Sng Variance- This Is Ridiculous

[hockeylax3 0]

I know this probably shouldn't be in general, but it will get the best response there. I have finished out of the money in 34 sngs outta my last 38. 32 of those 34 i have got it all in with the best of it. Is this a typical downswing for 22$ sngs on stars or is it out of the ordinary? any advice would be great, as i've never had this bad of a downswing playing sngs.

[silkyjonson 1]

I know this probably shouldn't be in general, but it will get the best response there. I have finished out of the money in 34 sngs outta my last 38. 32 of those 34 i have got it all in with the best of it. Is this a typical downswing for 22$ sngs on stars or is it out of the ordinary? any advice would be great, as i've never had this bad of a downswing playing sngs.

You need way more info to figure that out. I mean are you playing so tight that you get widdled down to nothing before you get it in with the best hand? Lots of info needed but I'm sure your just fishing for a "its just variance dude" and it may well be. soits just variance dude

[NOFX_PUNK 0]

I know this probably shouldn't be in general, but it will get the best response there. I have finished out of the money in 34 sngs outta my last 38. 32 of those 34 i have got it all in with the best of it. Is this a typical downswing for 22$ sngs on stars or is it out of the ordinary? any advice would be great, as i've never had this bad of a downswing playing sngs.

I would say play $25 max 6 handed cash games and play in the same way, people love to get all their chips in more so than any other limit and as such getting all of yours in with the best hand means that u will be winning MONEY rather than a higher place in the tourney, plus u are never forced to push or call with anything you don't want to so u can hopefully the avoid bad beats more frequently, but no it's not unheard of, I have finished out of the money in 8 of my last 10 $22 SnGs, won 6 of the last 10 and finished in the money twice more in $5 SnGs and finished in the money 6 times of the last 10 and won one of the last $33 SnGs and finished in the money 5/10 $55 SnGs and won 2, perhaps the interesting anomoly is we both suck at $22 SnGs, try moving to $33s or if this has hurt ur roll drop to the $11s or $16 turbos, or as i said before think about similar limit cash games, if u can afford to lose $22 in a game u can sure afford $25 with the prospect of making more $$$

[hockeylax3 0]

No i mean i have lost in every kind of situation in these. short stack, large stack, bubble, 5th hand with KK vs 44. If it were me losing in 4th or 5th every time as the shortie it would be much easier to figure out. I had one even i was in 1st with 5 left AA lost to AK to the 2nd stack n i was down to antes n out in 4th. it just seems to be kind of ridiculous even for a bi t ch like variance

[KUPoker5 0]

No i mean i have lost in every kind of situation in these. short stack, large stack, bubble, 5th hand with KK vs 44. If it were me losing in 4th or 5th every time as the shortie it would be much easier to figure out. I had one even i was in 1st with 5 left AA lost to AK to the 2nd stack n i was down to antes n out in 4th. it just seems to be kind of ridiculous even for a bi t ch like variance

Call up customer support and ask them to please flip the doomswitch back off. If you ask nicely, they should comply.

[hockeylax3 0]

Call up customer support and ask them to please flip the doomswitch back off. If you ask nicely, they should comply.

haha any one have Lee's cell #?

[silkyjonson 1]

No i mean i have lost in every kind of situation in these. short stack, large stack, bubble, 5th hand with KK vs 44. If it were me losing in 4th or 5th every time as the shortie it would be much easier to figure out. I had one even i was in 1st with 5 left AA lost to AK to the 2nd stack n i was down to antes n out in 4th. it just seems to be kind of ridiculous even for a bi t ch like variance

Poker makes you question yourself over and over and over. Look at Daniel who is one of the best in the world. So play your best focus on the future analyze the past and dont question every little aspect. Focus on your decision making not your results, have someone look over your hh if your not sure if your being objective. Keep at it and show variance who is boss.

[antistuff 0]

32 of those 34 i have got it all in with the best of it.

assuming on average you were a 65/35 favorite (seems like a good assumption to me based on my experience playing holdem) im gonna have to call shenanigans on this one.

[hockeylax3 0]

assuming on average you were a 65/35 favorite (seems like a good assumption to me based on my experience playing holdem) im gonna have to call shenanigans on this one.

I have all the histories if you really feel like reading all that.

[antistuff 0]

I have all the histories if you really feel like reading all that.

you know thats like winning the lotto unlikely right?

[hockeylax3 0]

you know thats like winning the lotto unlikely right?

That would be why i posted this

[NOFX_PUNK 0]

assuming on average you were a 65/35 favorite (seems like a good assumption to me based on my experience playing holdem) im gonna have to call shenanigans on this one.

