A8s, Bubble Vs Loose Guy

[Actuary 3]

this fella has emerged in later part of tourney. Willing to call all ins and raiseing preflop regularly.This hand, while not spectacular in any way, is a good example of "if anyone can have my chips, it's you. Because you will call the inevitble all ins from the two shorter stacks. Then, once ITM, I will outplay you. Should I let this go preflop? ( I mean how many flops am I going to go crazy on?)Bet the flop?Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)Hero (t7966)SB (t5938)BB (t3576)UTG (t2520)Preflop: Hero is Button with , . 1 fold, Hero raises to t1500, SB raises to t2400, 1 fold, Hero calls t900.Flop: (t5400) , , (2 players)SB checks, Hero checks.Turn: (t5400) (2 players)SB bets t1000, Hero folds.Final Pot: t6400

[unkysimba 0]

the min reraise bothers me and with two shorter stacks there is no sense in going crazy here, especially if you feel like you can outplay the rest of the table. and, like you said, what kind of flops will you be happy with? if you hit an ace, you cant be too certain of your kicker. IMO there are better times to put your money in than this situation.as played, when people do the min re raise and then act totally weak on the flop, it usually means a big hand (im not saying everytime, but usually) and then he bets out 1/5 of the pot on the turn. folding is definitely a good play here, as he most likely has a big hand and if he doesnt, you have ace 8 high

[XXEddie 0]

I really feel is If villian has like AK/AQ. Problem is Im not sure if hell call with that hand or not. If this is a 10-man SnG and top 3 pay. he probably mucks this. Otherwise he might callsIf you are on the bubble and he calls with AK anyway, nh

[crimethink_ 0]

Push preflop (the first time it gets to you). No matter what they're calling you with, pushing will show a profit here.

[Actuary 3]

Push preflop (the first time it gets to you). No matter what they're calling you with, pushing will show a profit here.

Why put so much at risk?

[unkysimba 0]

yea i really dont like pushing preflop here, as the shortest stack was utg and has already folded, so you would only be bullying people that would only call you with hands that are beating you. definitely not the line to take on this one, putting way too much at risk

[crimethink_ 0]

Why put so much at risk?

Neither of your opponents has more than 10xbb.

yea i really dont like pushing preflop here, as the shortest stack was utg and has already folded, so you would only be bullying people that would only call you with hands that are beating you. definitely not the line to take on this one, putting way too much at risk

There may be a better way to play it, though I doubt it, but pushing is definitely profitable.

[timwakefield 68]

Good post Actuary, this is a difficult hand. Maybe later I'll think of a good way to play it

[Actuary 3]

Neither of your opponents has more than 10xbb.

SB's stack compared to mine is significant.Yeah, I have good fold equity; but why risk so much when we are 1 person from the money?when you say profitable, do you mean Chipwise, or Touney$$wise?

[crimethink_ 0]

SB's stack compared to mine is significant.Yeah, I have ghood fodl equity; but why risk so much when we are 1 person from the money?when you say profitable, do you mean Chipwise, or Touney$$wise?

Yes, I mean +$EV, not +cEV. And the reason you should risk so much is because it's profitable, and I don't see how making a smaller raise is more so.Edit: And I should add that even if you knew you had no fold equity, that both the SB and the BB would call you with any 2 cards, a push would still be profitable.

[TheCinciKid 0]

Haven't read replies....The correct action is....Villain min-re-raises, Hero folds pre-flop. Based solely on stack sizes and your description of the villain.

[Actuary 3]

Yes, I mean +$EV, not +cEV. And the reason you should risk so much is because it's profitable, and I don't see how making a smaller raise is more so. Edit: And I should add that even if you knew you had no fold equity, that both the SB and the BB would call you with any 2 cards, a push would still be profitable.

so we can get away from the hand,Are you basing this soley on the fact ( I assume, it is) thet we are ahead of two random hands?

[crimethink_ 0]

so we can get away from the hand,Are you basing this soley on the fact ( I assume, it is) thet we are ahead of two random hands?

I'm basing this (if by this you mean why I am saying that a push is +$EV) on the fact that, if you plug the numbers into SNGPT, there are literally no ranges you could put SB and BB on that would make the push -$EV. It's an unexploitable push. And why would you want to get away from a +$EV situation?

[Actuary 3]

I'm basing this (if by this you mean why I am saying that a push is +$EV) on the fact that, if you plug the numbers into SNGPT....

I should get that tool and play aroundI don't trust the results I see coming out of there and posted here.As far as real life applicabilty.but, at least I know where you are coming from.thanks

[Fnava621 0]

i think you need to take a stab at the pot on the flop i dont like just leaving ur children out their (3/4)... but then ur probably going to ask what do you do if he checkraises you...then id probably fold loosing more chips but u should probably fold if ur going to be afraid to bet

[crimethink_ 0]

I should get that tool and play aroundI don't trust the results I see coming out of there and posted here.As far as real life applicabilty.but, at least I know where you are coming from.thanks

Well, you have to realize that it's just math. Saying that the results aren't applicable in real life would be akin to saying that 1+1 doesn't always equal 2 in real life. The math SNGPT uses can actually be done by hand, and this post explains how to do it.

