overpairs vs underpairs, etc. online

[krup24 0]

I'm no supergenius and I know nothing about probabilities.So underpairs would win against overpairs 23.8% of the time?In 150 hands, unders would win 35.7 times?(150 x .238)This could be wrong.

Correct but were are not talking about random events. If the 4.2:1 probablity would hold the unders should win 35.7 x out of 150. But this is not the argument I making with that clown. Anyways you are a supergenious. First logical bit of math I've seen on this thread except for mine of course.

[dms26 3]

It's not always 4.2:1 either, it depends on suits and straight possibilities.In fact I was on cardplayer and didn't get 23.8% for any lower PP. It was always lower.

[dna4ever 2]

It's not always 4.2:1 either, it depends on suits and straight possibilities.In fact I was on cardplayer and didn't get 23.8% for any lower PP. It was always lower.

i was talking strictly preflop

[goldie79 0]

I am genius.

[NickG 0]

I agree underpairs winning 85/150 times (rather than the expected 35/150) is extraordinarily unlikely. But the probability formulas krup posted don't make any sense. If the constant probability of an underpair winning was 24%, the probability that the underpair would win 85 out of 150 times would be:( 150! / (85! * 65!) ) * (.24^85) * (.76^65)But I don't have a graphic calculator anymore to figure out the final figure....and of course, this is the probability of EXACTLY 85 out of 150, not AT LEAST 85 out of 150.Anyway, it is very very unlikely that underpairs would win this much due to chance. But there's no reason for us to believe your data. Especially when you are including things like AK v. KJ, which has a completely different probability.

[pokerplayer24 0]

Didnt read all the responses but just figured i'd throw in that you most likely dont see all of the times overpairs beat underpairs as underpairs are folded after a bad flop.while most likely someone with a high pair will take it all the way.

[NickG 0]

Didnt read all the responses but just figured i'd throw in that you most likely dont see all of the times overpairs beat underpairs as underpairs are folded after a bad flop.while most likely someone with a high pair will take it all the way.

Didn't he say this was only when someone was all-in before the flop?

[krup24 0]

 Didn't he say this was only when someone was all-in before the flop?

YESand now I am busting out my probability book to show how off your formula is.RANDOM EVENTS

[dms26 3]

It's not always 4.2:1 either, it depends on suits and straight possibilities.In fact I was on cardplayer and didn't get 23.8% for any lower PP. It was always lower.

i was talking strictly preflop

Me too, the %'s I was getting was 18-20% .

[Nutcracker 0]

Man, you all suck at probability and basic math. 4.2:1 is a 23.8% chance? nice one. Try more like 19.23%.As far as figuring out the chance that the underpair would win 85 times out of 150 is as follows:the chance of winning 85 times in a row X the number of combonations of 85 games out of 150(.1923 ^ 85) X 150!/[(85!) X (150-85)!]Now, this is chance it will happen exactly 85 times. For what we care about (the chance of the underpair winning 85 times OR MORE), we must use that same equation replacing the 85 with (86,87,...,149,150).Chance of underpair winning exactly 85 times: 3.38X10^-1886 times: 4.91 X 10^-1987 times: 6.95 X 10^-20After this, the terms start to get so small that they have no bearing on the significance of the answer as far as we are concerned.The chance of the underpair winning 85 times or more is in the neighborhood of 4*10^-18 or .0000000000000004%That would seem quite the oddity if it were true. Are you completely sure that you only counted hands in which the players were all in preflop? I think there must be some flaw in your approach to this problem, and see no reason why online poker rooms would want to see the underpair win so much.edit: my strong suit is math, not spelling, suck it

[krup24 0]

Man, you all suck at probability and basic math.  4.2:1 is a 23.8% chance? nice one.  Try more like 19.23%.As far as figuring out the chance that the underpair would win 85 times out of 150 is as follows:the chance of winning 85 times in a row X the number of combonations of 85 games out of 150(.1923 ^ 85) X 150!/[(85!) X (150-85)!]Now, this is chance it will happen exactly 85 times.  For what we care about (the chance of the underpair winning 85 times OR MORE), we must use that same equation replacing the 85 with (86,87,...,149,150).Chance of underpair winning exactly 85 times: 3.38X10^-1886 times: 2.56 X 10^-1887 times: 1.88 X 10^-1888 times: 1.35 X 10^-1889 times: 9.37 X 10^-1990 times: 6.35 X 10^-19After this, the terms start to get so small that they have no bearing on the significance of the answer as far as we are concerned.The chance of the underpair winning 85 times or more is in the neighborhood of 10^-17 or .000000000000001%That would seem quite the oddity if it were true.  Are you completely sure that you only counted hands in which the players were all in preflop?  I think there must be some flaw in your approach to this problem, and see no reason why online poker rooms would want to see the underpair win so much.

