GrinderMJ 0 Posted June 18, 2009 Share Posted June 18, 2009 I mean, if you're going to try to analyze hands, it generally helps to at least have some clue about how the hand really played out. Link to post Share on other sites
Gallo 1 Posted June 18, 2009 Share Posted June 18, 2009 I mean, if you're going to try to analyze hands, it generally helps to at least have some clue about how the hand really played out.O hi der!! Link to post Share on other sites
pokerfriendly 0 Posted June 18, 2009 Share Posted June 18, 2009 I mean, if you're going to try to analyze hands, it generally helps to at least have some clue about how the hand really played out.agreed gg ...but shut up and you look stupid is no way to talk anyone on this forum ... Link to post Share on other sites
JustLikeNegs 1 Posted June 18, 2009 Share Posted June 18, 2009 lol what Link to post Share on other sites
donk4life 34 Posted June 18, 2009 Share Posted June 18, 2009 agreed gg ...but shut up and you look stupid is no way to talk anyone on this forum ...As opposed to calling some a shitstain? Link to post Share on other sites
JustLikeNegs 1 Posted June 18, 2009 Share Posted June 18, 2009 As opposed to calling some a shitstain?obv acceptable. Link to post Share on other sites
pokerfriendly 0 Posted June 18, 2009 Share Posted June 18, 2009 As opposed to calling some a shitstain?tit for tat i guess.... i hate people picking on the new kids it bugs the shit out of me, regardless who they think they are.. Link to post Share on other sites
GrinderMJ 0 Posted June 18, 2009 Share Posted June 18, 2009 Let's all just get along. 1. It was blind vs. blind, I'm shoving into one person. 2. There was 20k in the pot pre, not 8k.3. The effective stacks were only 13 bbs deep which is not deep stacked by any stretch of imagination. Sure I myself had 19 bbs, but 5 handed it's not like I have all the room in the world to pass up +cev edges.Assuming he calls with 35% of his hands, which is 22+, A2s+, A2o+, K2s+, K5o+, Q8s+, JTs, JTo, QTo, It's still a barely profitable shove. Keep in mind, that most people don't call that wide in real time, so the tighter he gets from that range, the more profitable my shove is. He still has a lot of fold equity on his open shoves, and there are always ICM considerations when you're at a FT, so he's probably calling a bit tighter, maybe 22+, A2s+, A4o+, K6s+, K8o+, JTs, QTo or something similar. If he's only calling with that range, then my shove shows an expectation of +4,113 chips. This is obviously a significant edge at 5k/10k, so my shove is 100% fine. The reason most people don't succeed at tourney poker is because they approach the game very closed mindedly, and look at things like "how can you shove with only 56o?!?!" instead of, "can I make him fold enough hands that 65o becomes a shove here?"Also, I got disconnected with top boat on the turn in a 3 bet pot that got a flop and turn bet, and was for a 2x cl on the field, or I probably would have won. Link to post Share on other sites
Mercury69 3 Posted June 18, 2009 Share Posted June 18, 2009 RAWK! ANY ACE IS GOOD! RAWK! Link to post Share on other sites
Tehtoe 3 Posted June 18, 2009 Share Posted June 18, 2009 Let's all just get along. 1. It was blind vs. blind, I'm shoving into one person. 2. There was 20k in the pot pre, not 8k.3. The effective stacks were only 13 bbs deep which is not deep stacked by any stretch of imagination. Sure I myself had 19 bbs, but 5 handed it's not like I have all the room in the world to pass up +cev edges.Assuming he calls with 35% of his hands, which is 22+, A2s+, A2o+, K2s+, K5o+, Q8s+, JTs, JTo, QTo, It's still a barely profitable shove. Keep in mind, that most people don't call that wide in real time, so the tighter he gets from that range, the more profitable my shove is. He still has a lot of fold equity on his open shoves, and there are always ICM considerations when you're at a FT, so he's probably calling a bit tighter, maybe 22+, A2s+, A4o+, K6s+, K8o+, JTs, QTo or something similar. If he's only calling with that range, then my shove shows an expectation of +4,113 chips. This is obviously a significant edge at 5k/10k, so my shove is 100% fine. The reason most people don't succeed at tourney poker is because they approach the game very closed mindedly, and look at things like "how can you shove with only 56o?!?!" instead of, "can I make him fold enough hands that 65o becomes a shove here?"Also, I got disconnected with top boat on the turn in a 3 bet pot that got a flop and turn bet, and was for a 2x cl on the field, or I probably would have won.Yup.I mean, I made a similar shove to that, why aren't you all going "omg Q5o?!"gg btw gmj, that d/c was gross. Link to post Share on other sites