I would have to agree that with my experience in Holdem SnGs having to call an all in with KJo against QTs is a decision you very often have to make, but in those roughly 65% win situations consider this, you have lost nearly 35 in a row, that means you are probably gonna iwn the next 65, give or take one or two.

[hockeylax3 0]

I would have to agree that with my experience in Holdem SnGs having to call an all in with KJo against QTs is a decision you very often have to make, but in those roughly 65% win situations consider this, you have lost nearly 35 in a row, that means you are probably gonna iwn the next 65, give or take one or two.

Well i just won 1 of them with AT vs KJ, so ill let you know about the next 64

[antistuff 0]

I would have to agree that with my experience in Holdem SnGs having to call an all in with KJo against QTs is a decision you very often have to make, but in those roughly 65% win situations consider this, you have lost nearly 35 in a row, that means you are probably gonna iwn the next 65, give or take one or two.

that reminds me of this one time where i had aces hold up for the past ten time i got them. so im on the button and five people limp and i say to myself, self, youre due for them to lose. so i folded them. and guess what? somebody with q4o hit two pair on the flop and i would have lost a ton.

[IQCrash 1]

you know thats like winning the lotto unlikely right?

Actually, the odds of him losing the next 65/35 after the very last one he lost are... you guessed it, 35%.

[antistuff 0]

Actually, the odds of him losing the next 65/35 after the very last one he lost are... you guessed it, 35%.

there is a way to figure out how unlikely it is to lose that many in a row. i dont how to do it, but im pretty sure that losing that many is approaching it doesnt happen land.you are right, but what you said has nothing to do with what i was saying.

[psujohn 0]

that reminds me of this one time where i had aces hold up for the past ten time i got them. so im on the button and five people limp and i say to myself, self, youre due for them to lose. so i folded them. and guess what? somebody with q4o hit two pair on the flop and i would have lost a ton.

Or you could raise and get Q4o to fold and win the pot. But you're right. Just folding is better. Specially when you "have a feeling".

[hockeylax3 0]

So what should I do? Keep playing 22's? My roll can support it for a while unless i go 0/30 again probably. Or should I switch to something else? Would 6 handed be easier/ less fluctuation?

[Mercury69 3]

Stars is rigged.

[antistuff 0]

Or you could raise and get Q4o to fold and win the pot. But you're right. Just folding is better. Specially when you "have a feeling".

they never fold. thats why i moved up to where they respect my raises.

[ianb459 0]

in fischmans book, when he talks about sngs, he mentions that a tyipcal sng player will go on a streak of 5 losing sngs in a row out of 100. you may just be getting these in bunches. Of course, fischmans sngs strat is VERY tight early.you said you cashed 4 of 38, well how do the results of you 62 before that go?say you cashed high in those 62, you may uncover that you are just running bad

[NOFX_PUNK 0]

So what should I do? Keep playing 22's? My roll can support it for a while unless i go 0/30 again probably. Or should I switch to something else? Would 6 handed be easier/ less fluctuation?

Obviously I think it would, 6 handed NL is good for pushing small edges like your 65/35 hands and you'll never HAVE to play them for all your chips, plus the players at $25 max are, for the most part, a joke. 4 tables of 6 handed games shouldeasily net u ~$20/hr if not a lot more if u get paid off with a few good hands. Also, playing 4 tables for an hour gives u four times the chance of hitting big hands than one hour in a one table SnG...

[dunkirk 0]

Are these all single table SNGs with 9 or 10 players or are they larger fields? I've developed a spreadsheet that gives me some insight into the expected variance of SNGs and if you give me the number of players I can give you some insight into the the likelhood of failing to cash in N tourneys etc. Also if you could include your ROI for these tourneys if you have it (or an estimate) I may be able to provide some insight or at least attempt it.

[NOFX_PUNK 0]

in fischmans book, when he talks about sngs, he mentions that a tyipcal sng player will go on a streak of 5 losing sngs in a row out of 100. you may just be getting these in bunches. Of course, fischmans sngs strat is VERY tight early.you said you cashed 4 of 38, well how do the results of you 62 before that go?say you cashed high in those 62, you may uncover that you are just running bad

I have played Fischman in abut 8 SnGs to date and he does just this, site tight for 45 minutes then start pushing very hard at 50/100 blinds with strong hands, it's a easy way to play but he get's real pissy when he loses! lol

[antistuff 0]

in fischmans book, when he talks about sngs, he mentions that a tyipcal sng player will go on a streak of 5 losing sngs in a row out of 100. you may just be getting these in bunches. Of course, fischmans sngs strat is VERY tight early.you said you cashed 4 of 38, well how do the results of you 62 before that go?say you cashed high in those 62, you may uncover that you are just running bad

lol.