Sattelite Question

[chgocubs99 0]

Top 7 advance...what do I do?PokerStars Game #7678203408: Tournament #38633966, $25+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (1500/3000) - 2006/12/30 - 11:40:45 (ET)Table '38633966 8' 9-max Seat #9 is the buttonSeat 1: Divingducky (29870 in chips) Seat 2: seanj66 (27210 in chips) Seat 3: payne max (12150 in chips) Seat 4: T is a G (16720 in chips) Seat 5: mirri (53945 in chips) Seat 6: Wondermike (40050 in chips) Seat 7: Haligon (15370 in chips) Seat 8: 2gd2btru-uk (35100 in chips) Seat 9: chgocubsfan (31585 in chips) Divingducky: posts the ante 150seanj66: posts the ante 150payne max: posts the ante 150T is a G: posts the ante 150mirri: posts the ante 150Wondermike: posts the ante 150Haligon: posts the ante 1502gd2btru-uk: posts the ante 150chgocubsfan: posts the ante 150Divingducky: posts small blind 1500seanj66: posts big blind 3000*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to chgocubsfan [Th Ts]payne max: folds T is a G: folds mirri: folds Wondermike: folds Haligon: folds 2gd2btru-uk: folds chgocubsfan:

[DoinSublime 0]

Top 7 advance...what do I do?PokerStars Game #7678203408: Tournament #38633966, $25+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (1500/3000) - 2006/12/30 - 11:40:45 (ET)Table '38633966 8' 9-max Seat #9 is the buttonSeat 1: Divingducky (29870 in chips) Seat 2: seanj66 (27210 in chips) Seat 3: payne max (12150 in chips) Seat 4: T is a G (16720 in chips) Seat 5: mirri (53945 in chips) Seat 6: Wondermike (40050 in chips) Seat 7: Haligon (15370 in chips) Seat 8: 2gd2btru-uk (35100 in chips) Seat 9: chgocubsfan (31585 in chips) Divingducky: posts the ante 150seanj66: posts the ante 150payne max: posts the ante 150T is a G: posts the ante 150mirri: posts the ante 150Wondermike: posts the ante 150Haligon: posts the ante 1502gd2btru-uk: posts the ante 150chgocubsfan: posts the ante 150Divingducky: posts small blind 1500seanj66: posts big blind 3000*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to chgocubsfan [Th Ts]payne max: folds T is a G: folds mirri: folds Wondermike: folds Haligon: folds 2gd2btru-uk: folds chgocubsfan:

Make it $7,777 to go? You have them covered, so that should strike a little fear into them. I think that raise accomplishes your goal without committing you, and if someone shoves, you can still fold.

[jsull 0]

Make it $7,777 to go? You have them covered, so that should strike a little fear into them. I think that raise accomplishes your goal without committing you, and if someone shoves, you can still fold.

I dunno. I'd want to make it more on the raise, because you really don't want a call here IMO. Make it enough to make him realize you're going to be committed, and they fold most hands. I'd personally make it 10k. It still leaves you 21k behind if he shoves, and you want to fold it. I really dont think at this stage, with those stack sizes, that you're going to have people restealing on you with air, so I think a larger than average raise here will make them not want to commit themselves.This is all dependent on the other players, of course. And also how they perceive you. If they'll fold to just about any raise, then a small raise might be in order. I'd personally make it more, and be ok with the fact that if they play back at you, you still have more than the bottom two guys in chips, because it's not about winning, it's just about surviving.My take on it anyway.

[copernicus 0]

Very tough decision. With nearly 6k in the pot and only blinds behind you theres no raise that gives the BB than 2:1 without pot commiting you. So its fold, call or push. You dont really want to tangle with either of these stacks for a large amount, but you do have position on them. If you fold SB has to at least complete, the odds are overwhelmingly in his favor , so the end of the hand one of those is going to be at least 2M behind you, and the other tied or ahead of you. There are already 3 players substantially behind you, and only 2 need to be eliminated.If you call and one of them wakes up with a hand and gets aggressive pre or post flop you can still get out, but there is only 30% chance that you see a flop without a scare card, and if either of the blinds is smart they will try and take the pot away from you.If you push you make their decision very difficult, because they are a lock for a seat if they win, and out if they lose. If they play it tight they are better than 80% to win a seat (77% random plus some chip stack equity) and there is no hand they can be comfortable is a 4:1 favorite unless they have AA and put you on garbage.The decision maker on pushing is whether will they call and win better than the 15% of the time that you would otherwise be expected to win. There isnt any combination of calling ranges that I can see that combines to a 15% probability of calling and winning. ((ie they have X% chance of actually having the hand and y% chance of it holding up, and X*Y/100 >15)With no read, I push. If Ive seen either of them make loose calls since it got close to the bubble Id fold and let them fight it out.

