Ak Sb Vs Probable Steal

[RabidTortuga 0]

Poker StarsLimit Holdem Ring gameLimit: $0.50/$19 playersConverterPre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with K A 5 folds, CO raises, Button folds, Hero 3-bets, BB folds, CO calls.Flop: 6 4 2 (7SB, 2 players)Hero bets, CO calls.Turn: K (4.5BB, 2 players)Hero bets, CO calls.River: K (6.5BB, 2 players)Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls.Results:Final pot: 10.5BB

[Frez 0]

3 bet river please. I'm sure you're good because he did not raise you in position on the turn.

[Viper_13 0]

3 bet river please. I'm sure you're good because he did not raise you in position on the turn.

I don't think most .5/1 players would raise the turn with just a flush draw.I would play it the same way.

[Frez 0]

I don't think most .5/1 players would raise the turn with just a flush draw.

I see what you mean - the first time I looked at this none of the suits symbols downloaded. So it's possible he has something like QhJh. Maybe that changes the river to a b/c/c. Bet/Curse/Call

[Actuary 3]

Ah and Kh are accounted for which reduces his chances of having the flush.He's in steal pos, which opens his range.He's calling and only calling the turn and flop. I'd severely Discount over pairs like 77-TT, looks more like KQ/K9, or FD.On the river, I revert to the win 1 lose 2 concept. If he's flushing he caps. He might cap Kx too. I'm undecided so I play it softer and just b/c river. His flat call on turn makes makes me think his river pop is bad new too often.I do like the river lead. HU pots like this, you are ahead way too much to check. His raise just says a lot though

[Zach6668 513]

I'd expect a flush draw to raise this flop every time. Does this not happen at these limits? Anyways, a good player would raise the flop here because we have overcard outs like 95% of the time as well (assuming we have like T9hh or something). Anyways, I like a river 3-bet. It's gotta be close though. Actuary makes good points about Ah and Kh being accounted for, lowering the possible combos significantly. I like a 3-bet a lot, the more I think about it.

[Actuary 3]

I'd expect a flush draw to raise this flop every time. Does this not happen at these limits? Anyways, a good player would raise the flop here because we have overcard outs like 95% of the time as well (assuming we have like T9hh or something).

good point. I'm not sure how often it would be raised at that level. (I don't play anymore)By the time the flop and turn and river together are palyed though, what are we left against?Are you putting villain on KQ/KJ and he's to nervous to raise the turn.

[Zach6668 513]

Well ya, lots of guys simply wont raise turns with just top pair, when they get there, but then they see trips on the end and it's a 'zomg trips i raise' moment.I dunno though. Since there's only the one king left, he'll only have limited combos of Kx hands as well, so that kinda balances out the discounts we're giving on the flush combos. What else could he have besides Kx and a flush? (Keeping in mind a bluff won't call a 3-bet)

[Actuary 3]

What else could he have besides Kx and a flush? (Keeping in mind a bluff won't call a 3-bet)

based on flop I take out all over pairs. Now it's possible he has TT and the river gave him confidence to put out a combo bluff/value raise. Maybe we fold JJ-QQ, maybe we call with AQ. I"m stretching here.66 ?There are about 5 reasonable flush combo 14 ish Kx combos we beat.We can't pull a Akishore and 3-bet = fold the river. Too many trips would cap here.The combos says 3-bet river; but I probably put less emphasis than you on the fact he did not raise the flop.I put more on the fact he flat called the turn and raised a card that would support his flop call.

[Zach6668 513]

Yeah, I think, whatever villain had, he played it weird. lol

[RabidTortuga 0]

Just because of the speculation, he showed me T 7

[Actuary 3]

Just because of the speculation, he showed me T 7

that was not a flush draw I was counting.

[Zach6668 513]

For the sake of argument, villain is a 2p2-reading TAG with a ASB of 40%.From the CO, his range should be about the top 35% then:55+,A2s+,K3s+,Q6s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A4o+,K8o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9oSo, aside from cutting out some of the strongest hands that would cap preflop, we could pick his possible flush combos from this range.Although, I still discount some portion for not raising the flop, especially if we figure him for a 2p2-reading TAG.

[Actuary 3]

For the sake of argument, villain is a 2p2-reading TAG with a ASB of 40%.[snip]55+,A2s+,K3s+,Q6s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A4o+,K8o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o[snip]

Yeah, and I took out T7s from his range because if he was aggresive enough to raise that preflop, then he'd raise the flop with it.You just never know. I think I asked once what was the one thing that made the difference in winning players. I forget the answers. And I wasn't talking about avoiding tilt or BR managment.I always thought my advantage was playing against bad players lol.So no special tricks were needed.