Seattle has been dominant and Houston is coming off a blowout loss to Baltimore. Smart money is on Houston.

[mrdannyg 274]

Houston is almost as good of a home team as Seattle is. They were 7-1 last year at home. Seattle is a great team but not nearly as good on the road as they are at home.

 

 

I can't find the numbers now, but Seattle doesn't generally fare well against the spread on the road. It's going to be a close, low scoring game. Forget about what happened against Baltimore last week, that was an anomoly for the texans. Seattle might win, and they might cover like 17-13, but I think it's much more likely that this ends up being a field goal game either way, so the smart money is on the dog at +3.

 

You're right about all the reasons that the smart money is on Houston - public perception is heavily in favour of the Seahawks. Then again, Seattle is probably the best team in the NFL...

[Dubey 1,035]

public money is on the seahawks but the bodog line still gives a better price for the Seattle side.

 

Also, Seattle was 3-5 on the road last year.

 

Seattle's run defense is succeptible. Jacksonville was able to run the ball pretty well against them. Their pass defense is the best but Houston excels in running the ball. I don't think Schaub is really going to try to test the secondary too much, they will just ground and pound all day. The only reason this line is -3 for Seattle is because Seattle are a popular bet right now, and the bookmakers know that they will still get action on a bad line.

[serge 904]

I love betting against public money..Its a great strategy

[iBeaver 409]

Yeah I'm going to put my dumb money on Seattle -2.5(bet365)

[Ottawa_Biatch 288]

My NFL plays this week, ones in bold I like the most.

 

Rams +3.5

Bills +3.5

Giants +4.5

Jags +9.5

Texans +3.0

Lions -2.5

Eagles +10.5

Falcons -1.0

Saints -6.5

 

Reason I like the bold teams is basically inflated lines due to public perception like people talked about earlier.

 

Ravens dominated the Texans at home. The Bills lost to the Jets. The truth is, the Bills actually are pretty good, and the Ravens aren't that good. They just probably have the 2nd best home field advantage in the league next to the Seahawks. In the last 2 years, they have the 2nd best winning percentage at home, next to Seattle. On the road, different story. I think this line should actually be around Bills -1, so the fact you're getting more then a field goal is great.

 

Read ESPN, watch PTI, watch NFL today, they are all saying how the Giants are so bad. They can't run the ball, so teams can play cover 2, and have less guys in the box, and Eli is pretty much at their mercy. They talk about how their o-line and d-line can't do jack. This is a motivation game. Most of the sharp money has been on KC all season long (along with Miami), but looks like the public is finally realizing how good these two teams are. Since the public may jump on this ship, it might be time to jump off. I like the Giants on the road, I think they win outright.

 

Everybody says Seattle is the best team in the NFL, maybe, but I don't think it's as clear cut as everyone says. Sure, they dominate at home, but I think their defense has the false impression that they're so great, because at home they don't give up as much points. The reality is, opposing offenses have to use hand signals in Seattle because the decibel level is so loud, and that just ruins the rhythm. On the road, Seattle doesn't have that advantage obviously, and I think this will be seen Sunday. Houston played a poor game on Sunday, but I think they actually might be the best team in the AFC (yes, even better then Denver), and I think they'll beat Seattle. The AFC is loaded this year, while the NFC is pretty poor. I know it's early in the season, and it's stupid to say, but because the AFC is so competitive, I think Houston coaches will be looking at this game as a must win. They'll be motivated.

 

Such a great Sunday night game. Pretty much what Dubey & Serge said above. This is going to be probably one of the most lopsided public vs books games of the day. Everybody will lose money probably on Sunday afternoon (including me), and a majority will be chasing money on Sunday night by backing fan boy Tom Brady. The books probably will be sweating buckets hoping for a Falcons win, I will side with them.

 

I predict my top 4 picks go 0-4.

[Ottawa_Biatch 288]

My top 4 picks FYI if you can't see bold.

 

Bills +3.5

Giants +4.5

Texans +3.0

Falcons -1

[Dubey 1,035]

Good write up.

 

I'm not touching the Giants game though. I had pretty much the same thought process last week when I took them against Carolina.

 

 

I also don't like your eagles pick, as I think Peyton is going to shred the Eagles defense.

[Babying 613]

The 3 biggest public money last week were Packers, Giants and Vikings.

[wsox8 10]

Yeah I'm going to put my dumb money on Seattle -2.5(bet365)

How'd you get $ on bet365?