[navybuttons 15]

Very tough decision. With nearly 6k in the pot and only blinds behind you theres no raise that gives the BB than 2:1 without pot commiting you. So its fold, call or push. You dont really want to tangle with either of these stacks for a large amount, but you do have position on them. If you fold SB has to at least complete, the odds are overwhelmingly in his favor , so the end of the hand one of those is going to be at least 2M behind you, and the other tied or ahead of you. There are already 3 players substantially behind you, and only 2 need to be eliminated.If you call and one of them wakes up with a hand and gets aggressive pre or post flop you can still get out, but there is only 30% chance that you see a flop without a scare card, and if either of the blinds is smart they will try and take the pot away from you.If you push you make their decision very difficult, because they are a lock for a seat if they win, and out if they lose. If they play it tight they are better than 80% to win a seat (77% random plus some chip stack equity) and there is no hand they can be comfortable is a 4:1 favorite unless they have AA and put you on garbage.The decision maker on pushing is whether will they call and win better than the 15% of the time that you would otherwise be expected to win. There isnt any combination of calling ranges that I can see that combines to a 15% probability of calling and winning. ((ie they have X% chance of actually having the hand and y% chance of it holding up, and X*Y/100 >15)With no read, I push. If Ive seen either of them make loose calls since it got close to the bubble Id fold and let them fight it out.

i didn't do all that math stuff, but shove was my first instinct. i don't know why, i guess it's just what i would intuitively do in this situation in a satellite. maybe something about them actually having a hand or the fact that people may tend to play a little too tight in these situations. if you have a really loose image (where they might call you w/ jacks) i think you can call, if you have a really loose image and they are super agressive you can fold. what do we think about a minraise? i'm not sure i like it but i'll have to think about it a bit more.

[copernicus 0]

i didn't do all that math stuff, but shove was my first instinct. i don't know why, i guess it's just what i would intuitively do in this situation in a satellite. maybe something about them actually having a hand or the fact that people may tend to play a little too tight in these situations. if you have a really loose image (where they might call you w/ jacks) i think you can call, if you have a really loose image and they are super agressive you can fold. what do we think about a minraise? i'm not sure i like it but i'll have to think about it a bit more.

It commits a lot of chips and its pretty much an auto call for the big blind. Then he's got the opportunity to decide whether to play on or not, while you are in a set or fold situation 70% of the time that he bets into you on the flop.

[Jam-Fly 8]

Wow, tough decision.Just so I'm reading it right, 9 players left, 7 get tickets, you are 3 players well below you in chips.tbh, I like folding here. There's a few other moves I like - min raising and calling. I don't like the push coz (assuming everyone is playing super tight) the only hands that will call you are AA and KK and maybe QQ. If the table is passive, and a call pf, followed by a small bet on the flop is likely to win the pot, I'd do that.Also, if the table is passive, a min bet to pick it up is good too.I think if the BB is playing super tight, he'll fold most hands and not want to get involved, even though it seems like an automatic call

[copernicus 0]

Wow, tough decision.Just so I'm reading it right, 9 players left, 7 get tickets, you are 3 players well below you in chips.tbh, I like folding here. There's a few other moves I like - min raising and calling. I don't like the push coz (assuming everyone is playing super tight) the only hands that will call you are AA and KK and maybe QQ. If the table is passive, and a call pf, followed by a small bet on the flop is likely to win the pot, I'd do that.Also, if the table is passive, a min bet to pick it up is good too.I think if the BB is playing super tight, he'll fold most hands and not want to get involved, even though it seems like an automatic call

That you will only get called by QQ+ is why you push. There are only two hands behind you, so the chances of QQ+ are under 5%, and by pushing you pick up a very important stack. It gives you almost two orbits until you are back to the stack you have now. min raising and calling have too good a chance of being a waste of chips unless the blinds are extremely passive post flop, because they both should call either bet or one of the two raises. If theres a reraise youre put into a position of calling being at best a coin flip.If hero's stack was 6k more Id fold in a flash.

[chgocubs99 0]

The table, as you may expect in a tournament of this nature, was very tight and passive. We'd just gotten to the final table and I didn't really have any specific reads on the two players, but I was watching both tables when we got down to 2 and the play was about what you'd expect...a lot of folding. My question is this: If I minraise here and either come over the top, am I folding? If the answer to that is yes, I believe I should fold. Their fold equity on a minraise does not make up for the times I will get shoved on or stop and go'd, in my opinion. I am curious to hear thoughts on this point, however.