First of yes I only counted hands with all ins preflop.Second of all I am have taken collegiate calculus 1 - 5 and probability and statistics 1-2. So I have an extensive background in mathematics. Third of all last time I checked 1/4.2 = .238 or 23.8% (would love to see how you got 19.23. 5:1 is 20% so where is 19.23 coming from.Fourth I am talking the probability of RANDOM events occuring repeatedly. Where you came up with that formula is a mystery to me. This is simple probability. Your formula is wrong. Think about what you are saying. An overpair beating an under 85 of 150x is 10^-17 or .000000000000001%. Now if math is your forte you would realize that this is way way way off. Seriously think about the number.23.8% chance 85x out of 150With your number you have a better shot at winning the Powerball.

[NickG 0]

Man, you all suck at probability and basic math.  4.2:1 is a 23.8% chance? nice one.  Try more like 19.23%.As far as figuring out the chance that the underpair would win 85 times out of 150 is as follows:the chance of winning 85 times in a row X the number of combonations of 85 games out of 150(.1923 ^ 85) X 150!/[(85!) X (150-85)!]Now, this is chance it will happen exactly 85 times.  For what we care about (the chance of the underpair winning 85 times OR MORE), we must use that same equation replacing the 85 with (86,87,...,149,150).Chance of underpair winning exactly 85 times: 3.38X10^-1886 times: 4.91 X 10^-1987 times: 6.95 X 10^-20After this, the terms start to get so small that they have no bearing on the significance of the answer as far as we are concerned.The chance of the underpair winning 85 times or more is in the neighborhood of 4*10^-18 or .0000000000000004%That would seem quite the oddity if it were true.  Are you completely sure that you only counted hands in which the players were all in preflop?  I think there must be some flaw in your approach to this problem, and see no reason why online poker rooms would want to see the underpair win so much.edit: my strong suit is math, not spelling, suck it

Don't you have to multiply the whole formula by (1-p)^(N-n), or .8^65?But you are pretty close, and I agree that the probability of this occurring randomly are microscopic. (I was getting the 24% from what someone else posted; it obviously varies depending on the pairs, but it is much closer to 20% than 24%.)

[NickG 0]

Man, you all suck at probability and basic math.  4.2:1 is a 23.8% chance? nice one.  Try more like 19.23%.As far as figuring out the chance that the underpair would win 85 times out of 150 is as follows:the chance of winning 85 times in a row X the number of combonations of 85 games out of 150(.1923 ^ 85) X 150!/[(85!) X (150-85)!]Now, this is chance it will happen exactly 85 times.  For what we care about (the chance of the underpair winning 85 times OR MORE), we must use that same equation replacing the 85 with (86,87,...,149,150).Chance of underpair winning exactly 85 times: 3.38X10^-1886 times: 2.56 X 10^-1887 times: 1.88 X 10^-1888 times: 1.35 X 10^-1889 times: 9.37 X 10^-1990 times: 6.35 X 10^-19After this, the terms start to get so small that they have no bearing on the significance of the answer as far as we are concerned.The chance of the underpair winning 85 times or more is in the neighborhood of 10^-17 or .000000000000001%That would seem quite the oddity if it were true.  Are you completely sure that you only counted hands in which the players were all in preflop?  I think there must be some flaw in your approach to this problem, and see no reason why online poker rooms would want to see the underpair win so much.

First of yes I only counted hands with all ins preflop.Second of all I am have taken collegiate calculus 1 - 5 and probability and statistics 1-2. So I have an extensive background in mathematics. Third of all last time I checked 1/4.2 = .238 or 23.8% (would love to see how you got 19.23. 5:1 is 20% so where is 19.23 coming from.Fourth I am talking the probability of RANDOM events occuring repeatedly. Where you came up with that formula is a mystery to me. This is simple probability. Your formula is wrong. Think about what you are saying. An overpair beating an under 85 of 150x is 10^-17 or .000000000000001%. Now if math is your forte you would realize that this is way way way off. Seriously think about the number.23.8% chance 85x out of 150With your number you have a better shot at winning the Powerball.

Odds of 1:4.2 doesn't mean 1/4.2, it means 1/5.2. I've always found odds to be a counterintuitive way to express probability, I don't really know why they are still used so extensively.