CaneBrain 95 Posted June 18, 2009 Share Posted June 18, 2009 Let's all just get along. 1. It was blind vs. blind, I'm shoving into one person. 2. There was 20k in the pot pre, not 8k.3. The effective stacks were only 13 bbs deep which is not deep stacked by any stretch of imagination. Sure I myself had 19 bbs, but 5 handed it's not like I have all the room in the world to pass up +cev edges.Assuming he calls with 35% of his hands, which is 22+, A2s+, A2o+, K2s+, K5o+, Q8s+, JTs, JTo, QTo, It's still a barely profitable shove. Keep in mind, that most people don't call that wide in real time, so the tighter he gets from that range, the more profitable my shove is. He still has a lot of fold equity on his open shoves, and there are always ICM considerations when you're at a FT, so he's probably calling a bit tighter, maybe 22+, A2s+, A4o+, K6s+, K8o+, JTs, QTo or something similar. If he's only calling with that range, then my shove shows an expectation of +4,113 chips. This is obviously a significant edge at 5k/10k, so my shove is 100% fine. The reason most people don't succeed at tourney poker is because they approach the game very closed mindedly, and look at things like "how can you shove with only 56o?!?!" instead of, "can I make him fold enough hands that 65o becomes a shove here?"Also, I got disconnected with top boat on the turn in a 3 bet pot that got a flop and turn bet, and was for a 2x cl on the field, or I probably would have won.this is why he is good and lesser mortals are not.gg, nice score to both of you. Link to post Share on other sites
Gallo 1 Posted June 18, 2009 Share Posted June 18, 2009 Um, what were the results of the finishes anyway? Link to post Share on other sites
Gallo 1 Posted June 18, 2009 Share Posted June 18, 2009 Let's all just get along. 1. It was blind vs. blind, I'm shoving into one person. 2. There was 20k in the pot pre, not 8k.3. The effective stacks were only 13 bbs deep which is not deep stacked by any stretch of imagination. Sure I myself had 19 bbs, but 5 handed it's not like I have all the room in the world to pass up +cev edges.Assuming he calls with 35% of his hands, which is 22+, A2s+, A2o+, K2s+, K5o+, Q8s+, JTs, JTo, QTo, It's still a barely profitable shove. Keep in mind, that most people don't call that wide in real time, so the tighter he gets from that range, the more profitable my shove is. He still has a lot of fold equity on his open shoves, and there are always ICM considerations when you're at a FT, so he's probably calling a bit tighter, maybe 22+, A2s+, A4o+, K6s+, K8o+, JTs, QTo or something similar. If he's only calling with that range, then my shove shows an expectation of +4,113 chips. This is obviously a significant edge at 5k/10k, so my shove is 100% fine. The reason most people don't succeed at tourney poker is because they approach the game very closed mindedly, and look at things like "how can you shove with only 56o?!?!" instead of, "can I make him fold enough hands that 65o becomes a shove here?"Also, I got disconnected with top boat on the turn in a 3 bet pot that got a flop and turn bet, and was for a 2x cl on the field, or I probably would have won.i came. Link to post Share on other sites
kobe2odom8 14 Posted June 18, 2009 Share Posted June 18, 2009 i think tehtoe got 7th and gmj 5thwow that makes me throw up hearing about disconnect story, sorry bro Link to post Share on other sites
Ben_G 0 Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 Great finish both off you, that disconnect is sick.... but part of the risk i guess.GG Link to post Share on other sites
GWCGWC 83 Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 Let's all just get along. 1. It was blind vs. blind, I'm shoving into one person. 2. There was 20k in the pot pre, not 8k.3. The effective stacks were only 13 bbs deep which is not deep stacked by any stretch of imagination. Sure I myself had 19 bbs, but 5 handed it's not like I have all the room in the world to pass up +cev edges.Assuming he calls with 35% of his hands, which is 22+, A2s+, A2o+, K2s+, K5o+, Q8s+, JTs, JTo, QTo, It's still a barely profitable shove. Keep in mind, that most people don't call that wide in real time, so the tighter he gets from that range, the more profitable my shove is. He still has a lot of fold equity on his open shoves, and there are always ICM considerations when you're at a FT, so he's probably calling a bit tighter, maybe 22+, A2s+, A4o+, K6s+, K8o+, JTs, QTo or something similar. If he's only calling with that range, then my shove shows an expectation of +4,113 chips. This is obviously a significant edge at 5k/10k, so my shove is 100% fine. The reason most people don't succeed at tourney poker is because they approach the game very closed mindedly, and look at things like "how can you shove with only 56o?!?!" instead of, "can I make him fold enough hands that 65o becomes a shove here?"Also, I got disconnected with top boat on the turn in a 3 bet pot that got a flop and turn bet, and was for a 2x cl on the field, or I probably would have won.obv BUTIf you're gonna be throwing out this knowledge you may as well disclose how your image affects his calling range and more importantly, if he folds or you win the hand, how your image is affected for future hands from the sb, button, co, utg and how it affects the other players raising into your button. Link to post Share on other sites
