Flopped The Nuts And Folded.

[stealfromblind 0]

"22 is a dog to AKs preflop turd...just thought you might want to know."

Is that right? Click here

"also even if its AKo, taking coin flips p/f in a roughly 50/50 situation in a tourney is -ev."

Is that right? Click here

why did you even put those links up? my statement was correct and if YOU bothered to click the links my guess is you wouldn't have made this post.

[Cue 0]

You're not heads up, so that argument is unfounded. If it's heads up and you are 60% to win, do you fold?

forget scenerio then. All you know is that if you call and push you are 60% to lose. Do you call?Does your answer really change if I simply change that scenerio to 1, 2 or 3 players??

[turd ferguson 1]

ahhh my bad, so your focus is on winning internet arguement 12 yr old stylee AND wining money

If by '12 year old style' you mean 'providing you with facts that support my argument' then, yes.

[Scott3705 0]

Second, if we assume the reads to be accurate, even if cash gane ev is a reasonable approximation, how can anyone say this is the worst fold ever? OP's edge is only a few percent. Why should he put his whole stack on the line with such a small edge, and very little invested? Bad fold? Yeah, probably. Worst ever? Gimme a break. This is pretty close to the 3-handed equivalent of flipping coins.

Regardless of whether or not pot odds dictate a call. Aka argument of callign AK vs. 22... blah blah blah... Bolded part is key. The edge we're calculating is assuming 100% perfect read. His read will be wrong here. Sometimes both will have sets. Some times both will be on a flush draw. Sometimes' some ones got a pair and a str8 draw. Sometimes some will even have an overpair here. OP foudn the absolute worse case scenario for his hand in his read which makes a call correct, but marginally correct. As we adjust the 100% accurate read to 95% correct or 85% correct, we can see why his fold is so bad. no one makes stone cold perfect reads ever. especially on boards like this where a variety of hands will play the same way. The imperfect read is what makes this fold bad.

[turd ferguson 1]

why did you even put those links up? my statement was correct and if YOU bothered to click the links my guess is you wouldn't have made this post.

The first link messed up, but it was showing AsKs vs. 2s2c with the pocket twos being a slight favorite. The second link was perfect. Did you read the article?

[stealfromblind 0]

oh my please read this article and get your ego out of herehttp://cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archi...5093&m_id=65576

again someone posting a link thats taken completely out of context. his article is talking about AKs vs QQ. in this hand the QQ is 53.8% to win, you don't have to worry about the board pairing twice, etc. your gaining an entire % pt. when you use the QQ comparison. do the math and get back to me. and please don't post another "oh please" bullshit link.-steal

[....Ian.... 0]

If by '12 year old style' you mean 'providing you with facts that support my argument' then, yes.

we just have a difference of opinion, and you're an ***. respond if you are a tool.

[zimmer4141 0]

forget scenerio then. All you know is that if you call and push you are 60% to lose. Do you call?Does your answer really change if I simply change that scenerio to 1, 2 or 3 players??

Let me ask you one question.Do you understand pot odds at all?

[Cue 0]

I think you should call the floor on the guy with JJ suited

heh - good catch.Typing to fast. Responding to too many posts.

[stealfromblind 0]

The first link messed up, but it was showing AsKs vs. 2s2c with the pocket twos being a slight favorite. The second link was perfect. Did you read the article?

at first i was wondering how you were comming up with the 2's having an edge, but at second glance i realize you used the 2s in your calculations. when i was using AKs and neither 2 was of that suit. but still if you call with 22 having the 2s your still only talking about a 0.17% advantage. i just don't see the point of risking your entire stack in such a situation.

[turd ferguson 1]

again someone posting a link thats taken completely out of context. his article is talking about AKs vs QQ. in this hand the QQ is 53.8% to win, you don't have to worry about the board pairing twice, etc. your gaining an entire % pt. when you use the QQ comparison. do the math and get back to me. and please don't post another "oh please" bulls<a href="http://www.gooogle.com" target="_blank"></a>hit link.-steal

While you have a slightly larger edge with the queens the basic principle is the same. The point is that it isn't -EV to take coinflips early on even if you're clearly better than your opponnents.

at first i was wondering how you were comming up with the 2's having an edge, but at second glance i realize you used the 2s in your calculations. when i was using AKs and neither 2 was of that suit.

Right, but the difference is less than 1/2 of a percent so we're basically arguing semantics anyway.

[Cue 0]

Regardless of whether or not pot odds dictate a call. Aka argument of callign AK vs. 22... blah blah blah... Bolded part is key. The edge we're calculating is assuming 100% perfect read. His read will be wrong here. Sometimes both will have sets. Some times both will be on a flush draw. Sometimes' some ones got a pair and a str8 draw. Sometimes some will even have an overpair here. OP foudn the absolute worse case scenario for his hand in his read which makes a call correct, but marginally correct. As we adjust the 100% accurate read to 95% correct or 85% correct, we can see why his fold is so bad. no one makes stone cold perfect reads ever. especially on boards like this where a variety of hands will play the same way. The imperfect read is what makes this fold bad.

I acknowledged my reads can always be wrong and why in this case my gut was telling me it wasn't. But that being said I still recognize my gut could be wrong. So then I considered the ramifications of of being wrong in either scenerio. One had me busted out (making the call) and the other had me still in the game and in good position for the final table.I am not calling for a blanket fold here. I guess the question is more of... 'can you ever trust your read that much when in a situation where your down side is absolute (no chance to recover) and your upside only means improved position.'

[bobbywithani 0]

forget scenerio then. All you know is that if you call and push you are 60% to lose. Do you call?Does your answer really change if I simply change that scenerio to 1, 2 or 3 players??

