Swift_Psycho 1 Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 Ugh, so close with the Portland bet. Link to post Share on other sites
Swift_Psycho 1 Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 Well, here's what I do.. I generally will trust Vegas insider's data, as it is actual money wagered at sportsbook.com But If i'm in doubt, I'll do something like check wagerline's "public money" data, to see how much money is being bet on a team, over the course of a season..http://www.wagerline.com/handicapping/publ...ublicmoney.html Thanks for helping me out. Do the line changes on wagerline simply follow line changes from like sportsbook.com/VI, or does that site adjust their own line changes independently when they feel it fit? Link to post Share on other sites
Swift_Psycho 1 Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 Only two NBA games tonight, and both look like they've got pretty one-sided action so far but the line is moving the wrong way. The line for the BCS game keeps moving in favor of Oklahoma, which makes me think that betting a unit on OU at +4 a couple days ago may have been a mistake.Thoughts? Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 Thanks for helping me out. Do the line changes on wagerline simply follow line changes from like sportsbook.com/VI, or does that site adjust their own line changes independently when they feel it fit?I'm honestly not sure, but it almost always matches the most common line at vegasinsider, so I trust it.Only two NBA games tonight, and both look like they've got pretty one-sided action so far but the line is moving the wrong way. The line for the BCS game keeps moving in favor of Oklahoma, which makes me think that betting a unit on OU at +4 a couple days ago may have been a mistake.Thoughts?ummmm I still think betting is heavy on florida, but with the NC game, I imagine Vegas is risk adverse.. I don't like that I have it locked in at five... keep one thing in mind, though, moving from 4 to 5 is not that big of deal.. not as big, as, say, moving 3 to 3 1/2, or 6 1/2 to 7 1/2. Basically, the move is from 4 to 41/2, as very few games are actually won by 5 points. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 Also, I'm up 20 units since I started betting for cash... I'm afraid people in the sports betting thread are going to quit me. Link to post Share on other sites
Swift_Psycho 1 Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 I'm honestly not sure, but it almost always matches the most common line at vegasinsider, so I trust it.I just noticed that wagerline had moved their BCS line all the way to +7.5 OU, which is why I was curious about whether they tried to stay with VI or just did their own thing. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 I just noticed that wagerline had moved their BCS line all the way to +7.5 OU, which is why I was curious about whether they tried to stay with VI or just did their own thing.WOW! That's the first time I've seen one of their lines so different from the regular lines..... I have no idea how they got that number, TBH.Makes me with I'd picked florida -4, so I could bet OKA +7.5 and free roll. LOL Link to post Share on other sites
Swift_Psycho 1 Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 WOW! That's the first time I've seen one of their lines so different from the regular lines..... I have no idea how they got that number, TBH.Makes me with I'd picked florida -4, so I could bet OKA +7.5 and free roll. LOLIndeed. I wouldn't have cared so much about moving +4 to +5, but a line move that drastic (on any site) makes me a little queasy now. So far that's the only place where the line has done that though. Link to post Share on other sites
CindyLou 11 Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 How many underdogs won outright this bowl season? Seems like a lot. Link to post Share on other sites
HollywoodAFD 0 Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 How many underdogs won outright this bowl season? Seems like a lot.I know one that didn't. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 How many underdogs won outright this bowl season? Seems like a lot.Quite a few.. the dogs have been doing well in general this bowl season ( at least the games I'm betting) Link to post Share on other sites
Swift_Psycho 1 Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 WOW! That's the first time I've seen one of their lines so different from the regular lines..... I have no idea how they got that number, TBH.I think someone has gone nuts over on wagerline. The line just got moved to +14.5 over there. Link to post Share on other sites
Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 The line is going insane. Oklahoma was favoured a second ago. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted January 9, 2009 Author Share Posted January 9, 2009 I think someone has gone nuts over on wagerline. The line just got moved to +14.5 over there. The line is going insane. Oklahoma was favoured a second ago. Pinny opened some alternate lines (Florida -7.5 +165, Oklahoma -3 +192, blah blah blah, etc.), and around that time somebody at the Wagerline switch had a little conniption, freaked out, and started putting those lines up as the legit (-105/-105) prices. I think.I see this thread is still alive. Any of y'all faggots making money? Want to write me a check or give me a place to crash or anything? Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 Pinny opened some alternate lines (Florida -7.5 +165, Oklahoma -3 +192, blah blah blah, etc.), and around that time somebody at the Wagerline switch had a little conniption, freaked out, and started putting those lines up as the legit (-105/-105) prices. I think.I see this thread is still alive. Any of y'all faggots making money? Want to write me a check or give me a place to crash or anything?I'm up 20 units, since the start of the bowl season, when I started the betting for real. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted January 9, 2009 Author Share Posted January 9, 2009 My position tonight (not my bookmaking position, but my position as a player) is Oklahoma +6. The line was jumping all over the place, and I've started to think a little about the way the lines move, and what the books are trying to do. I used to, as a rule, pass if the books moved the line with the money, considering it a bad sign. Now I'm not so sure.In a perfect world, if, say, the Spurs opened as 10 point favorites over the Knicks, the Knicks got all the action, and the line closed at Spurs -11, I'd be on Spurs -10. The only problem is: we don't know that there's going to be reverse line movement until it happens. If there's any value in these lines, it might evaporate if I get down on the Spurs AFTER the line moves. It's confusing, and I'm still not sure how I feel, but I'm not as incredibly wary of spots like the one tonight. I feel like the books set a price, then decided Florida was going to get hit no matter what, so they tried to get as much value as they could. I took Oklahoma when they were +6 (guessed right, since that was about the peak). The line closed at FLA-4, so now I have no idea if I have any value or not. I think I'm more likely to have value with Okie +6 -- I could have sold off my position for a profit if I wanted to, after all -- than any Florida position, so I took it. Whatever. I'll have more to say at some point in the future. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 I took Ok +4 prematurely a few days ago... still learning.. I should have waited on this big game and got action with it was jumping.. I figured the jump from 4 to 5.5 was essentially a jump to 4.5, as almost no games are won by five, so I dont think the line moves were as dramatic as they looked. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted January 9, 2009 Author Share Posted January 9, 2009 I took Ok +4 prematurely a few days ago... still learning.. I should have waited on this big game and got action with it was jumping.. I figured the jump from 4 to 5.5 was essentially a jump to 4.5, as almost no games are won by five, so I dont think the line moves were as dramatic as they looked.It opened at 3.0, moved all the way up to 6.0 (!), and then back down to 4.0. The moves were incredibly dramatic. They moved it off three and onto six... Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 god damn it they've left 6 points on the board this half Link to post Share on other sites
HollywoodAFD 0 Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 Well...this game isn't anything like I expected. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 wish I had Ok +6 Link to post Share on other sites
HollywoodAFD 0 Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 wish I had Ok +11FYPFor what it's worth... I thought it was a solid bet. OU could march down the field 60 yards in 1 minute then they just couldn't put it in.1st and goal.... they run 4 plays and get ZERO points.In the red zone with time running down and a chip shot FG.... they run 1 more play ... INT get ZERO points.FG gets blocked and NO points. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 FYPFor what it's worth... I thought it was a solid bet. OU could march down the field 60 yards in 1 minute then they just couldn't put it in.1st and goal.... they run 4 plays and get ZERO points.In the red zone with time running down and a chip shot FG.... they run 1 more play ... INT get ZERO points.FG gets blocked and NO points.I agree.. i think I got the best of it in that bet, I think that game should have been a pick 'em. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 I don't like a single one of these play off games, except maybe a slight lean on philly and a lean on carolina Link to post Share on other sites
Swift_Psycho 1 Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 I don't like a single one of these play off games, except maybe a slight lean on philly and a lean on carolinaWasn't it you a couple pages ago who said that you really liked the Carolina game? I don't really want to go searching for the quote, but I thought it was you. Link to post Share on other sites
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