[iggymcfly 0]

Yeah, you definitely need to push PF here. Especially against a loose player, (as you described the 2nd stack here), putting his whole stack in jeopardy will register a lot better with more FE than a typical raise. And since chip-wise, you should probably be calling a push anyway, you really need to just take advantage of your ability to bully as the big stack.

[krup24 0]

Yeah, you definitely need to push PF here. Especially against a loose player, (as you described the 2nd stack here), putting his whole stack in jeopardy will register a lot better with more FE than a typical raise. And since chip-wise, you should probably be calling a push anyway, you really need to just take advantage of your ability to bully as the big stack.

You really don't wanna bully the only guy that can really hurt ur stack when a hand as simple as A9 has us dominated as does 88 or >. Honeslty I play it exactly like Actuary did or I fold to the min raise pf, its 50/50 for me. I definitely don't wanna go from 1st to 4th in chips here.

[crimethink_ 0]

You really don't wanna bully the only guy that can really hurt ur stack when a hand as simple as A9 has us dominated as does 88 or >.

You do want to do that, because it's profitable. Even if you flipped your cards over and let your opponents play perfectly, pushing would show a profit here.

[Actuary 3]

Well, you have to realize that it's just math. Saying that the results aren't applicable in real life would be akin to saying that 1+1 doesn't always equal 2 in real life.

no.1+1 is defined as 2.those calculators assume your prize pool percentage is defined by your stack.Although correlated, it's not defined as clearly as 1+1.What goes into the calculations that accounts for "I play better than they do and thus don't need to gamble here" ? Or "I've seen the others mix it up playing big pots, often, surely, they will knock each other out soon" ?that being said, I don't hate the push, and appreciate the input.It's just not my style, as the chip leader.I'd do it as a shrter stack here.

[crimethink_ 0]

no.1+1 is defined as 2.those calculators assume your prize pool percentage is defined by your stack.Although correlated, it's not defined as clearly as 1+1.What goes into the calculations that accounts for "I play better than they do and thus don't need to gamble here" ? Or "I've seen the others mix it up playing big pots, often, surely, they will knock each other out soon" ?that being said, I don't hate the push, and appreciate the input.It's just not my style, as the chip leader.I'd do it as a shrter stack here.

If you consider yourself the best player at the table, then clearly your equity is higher than your stack size would indicate on its own. An easy way to account for this is simply to give yourself more chips in the calculations, thereby artificially increasing your equity. I remember a thread on this a while back at 2+2, I can try to dig it up for you if you want me to. Anyway, having more equity in the tournament actually makes pushing in this spot an even better play.

[Actuary 3]

in one short tourney, I would not say "i know I'm the best"; but generally, would be in the top 3 at most SnGs', naturally :Don my skepticsm...you seem to be mising the point.Play 500 SnG's, record your stack at varous stages once you are down to say 5 players.Test for correlation to the formulas.THe simple fact your stack changes so much lends doubt to the "1+1" analogyI have doubts.

[crimethink_ 0]

in one short tourney, I would not say "i know I'm the best"; but generally, would be in the top 3 at most SnGs', naturally on my skepticsm...you seem to be mising the point.Play 500 SnG's, record your stack at varous stages once you are down to say 5 players.Test for correlation to the formulas.THe simple fact your stack changes so much lends doubt to the "1+1" analogyI have doubts.

Not sure I follow...are you saying that you don't think that, in practice, the equities calculated using ICM actually correlate to the % of the prize pool the player can expect to take down in the long run? If that is what you're saying, well, yes, in practice, that is true because the ICM calculations assume all players are of equal skill. But that doesn't affect their usefulness in situations like this, where you are simply calculating the relative change in equity. I'm really not the best person to address your skepticisms on this, though, as I don't have the greatest understanding of the math behind it , so I would suggest that you post some in the STT forum on 2+2 if you have more questions/skepticisms on this. The guy who programmed SNGPT posts there under the name eastbay, and he'd really be the best person to answer your questions, though I haven't seen him post much recently.Also, 500 SNGs wouldn't be nearly enough

[krup24 0]

You do want to do that, because it's profitable. Even if you flipped your cards over and let your opponents play perfectly, pushing would show a profit here.

so putting ur money in as an 80-20 dog is profitable in the long run???so u flip ur cards and villian has AJ or AQ or 99 what happens then?

[crimethink_ 0]

so putting ur money in as an 80-20 dog is profitable in the long run???

No, obviously putting your money in as an 80-20 dog is not profitable in the long run. Moving all-in in this situation is, however.

so u flip ur cards and villian has AJ or AQ or 99 what happens then?

The point is that, even if the blinds knew exactly what hands to call you with, they wouldn't get those hands often enough to prevent this push from being profitable.