3-better C/r Me Hu On Flop

[Zach6668 513]

Ok, I suppose I can buy into this slightly.We're assuming that non-K, non-A cards were folded, meaning there are 6 A,K left in a deck of 36, rather than 50 unseen cards.PokerStove doesn't change the equity when I randomly assign dead cards, unless I do it under Monte Carlo.Even then, I have a hard time believing that we can complete discount that no one folded A2o, or K4o, etc.

[Actuary 3]

Ok, I suppose I can buy into this slightly.

yeah, it gives you some info about the folded cards, and thus remaining cards.

[Zach6668 513]

yeah, it gives you some info about the folded cards, and thus remaining cards.

I still don't think it means anything that they folded.There are more unplayable ace and king hands than there are playable.

[Actuary 3]

I still don't think it means anything that they folded.There are more unplayable ace and king hands than there are playable.

arrrggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggYou are like my wife.You say you buy into it; but then you say it has no effect?No effect on the odds or the correct play?

[Zach6668 513]

arrrggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggYou are like my wife.You say you buy into it; but then you say it has no effect?No effect on the odds or the correct play?

I only said I buy into it if we're assuming that we know the exact cards that are folded. Bear with me here, I'm working my way through this and posting as I go, lol.My latest thought is that there's no way we can logically assign any amount of non-aces and kings being folded that is any different from a standard normal distribution (or whichever distribution is most applicable, I don't recall first year stats too well). If we can assume people play every ace and every king, maybe, but there are more unplayable ace and king hands than there are playable, even if we assume moderately loose players.A8+, K7+ would be half of the hands, and certainly even loose players don't play every hand there.I'd also argue that players entering the pot are hands other than aces more often than they are aces, so that we shouldn't discount anything anyways.

[Actuary 3]

I only said I buy into it if we're assuming that we know the exact cards that are folded. Bear with me here, I'm working my way through this and posting as I go, lol.

If you were to look at the playable hands from the first 7/8 positions, vs all possible hands, there would be a bias towards hands with Aces or Kings. Of the set of playable hands, a higher percentage contain an Ace or King, than the set of unplayable hands.It doesn't matter that less than 50% are playable, even with an Ace.It only matters that there is a bias towards playing hands with Ace/King

[Zach6668 513]

Nope, not completely sold yet.Maybe a function of the games I play vs the games Barry plays?

[Moneyball16 0]

Were not saying that everyone is playing any Ax or Kx they get. Actuary and I are just saying that there are alot more Ax and Kx our opponents will play than hands that include any other single card. For example a TAG will probably fold any hand that includes a 6,5,4,3, or 2 in it UTG 10 handed, but even though he will fold more Ax and Kx than Ax and Kx hands hed play, when he folds its a safe assumption that hed be more likely to fold a 2x hand than an Ax hand thus increasing the number of As in the deck. We can all agree that its pretty marginal though and not worth that much EV.Also I dont think this concept changes when you go up or down in limits.

[RISEorFall 0]

both of you are right.sort of.Actuary and Moneyball are saying that because it folded to the SB, there's a greater chance most of the As and Ks are left in the deck. once it gets around to MP3+, I agree as now a lot of opening hands from these positions would contain As and Ks. utg - mp2 i dont think you can really say much for, though.combo # wise, it's more likely hands without As or Ks were folded, since we have one of each. i really dont think this matters that much, though, to be honestand if it does, we couldnt calculate our adjusted equity because we dont know how many As or Ks were folded for sure, so i think it's basically a waste of time

[DrZebra 0]

both of you are right.sort of.Actuary and Moneyball are saying that because it folded to the SB, there's a greater chance most of the As and Ks are left in the deck. once it gets around to MP3+, I agree as now a lot of opening hands from these positions would contain As and Ks. utg - mp2 i dont think you can really say much for, though.combo # wise, it's more likely hands without As or Ks were folded, since we have one of each. i really dont think this matters that much, though, to be honestand if it does, we couldnt calculate our adjusted equity because we dont know how many As or Ks were folded for sure, so i think it's basically a waste of time

The whole point of this discussion was that I was saying that 5 folds does not mean it is suddenly the same as a short-handed game...it is different.That is all.

[Moneyball16 0]

The whole point of this discussion was that I was saying that 5 folds does not mean it is suddenly the same as a short-handed game...it is different.That is all.

To be honest Id rather raise QJo in the HJ when playing full ring than I would playing shorthanded. FR players dont adjust aswell to LP vs. blind hands as 6-Max players do and you wont get played back at as much preflop or postflop.

[Actuary 3]

Nope, not completely sold yet.

Do you believe that 1+1=2 ?I just need to know where your head is.

[Zach6668 513]

Do you believe that 1+1=2 ?I just need to know where your head is.

I just said that in hopes that you continued to prove it to me mathematically rather than let the momentum die.

[Actuary 3]

I just said that in hopes that you continued to prove it to me mathematically rather than let the momentum die.

you are bating meAnd I am above that.

[Zach6668 513]

you are bating meAnd I am above that.

I'm 100% serious.You saw that the likelihood of aces being left in the deck increases. Prove to me that the folds in EP and LP prove that there is a higher percentage left.*edit - I think that I may have had something confused in my head earlier. I think if it folds to MP3, etc, most aces will raise and a lot of Kings, especially from CO and Button, so it gives a little bit more credibility to the theory, imo.

[Actuary 3]

list all possible sets of 8 two card hands.now, mark them as playable or not, with postions in mindnow look at the times when none of the 8 hands are playable.now look how many Aces are left in the deck in each case and get a weighted avenow look at the times when at least one player has a playable handnow look how many Aces are left in the deck in each these cases and get a weighted aveI bet you'll see that there are more Aces left in the deck, on average, when no one has a playable hand.I C-A-N-N-O-T M-A-K-E I-T A-N-Y C-L-E-A-R-E-R

[RISEorFall 0]

I think if it folds to MP3, etc, most aces will raise and a lot of Kings, especially from CO and Button, so it gives a little bit more credibility to the theory, imo.

dont pass that off as your opinion when i obviously said the same thing a few posts back

[Zach6668 513]

dont pass that off as your opinion when i obviously said the same thing a few posts back

You really think I read all your posts?

[Zach6668 513]

list all possible sets of 8 two card hands.now, mark them as playable or not, with postions in mindnow look at the times when none of the 8 hands are playable.now look how many Aces are left in the deck in each case and get a weighted avenow look at the times when at least one player has a playable handnow look how many Aces are left in the deck in each these cases and get a weighted aveI bet you'll see that there are more Aces left in the deck, on average, when no one has a playable hand.I C-A-N-N-O-T M-A-K-E I-T A-N-Y C-L-E-A-R-E-R

Could ya do that for me plz?

[RISEorFall 0]

You really think I read all your posts?

not really sometimes i think nobody but me reads them

[RISEorFall 0]

since this is like the 19th thread that got hijacked todayis everybody down with raise pf, call 3-betcheck behind the flopcall down if he donks the flopb/c if he checksand bet the river if he just c/c the turn?

[Moneyball16 0]

since this is like the 19th thread that got hijacked todayis everybody down with raise pf, call 3-betcheck behind the flopcall down if he donks the flopb/c if he checksand bet the river if he just c/c the turn?

Im down.

[RISEorFall 0]

Im down.

whoop 3rd line was supposed to be call down if he donks the turn, not the flop