Flopped Big Draw Early

[Bubba83 0]

At least you had 16 outs twice. Maybe 15 if he had a club.

[ChrisRichey 1]

i hate you

[meservery 0]

Especially if you aren't very comfortable postflop, and seeing as you are thinking about calling/pushing over this gigantic overbet I'd say you shouldn't be looking to make more post flop decisions than necessary.

uh, are you taking a shot?

[tskillz187 0]

uh, are you taking a shot?

I guess if you take it that way, then yes. I think good postflop players won't push here, especially since he makes so many mistakes post flop you will make clearcut better decisions in better spots than here. That's what good postflop players do, pick off bluffs, control pot size, etc. It's not about making a big call early on a big guess, IMO.Plus, I don't consider myself a great post flop player but I recognize it and don't mess around in a lot of pots. I wouldn't make the initial small PF raise that you did in this case.

[Bubba83 0]

Why do you think being a good postflop player means being a passive postflop player?

[tskillz187 0]

Why do you think being a good postflop player means being a passive postflop player?

"That's what good postflop players do, pick off bluffs, control pot size, etc. It's not about making a big call early on a big guess, IMO." I don't think that's passive. The bold is what I stated one up.More things can be added to what good postflop players do. Make thin value bets, keep the pressure on their opponents which is a lot like controlling pot size. People that are confident in their postflop game make the small raise to 50 pf to build this pot for when they hit and also because they are confident they will win the pot when no one hits. Im sure that's what the OP was thinking when he raised it up a little bit, but when the Villain leads out for WAY more than the pot, OP can no longer control pot size and is in a guessing game, one in which I'm convinced he's at best a slight favorite if right and one in which I'm also convinced that there isn't fold equity for. If he were confident in his postflop play he would make the little raise which is what he did, so he must think he's a good postflop player. If he does think he is a good postflop player he should want to pass this one up because he will be able to chop away with other pots until he can manipulate a big pot in a much better spot.

[Bubba83 0]

Folding because you feel uncomfortable without being able to control the pot size is a really shitty reason to fold. We aren't playing Daniel Negreanu small ball poker in the Bellagio week long $25,000 WPT event here, we're playing an MTT online with a regular structure. I never find myself thinking "I can pass up this hand because I only have 60% equity and I think I can get my chips with better equity later" with structures like this. The only time that kind of thinking could be alright is when the pay structure starts to become apparent in our decisions. This is early in an MTT where it would be very advantageous to double, or just pick up the pot and have most people covered."That's what good postflop players do, pick off bluffs, control pot size, etc. It's not about making a big call early on a big guess, IMO." I don't understand this at all. The play I was suggesting along with a ton of other posters was to move all-in on the flop, not call. It would be atrocious to just call his flop bet. If we were making a big call early on a big guess as you seemed to skew it, then I would have to agree that folding is a better play, but that isn't the situation we have here at all.

[navybuttons 15]

I guess if you take it that way, then yes. I think good postflop players won't push here, especially since he makes so many mistakes post flop you will make clearcut better decisions in better spots than here. That's what good postflop players do, pick off bluffs, control pot size, etc. It's not about making a big call early on a big guess, IMO.Plus, I don't consider myself a great post flop player but I recognize it and don't mess around in a lot of pots. I wouldn't make the initial small PF raise that you did in this case.