[copernicus 0]

The table, as you may expect in a tournament of this nature, was very tight and passive. We'd just gotten to the final table and I didn't really have any specific reads on the two players, but I was watching both tables when we got down to 2 and the play was about what you'd expect...a lot of folding. My question is this: If I minraise here and either come over the top, am I folding? If the answer to that is yes, I believe I should fold. Their fold equity on a minraise does not make up for the times I will get shoved on or stop and go'd, in my opinion. I am curious to hear thoughts on this point, however.

Well said. It was part of what I was trying to say in my earlier posts, along with the increase in FE they have on most flops.

[chgocubs99 0]

It commits a lot of chips and its pretty much an auto call for the big blind. Then he's got the opportunity to decide whether to play on or not, while you are in a set or fold situation 70% of the time that he bets into you on the flop.

Well said. It was part of what I was trying to say in my earlier posts, along with the increase in FE they have on most flops.

Actually...you already said the same thing almost word for word...not sure how I missed that, sorry.

[DoinSublime 0]

I have a question. Without a read, is there any way we could assume that since they are shorter stacks than most, that they would shove/call an all in, with any PP less than 1010? Doesn't that increase the hand ranges that are going to play back at us if we do go ahead (speaking mostly in terms of a min raise/call - which imo you have effectively ruled out already - but wondering nonetheless)

[copernicus 0]

I have a question. Without a read, is there any way we could assume that since they are shorter stacks than most, that they would shove/call an all in, with any PP less than 1010? Doesn't that increase the hand ranges that are you going to play back at us if we do go ahead (speaking mostly in terms of a min raise/call - which imo you have effectively ruled out already - but wondering nonetheless)

No, they should be playing very tight because they have signficant chip leads over 3 players and only 2 need to go out. In Sklansky terms, the Gap is huge on/near the bubble in sattelites and the first one in has huge fold equity if it threatens the other stacks tourney life. The worst move you can make is let a middle stack see a flop with good odds by making a raise that doesnt move them below the bottom tier of stacks. That gives them a ton of information without risking their entire tourney.

[DoinSublime 0]

No, they should be playing very tight because they have signficant chip leads over 3 players and only 2 need to go out. In Sklansky terms, the Gap is huge on/near the bubble in sattelites and the first one in has huge fold equity if it threatens the other stacks tourney life. The worst move you can make is let a middle stack see a flop with good odds by making a raise that doesnt move them below the bottom tier of stacks.

Understood. Copernicus, I've read HoH and SS2. Sklansky is next. Anything else you recommend? Thanks for all the insight on this and the low buy in MTT thread.

[copernicus 0]

Understood. Copernicus, I've read HoH and SS2. Sklansky is next. Anything else you recommend? Thanks for all the insight on this and the low buy in MTT thread.

If youve read HoH I and II recently I'd play for a while and then re-read them before I even moved on to anything else (after Sklansky that is). I also like Phil Gordons Little Green Book. I got his Little Blue Book for Christmas but havent started it yet. There is no substitute for playing, especially if you post hands here for discussion.

[Jam-Fly 8]

The HOH series are great, I am rereading them currently but still I think I haven't taken all that can be taken from them.

If youve read HoH I and II recently I'd play for a while and then re-read them before I even moved on to anything else (after Sklansky that is). I also like Phil Gordons Little Green Book. I got his Little Blue Book for Christmas but havent started it yet. There is no substitute for playing, especially if you post hands here for discussion.

LGB seems good from what I've read, it has been very little though.But Copernicus is right, this forum is solid and has alot of valuable info. If you don't feel like studying HOH and you aren't playing, browse thru old posts in this forum, it rly helped my game. Btw, the stuff that Copernicus posts is great, he rly knows his stuff and contributes so much

[smallwd 0]

If youve read HoH I and II recently I'd play for a while and then re-read them before I even moved on to anything else (after Sklansky that is). I also like Phil Gordons Little Green Book. I got his Little Blue Book for Christmas but havent started it yet. There is no substitute for playing, especially if you post hands here for discussion.

I also got Gordon's Little Blue Book for Xmas. It was excellent. Full of real life hands, and he explained all his decisions in the hands and why he made them. He's a little looser than I am, but it was easy to see where the key decisions in the hands are. FWIW...I fold here. You should be able to make top 7 without taking a risk this big.