GrinderMJ 0 Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 obv BUTIf you're gonna be throwing out this knowledge you may as well disclose how your image affects his calling range and more importantly, if he folds or you win the hand, how your image is affected for future hands from the sb, button, co, utg and how it affects the other players raising into your button.Well, we're both regs, so immediately he knows that I'm shoving significantly wider than some random fish would, so naturally his calling range gets wider. However, the calling ranges I gave him were already based on our dynamic and how I assume he plays vs. regs who shove on him. My image is pretty much not impacted by my shove much at all. 3 out of my 4 opponents were tourney regulars who know that I'm a regular as well, so me shoving 13 bbs effective into another reg isn't going to affect anything at all really. I mean, the only benefits I can think of is the random who has the btn when I'm SB, opening tighter from the button for me fear of me shoving over his weak hands. Also, since you get into so many confrontations shorthanded, the dynamic is going to be constantly shifting. If I get a few trash hands in a row when it's folded to my SB and I give him a few walks, his calling range is going to tighten up, and in accordance I'll try to get some lighter shoves in. If it gets shown down and I win, again I expect not a ton of change from my opponents, other than them maybe assuming I was shoving light, to knowing that I was. Link to post Share on other sites
Naslund44 0 Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 grinder ur the shit.seriously. U, R. Link to post Share on other sites
JSpencer 0 Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 Let's all just get along. 1. It was blind vs. blind, I'm shoving into one person. 2. There was 20k in the pot pre, not 8k.3. The effective stacks were only 13 bbs deep which is not deep stacked by any stretch of imagination. Sure I myself had 19 bbs, but 5 handed it's not like I have all the room in the world to pass up +cev edges.Assuming he calls with 35% of his hands, which is 22+, A2s+, A2o+, K2s+, K5o+, Q8s+, JTs, JTo, QTo, It's still a barely profitable shove. Keep in mind, that most people don't call that wide in real time, so the tighter he gets from that range, the more profitable my shove is. He still has a lot of fold equity on his open shoves, and there are always ICM considerations when you're at a FT, so he's probably calling a bit tighter, maybe 22+, A2s+, A4o+, K6s+, K8o+, JTs, QTo or something similar. If he's only calling with that range, then my shove shows an expectation of +4,113 chips. This is obviously a significant edge at 5k/10k, so my shove is 100% fine. The reason most people don't succeed at tourney poker is because they approach the game very closed mindedly, and look at things like "how can you shove with only 56o?!?!" instead of, "can I make him fold enough hands that 65o becomes a shove here?"Also, I got disconnected with top boat on the turn in a 3 bet pot that got a flop and turn bet, and was for a 2x cl on the field, or I probably would have won.I saw the disconnect while watching the table, pretty rough. As far as your decision to push, I understand the logic but still don't really know if I agree with the decision. By no stretch of my imagination do I consider myself to be an expert poker player, but when I see plays that I simply don't understand, I feel the need to question them, if not only to increase my own knowledge on the subject. With 19 BB's left you had 190,000 chips in your stack, with 20k in the pot when it was your turn to act. As you stated before, his calling range is pretty much stuck with pocket pairs, suited aces..ect..ect. I can also agree that at the FT, more than likely he is going to be playing much more tightly. I guess my main beef with the decision is the shove knowing that there is almost a 40% chance that the player will call. And if he were to call, knowing his calling range, you can safely assume that you have an extremely low chance of winning. I might be able to understand it if you were chip leader, but to me it feels like a large raise would have accomplished the exact same thing without risking your stack.Now for my funny analogy.1/3 people in the united states are affected with herpes (we will drop the 35% down to 30%). You are horny as hell. Three women are placed in front of you. You know for a fact one of them has herpes. Is it to your advantage to have sex with one of them? Link to post Share on other sites
FARGOpokerND 22 Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 I saw the disconnect while watching the table, pretty rough. As far as your decision to push, I understand the logic but still don't really know if I agree with the decision. By no stretch of my imagination do I consider myself to be an expert poker player, but when I see plays that I simply don't understand, I feel the need to question them, if not only to increase my own knowledge on the subject. With 19 BB's left you had 190,000 chips in your stack, with 20k in the pot when it was your turn to act. As you stated before, his calling range is pretty much stuck with pocket pairs, suited aces..ect..ect. I can also agree that at the FT, more than likely he is going to be playing much more tightly. I guess my main beef with the decision is the shove knowing that there is almost a 40% chance that the player will call. And if he were to call, knowing his calling range, you can safely assume that you have an extremely low chance of winning. I might be able to understand it if you were chip leader, but to me it feels like a large raise would have accomplished the exact same thing without risking your stack.Now for my funny analogy.1/3 people in the united states are affected with herpes (we will drop the 35% down to 30%). You are horny as hell. Three women are placed in front