tskillz, you are a super contributor to the forum. i'm glad you stood up for what i believe is pretty close to my line here. or generally, that i don't like the shove.i typically never limp into a pot if i'm first in, unless the table is really weak and i won't be punished for it. (of course i don't make a habit of playing small suited connectors up front or in MP). i don't mind the raise to 50. i don't think people who call 50 would fold to 60 and i like to keep pots as small as possible if i can. i'm also really comfortable post flop. (whether or not i should be is debatable )i'd like to maybe suggest a line that hasn't been said yet. i don't think a smooth call here is atrocious (this is SUPER dependent on the structure). hero still has an M of 90 and he can get a lot more creative in the hand where he has a monster. if the turn blanks and villain bets big again hero can let it go, if villain bets small enough hero has odds to continue. if the turn blanks and villain checks, hero can make bet (basically a weird type stop and go) where hero was gonna get it in anyway and now i think he has more fold equity . if turn hits and villain bets hero's gonna stack him. if turn hits and villain checks, hero has 2 options, he can check behind and shove on the river value bet or he can make small bets looking to get villain to continue. a villain who seems so new that he bets like this on the flop will not understand that the bets were made to get someone to continue. you'd bet about 500 on the turn and and shove on the river.if villain checks, hero bets small and villain folds then villain had nothing and was gonna fold the flop shove anyway.but i'd definitely rather fold than shove. even if villain showed 99 and said he was gonna call a shove i don't do it.

[meservery 0]

but i'd definitely rather fold than shove. even if villain showed 99 and said he was gonna call a shove i don't do it.

While I don't agree with flat calling the flop bet, your reasoning does sound good.But if you knew the guy had only 99 you definitely should not mind pitting your stack against villians.Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 990 games 0.016 secs 61,875 games/secBoard: Kc 6c JdDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 63.232% 63.23% 00.00% 626 0.00 { AcTc }Hand 1: 36.768% 36.77% 00.00% 364 0.00 { 9d9s }---

[Bubba83 0]

Is a player who just led out 4x the pot on the flop going to ever slow down on the turn? With our read on him, it doesn't seem like it. The only way I could see him slowing down is if:( A ) He had the lead preflop and was making some ridiculous c-bet with nothing.This isn't the case here.( B ) The flush card hits.We don't want him to slowdown if this happens, because unless we have implied odds, our call on the flop was quite bad.When all is said and done, I like moving all-in > fold > call.

[tskillz187 0]

Folding because you feel uncomfortable without being able to control the pot size is a really shitty reason to fold.

Why? I'm assuming because if you think you are way ahead it shouldn't matter that the pot got big? If that's the reason I guess it comes down to at what % do you make the call and when do you pass it up. I've read the Matros, Phillips and all that, but I still disagree with taking big flips.

This is early in an MTT where it would be very advantageous to double, or just pick up the pot and have most people covered.

Obviously it's better to have more chips than less, but we just had a decent thread about how an early double should not change your early game except to play tighter. If you agree with this reasoning (which you may not, but I do) then the early double is not that important to me, especially at risk of gambler's ruin (can't come back from 0).

"That's what good postflop players do, pick off bluffs, control pot size, etc. It's not about making a big call early on a big guess, IMO." I don't understand this at all. The play I was suggesting along with a ton of other posters was to move all-in on the flop, not call. It would be atrocious to just call his flop bet. If we were making a big call early on a big guess as you seemed to skew it, then I would have to agree that folding is a better play, but that isn't the situation we have here at all.

My take on the hand is that his bet is to price out flush draws and straight draws. I know the read is that he has done this a few times, but that doesn't mean he isn't fishing for a donk to take his bait and shove over the top of him. He may be a bad player but recognize that he's not good enough to fold top pair ever, so when he gets it he just puts the pedal to the metal. So when he bets 600, to me, he's saying we are playing for all my chips. I think there is close to no FE and he's putting you to a decision for all of your chips by only betting 600. It seems silly here, but this is another example of someone good at post flop play, he risks his stack vs your stack at the expense of much fewer chips. Although I would agree he probably did it accidentally. I think the shove is a "big call" because I think his stack is going in 90+%ish of the time.