Yes it does, vs. 1 player all-in, it depends on how much dead money is in the pot. 2 players, easy to put my money in as a 40% favorite. Against 3 players, you would hae to put a gun to my head to get me to fold in a situation like that.

[stealfromblind 0]

While you have a slightly larger edge with the queens the basic principle is the same. The point is that it isn't -EV to take coinflips early on even if you're clearly better than your opponnents. Right, but the difference is less than 1/2 of a percent so we're basically arguing semantics anyway.

while i respect your opinion i definately disagree with you on this call. i can even see how this play would help your image and prevent people from running over you in later rounds with the huge blinds. i just think that i have a pretty big edge over 'average joe' poker player and that regardless of being card dead or not i will find a better spot. also i think that anyone who exposed there cards on accident or on purpose isn't really a threat and thus doesn't warrant your risk of being eliminated.

[Cue 0]

Let me ask you one question.Do you understand pot odds at all?

Yes. In a cash game I never lay this down because of pot odds. In a tournament where my downside is absolute (I am out) and my upside is only improved position (and I am already set to hit the money as long as I don't gamble all my chips on a coin flip) and where I put myself at 60% to lose then I do not call for pot odds.

[Scott3705 0]

I acknowledged my reads can always be wrong and why in this case my gut was telling me it wasn't. But that being said I still recognize my gut could be wrong. So then I considered the ramifications of of being wrong in either scenerio. One had me busted out (making the call) and the other had me still in the game and in good position for the final table.I am not calling for a blanket fold here. I guess the question is more of... 'can you ever trust your read that much when in a situation where your down side is absolute (no chance to recover) and your upside only means improved position.'

You are twisting it around to fit your fold. Your downside was still a positive EV spot that could have given you a huge chip lead over the field. Your potential upside is an even more +EV situation where you're even more a lock to get a huge stack here. You phrased your reponse like it was a doomsday scenario... aka, I have 22, maybe i'm against AK, but it might be AA. It's not like that. If you're really going to debate this. Don't start twisting words to try to prove your point. Don't paint the two sides of this coin like 1. maybe i triple up 2. I'm crushed.

[zimmer4141 0]

My main issue with this fold is that even if your read is dead on perfect, that they have a flush draw and a set, and that is the worst possible situation you could possibly be in (ignoring the freak possibility of someone having 86 of spades) you are still 39% to win this pot.I also refuse to believe that the players were so horrible that you were almost guaranteed to cash with 20 left and 6 cashing. Even if they were that bad, the increasing blinds would likely eat at your stack, and you would have less room to outplay them. Tournaments don't last forever. If they did, the best players would win much more often. Instead, you have to pick your spots to gamble, and I think it is asinine not to pick this spot.

[Cue 0]

While you have a slightly larger edge with the queens the basic principle is the same. The point is that it isn't -EV to take coinflips early on even if you're clearly better than your opponnents.

And I simply don't get that.If Todd Brunson is heads up against a guy who learned how to play poker today and both are staked with X dollars I cannot see how it is not -EV for him to go into a coin flip against this guy even if he is the marginal favorite.Given time and enough shuffles Todd is almost 100% to beat this guy. WHy would he take the 50+1%??

[turd ferguson 1]

while i respect your opinion i definately disagree with you on this call. i can even see how this play would help your image and prevent people from running over you in later rounds with the huge blinds. i just think that i have a pretty big edge over 'average joe' poker player and that regardless of being card dead or not i will find a better spot. also i think that anyone who exposed there cards on accident or on purpose isn't really a threat and thus doesn't warrant your risk of being eliminated.

You're missing the point. The edge you gain from having a big stack is greater than the edge you have over the average joe.

[76clubs 0]

Ah, the elusive fold/call strategy. Well played, TP/MM.

Teepee Mike Matusow?to the OP:you are whats wrong with generalthat is all

[turd ferguson 1]

And I simply don't get that.If Todd Brunson is heads up against a guy who learned how to play poker today and both are staked with X dollars I cannot see how it is not -EV for him to go into a coin flip against this guy even if he is the marginal favorite.Given time and enough shuffles Todd is almost 100% to beat this guy. WHy would he take the 50+1%??

Because in this scenario he isn't playing heads up. He has to win the whole tourney.

[zimmer4141 0]

And I simply don't get that.If Todd Brunson is heads up against a guy who learned how to play poker today and both are staked with X dollars I cannot see how it is not -EV for him to go into a coin flip against this guy even if he is the marginal favorite.Given time and enough shuffles Todd is almost 100% to beat this guy. WHy would he take the 50+1%??

Just because a decision is not the best possible decision does not make it a -EV decision.

[Matt_Damon 0]

Matt Damon

[turd ferguson 1]

Matt Damon

You're so wise.

[Cue 0]

You are twisting it around to fit your fold. Your downside was still a positive EV spot that could have given you a huge chip lead over the field. Your potential upside is an even more +EV situation where you're even more a lock to get a huge stack here. You phrased your reponse like it was a doomsday scenario... aka, I have 22, maybe i'm against AK, but it might be AA. It's not like that. If you're really going to debate this. Don't start twisting words to try to prove your point. Don't paint the two sides of this coin like 1. maybe i triple up 2. I'm crushed.

the only one twisting the situation is you. You are saying the two scenerios I faced were both win win.I painted the correct scenerios. My read is either right or wrong. If it is right there are two outcomes. they catch or they dont. If they don't catch my read was right but my non call wrong as I would have got paid. If they do catch then my read was right and non-call was good as it kept me in the game.If my read is wrong then there are still two outcomes. They either catch or they don't. But the odds are much greater in my favour and I gave up a great chance to make a huge pot.I have not misrepresented the scenerio at all. That is you.