of you. You know for a fact one of them has herpes. Is it to your advantage to have sex with one of them?Highlighted the part I want to focus on.If you pokerstove the range GMJ gave, this is what comes upText results appended to pokerstove.txt 760,262,976 games 3.695 secs 205,754,526 games/secBoard: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 38.452% 37.95% 00.50% 288498285 3834351.50 { 6s5s }Hand 1: 61.548% 61.04% 00.50% 464095988 3834351.50 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, JTs, A2o+, K5o+, QTo+, JTo }So, vs that range he is still 38% to win.So from a math standpoint, if he folds, his EV is -6kIf he shoves, he has 14k profit 65% of the time (when villain folds) and he wins 134k (.38*.35) and loses 130k (.62*.35)so 14k(.65)+134k(.38*.35)-130k(.62*.35) = -1.28kSo at those ranges its essentially a breakeven play. Obv there are prob some other factors that makes it a +EV shove, but I am talking strictly from a math standpoint for ya JSpencer, just to show you that speaking ONLY on math terms it isn't bad. Link to post Share on other sites
JSpencer 0 Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 Highlighted the part I want to focus on.If you pokerstove the range GMJ gave, this is what comes upText results appended to pokerstove.txt 760,262,976 games 3.695 secs 205,754,526 games/secBoard: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 38.452% 37.95% 00.50% 288498285 3834351.50 { 6s5s }Hand 1: 61.548% 61.04% 00.50% 464095988 3834351.50 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, JTs, A2o+, K5o+, QTo+, JTo }So, vs that range he is still 38% to win.So from a math standpoint, if he folds, his EV is -6kIf he shoves, he has 14k profit 65% of the time (when villain folds) and he wins 134k (.38*.35) and loses 130k (.62*.35)so 14k(.65)+134k(.38*.35)-130k(.62*.35) = -1.28kSo at those ranges its essentially a breakeven play. Obv there are prob some other factors that makes it a +EV shove, but I am talking strictly from a math standpoint for ya JSpencer, just to show you that speaking ONLY on math terms it isn't bad.Never said it was. Probability wise , it makes perfect sense..but only from a mathematical perspective. Though, 65% of the time will result in profit, where as 35% of the time will result in failure, if failure is to occur, you have a 35% chance of successfully escaping it. Simplifying it to 1/3, 1 out of every 3 times will result in a failure, you then have a 1/3 chance to save your money . The profit gained through the villain folding is only 20k whereas the loss is 130k. Which is very similar to someone asking you to put up 130 dollars for the 66% chance of winning 20, if you happen to hit that 33%, you now have a chance to win 130 dollars, but only with 33% certainty. Not too many people would take that offer. And in the long run, it wouldn't pay off. Even if you were to win 5 (which would be unlikely) times in a row, making a profit of 100 dollars, lose once and you lose everything you earned plus another 30 dollars.The reason why I feel as if a large raise seems much more sensible, is because in the same situation, if someone were to offer you the deal to put your 45-50 dollars up for a 66% chance to win 20 dollars. The risk/reward ratio is much better and has a much higher chance of delivering a positive profit. Even if you were to lose, you still would be in good shape to continue. I'm not saying the raise was a bad move, I just don't understand the point of shoving all in. I thought poker was mainly based off of Risk/Reward ratio. To me, the risk in this situation seems much higher than the reward. Link to post Share on other sites
Mercury69 3 Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 grinder ur the shit.seriously. U, R.This. He's a fckn Brainiac. Link to post Share on other sites
vbnautilus 48 Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 Never said it was. Probability wise , it makes perfect sense..but only from a mathematical perspective. Though, 65% of the time will result in profit, where as 35% of the time will result in failure, if failure is to occur, you have a 35% chance of successfully escaping it. Simplifying it to 1/3, 1 out of every 3 times will result in a failure, you then have a 1/3 chance to save your money .Binarizing the outcomes into success and failure is not helpful. The successes and failures come in different sizes. The profit gained through the villain folding is only 20k whereas the loss is 130k.This analysis only includes two of the three possibilities: he folds, he calls and you lose, he calls and you win. You need to include all three possibilities in your consideration. Even though getting called and winning is happening a small percentage of the time, you make enough that one time to match all the losses you take the other times. That's what poker stove is telling you. Link to post Share on other sites
Mercury69 3 Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 AP Wire Service:"Binarize" has now joined normal person language, having successfully migrated from it's former niche as an algorithmic code separating descriptor. Please welcome "binarize"!!! Link to post Share on other sites
pokerfriendly 0 Posted June 19, 2009 Share Posted June 19, 2009 GG guys well played Link to post Share on other sites
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now