[tskillz187 0]

Is a player who just led out 4x the pot on the flop going to ever slow down on the turn? With our read on him, it doesn't seem like it. The only way I could see him slowing down is if:( A ) He had the lead preflop and was making some ridiculous c-bet with nothing (not the case here)or...( B ) The flush card hits. (we don't want him to slowdown if this happens, because unless we have implied odds, our call on the flop was quite bad)

Agree. I don't think he slows down regardless of turn, he bet the 600 IMO to say he was playing for his chips, hes shoving every single turn. I think call is the worst of the options. Push you are a small favorite over most of his holdings and you get paid off the most every time you hit. Call you don't get to see both cards and you are a dog to hit on the turn, if he gives you free turn (not likely) you aren't getting paid off on the river when you do hit in most cases.Fold>Push>Call (IMO )

[Bubba83 0]

Why? I'm assuming because if you think you are way ahead it shouldn't matter that the pot got big? If that's the reason I guess it comes down to at what % do you make the call and when do you pass it up. I've read the Matros, Phillips and all that, but I still disagree with taking big flips.Obviously it's better to have more chips than less, but we just had a decent thread about how an early double should not change your early game except to play tighter.

This isn't a flip. Most of the times we are called we are ahead, or sometimes in a direct flip (we're always going to have at least 13 clean outs twice) Also, most of Matros/Phillips theory with big flips early has to do with us being put to the test and why making the call is correct if we are 50/50. I'm not sure I agree with their theory once you factor in how bad the players are, the structure, and tournament entry fees. In this hand, we are the ones pushing so we are putting him to a decision, and he isn't going to have any clue if he's way behind or flipping.

He may be a bad player but recognize that he's not good enough to fold top pair ever, so when he gets it he just puts the pedal to the metal. So when he bets 600, to me, he's saying we are playing for all my chips. I think there is close to no FE and he's putting you to a decision for all of your chips by only betting 600. It seems silly here, but this is another example of someone good at post flop play, he risks his stack vs your stack at the expense of much fewer chips. Although I would agree he probably did it accidentally. I think the shove is a "big call" because I think his stack is going in 90+%ish of the time.

We don't know that he's not good enough to fold top pair ever. We do now, but we didn't when the decision was at hand. I think the results are probably influencing your "he calls more than 90% of the time" kind of thinking. I disagree that he calls 90+% of the time, but even if we had a read that he calls 90% of the time with hands as weak as top pair (which we don't) I'd still make this shove.

[tskillz187 0]

I'm just going to let the topic die now, I don't think either of us are going to change our thoughts and anyone that was reading has seen me exhaust my argument.

[Bubba83 0]

I was going to say the same thing.I get carried away easily going back and forth when I'm mostly just posting the same stuff over and over in different ways.

[navybuttons 15]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 990 games 0.016 secs 61,875 games/secBoard: Kc 6c JdDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 63.232% 63.23% 00.00% 626 0.00 { AcTc }Hand 1: 36.768% 36.77% 00.00% 364 0.00 { 9d9s }---

i didn't realize it was so big, i'll recant that part.the rest i still don't mind standing by.

[Footballguru 0]

This is crazy to me for all of you saying push. Even if you have the 15 outs that you want, you are like a 55-45 favorite here. That's basically our best case scenario. Unless you think hes firing 600 with less than nut flush draws which I think is way in the minority. Anyways if we have a villain willing to lead 4x pot bets into our PF raises, why not wait until we have a monster? Seems like a lot of gamble for no reason, we aren't committed to the pot, it's not a big pot, the blinds are low. Everything points to fold!

I read an article by matt matros where he says our skill is to get the money in where we are 50-50...here with our FE we are def. more than 50-50....matros did alot of mathematical equations saying even if we are a good player relative to the field, we have a better chance of doubling up on a 50-50 chance than we do of small balling or waiting for a monster.

[copernicus 0]

I read an article by matt matros where he says our skill is to get the money in where we are 50-50...here with our FE we are def. more than 50-50....matros did alot of mathematical equations saying even if we are a good player relative to the field, we have a better chance of doubling up on a 50-50 chance than we do of small balling or waiting for a monster.

If its the cardplayer article I read a while ago the assumptions he made to support the results were way out of line imo. Most of the "long ball" supporters use a "double up on all ins" model to demonstrate the chances of winning. The problem with that is that small ball doesnt follow that model. The vast majority of the time you are getting your money in with highly leveraged results. Your equity % may not be much better than 50:50 but you are getting a lot of overlays because it so difficult to pin down your trapping hands.