[sanemancrazywrld 0]

Man, you all suck at probability and basic math.  4.2:1 is a 23.8% chance? nice one.  Try more like 19.23%.As far as figuring out the chance that the underpair would win 85 times out of 150 is as follows:the chance of winning 85 times in a row X the number of combonations of 85 games out of 150(.1923 ^ 85) X 150!/[(85!) X (150-85)!]

You forgot the (1-.1983)^65 term, so the correct probabilities are all smaller than what you have. My original post gives the correct overall probability, assuming each one has a 1/5.2 chance of occurring (which is of course not exactly true).

[sanemancrazywrld 0]

 With your number you have a better shot at winning the Powerball.

Winning powerball is way more than a billion times more likely than an underpair beating an overpair at least 85 times in 150 tries.

[krup24 0]

Winning powerball is way more than a billion times more likely than an underpair beating an overpair at least 85 times in 150 tries.

You are a total moron

[NickG 0]

Winning powerball is way more than a billion times more likely than an underpair beating an overpair at least 85 times in 150 tries.

You are a total moron

Actually, I'm pretty sure he's right. Although a lot of the situations included in the "trial" are not p=.1938. Including stuff like AK v. KJ raises this probability by several orders of magnitude.

[sanemancrazywrld 0]

Winning powerball is way more than a billion times more likely than an underpair beating an overpair at least 85 times in 150 tries.

You are a total moron

A billion is a gross understimate by the way, I was just trying to keep it in a language you'd understand. Evidently I've failed. Let's start you off slow krup. What is the probability of getting heads at least twice in ten tosses of a fair coin? Someone with your extensive background should be able to get that pretty quick.

[krup24 0]

A billion is a gross understimate by the way, I was just trying to keep it in a language you'd understand.  Evidently I've failed.  Let's start you off slow krup.  What is the probability of getting heads at least twice in ten tosses of a fair coin?  Someone with your extensive background should be able to get that pretty quick.

Without a calculation it's greater than 99% (mathmematical supergenius)what if the head side was 1.5x more likely to occur and the tails side was completely faded away.Clown - GO TO COLLEGE

[NickG 0]

A billion is a gross understimate by the way, I was just trying to keep it in a language you'd understand.  Evidently I've failed.  Let's start you off slow krup.  What is the probability of getting heads at least twice in ten tosses of a fair coin?  Someone with your extensive background should be able to get that pretty quick.

Without a calculation it's greater than 99% (mathmematical supergenius)what if the head side was 1.5x more likely to occur and the tails side was completely faded away.Clown - GO TO COLLEGE

It's not greater than 99%, is it? I get 1013/1024; just under 99%.

[Nutcracker 0]

Man, you all suck at probability and basic math.  4.2:1 is a 23.8% chance? nice one.  Try more like 19.23%.As far as figuring out the chance that the underpair would win 85 times out of 150 is as follows:the chance of winning 85 times in a row X the number of combonations of 85 games out of 150(.1923 ^ 85) X 150!/[(85!) X (150-85)!]

You forgot the (1-.1983)^65 term, so the correct probabilities are all smaller than what you have. My original post gives the correct overall probability, assuming each one has a 1/5.2 chance of occurring (which is of course not exactly true).

You're right, I forgot that term. That moves the decimal over about 7 places.

[Abbaddabba 0]

As far as i can tell, the biggest problem is the auto-muck feature (unless you click to show) on most sites. It's rare that a player wants to flash his cards after having lost with a vastly inferior hand. On the other hand, someone who gets ****ed over when they've got aces is going to want to show it every time.

[krup24 0]

It's not greater than 99%, is it?  I get 1013/1024; just under 99%.

Like I said I did it in my head.

[krup24 0]

As far as i can tell, the biggest problem is the auto-muck feature (unless you click to show) on most sites.  It's rare that a player wants to flash his cards after having lost with a vastly inferior hand.  On the other hand, someone who gets censored over when they've got aces is going to want to show it every time.

I see what your saying but I'm talking about a showdown when the cards are flipped over preflop.

[sanemancrazywrld 0]

A billion is a gross understimate by the way, I was just trying to keep it in a language you'd understand.  Evidently I've failed.  Let's start you off slow krup.  What is the probability of getting heads at least twice in ten tosses of a fair coin?  Someone with your extensive background should be able to get that pretty quick.

Without a calculation it's greater than 99% (mathmematical supergenius)what if the head side was 1.5x more likely to occur and the tails side was completely faded away.Clown - GO TO COLLEGE

If heads is 1.5 times more likely than tails, the answer is 0.9983223. As far as the college comment goes, that's nasty. I already told you that Dupont community college turned me down. If they'd have taken me, I'd have been in there in a shot.