monsters under bed? (1/2)

[jimmybaker04 0]

Okay...so I decided to throw this into PokerStove...I assigned him this range: AA, KK, AKs, AKo, AdQd, AdJdAn interesting equity pops out. He's 58.25% to win. The pot is laying me 1.24 to 1. I need to be 44.6% to win to make a call correct, and I don't have that.Is that range too tight? I absolutely have to add in QQ or other permutations of AQ in order for a call to be correct. If I put QQ in his range, I still have to deal with those random times when AA/KK/88 pop up behind me in my other opponents' hands.I still agree with you guys that I should make this call, but I think it's a whole lot closer than the immediate "You have top two. Put all your money in."

Agreed.

[ICrushHomeGames 0]

A Q , A J , A T , and K Q are all certainly possibilities. So is A K . But if he thinks you're a tight player, he very well may have min-raised with 88 pre-flop as a feeler (or even for value if he reads you as weak). Perhaps he correctly puts you on a big ace and tries to force a call because he knows that you can't laydown top 2 (and possibly not A Q ) here.Villain has 88 or AK. Maybe, maybe, a nut diamond draw. I'm fairly sure this is 88. Lay this down and you're an idiot.

I don't quite understand this. You're pretty sure he's got a set, but you think laying down AK would be idiotic?

That's exactly what I'm saying. You have to pay this off in a cash game unless you caught a glimpse of his hole cards. :roll:

[....Ian.... 0]

soooooo.... results? muck or call?

[caribstv 0]

Bodog 1/2 NLHE (9-handed)Cobalt $200MP2 $150CO $300BB $250Cobalt is UTG w/ A K . I've played with BB before, and he likes to initially min-raise pre-flop, but I've never seen him min-raise a raiser from the blinds. He also doesn't usually get out of line.Pre-flop:Cobalt raises $8Flop ($57): A K 8 (4 players)BB goes all-in for $236To be honest, his min-raise here threw me so much that I actually wanted to fold pre-flop.

Only hand he has here to has you beat is 8.8 thats about 15%you have top two pair... I wouldn't be able to lay that down!Pay the man if you're beat!My take is he's on a draw! maybe flush a big hand would have try to milk it and maybe raise on the turnOH yes.. there's a very small possibity he has the same hand you do he could have put u on a weak ACE and Flopped A 8 (top and bottom)for me thats the kind of hand i'm ready to walk to the ATM to reload

[CobaltBlue 662]

soooooo.... results? muck or call?

Mucked it. First time I can recall in 400k hands laying down top two on a non-flush, non-straight flop.

[caribstv 0]

Okay...so I decided to throw this into PokerStove...I assigned him this range: AA, KK, AKs, AKo, AdQd, AdJdAn interesting equity pops out. He's 58.25% to win. The pot is laying me 1.24 to 1. I need to be 44.6% to win to make a call correct, and I don't have that.Is that range too tight? I absolutely have to add in QQ or other permutations of AQ in order for a call to be correct. If I put QQ in his range, I still have to deal with those random times when AA/KK/88 pop up behind me in my other opponents' hands.I still agree with you guys that I should make this call, but I think it's a whole lot closer than the immediate "You have top two. Put all your money in."

Min raise should have been double the raise?? $16 and not $14Raise from the big blind is good percent play.. he could have had QJ suited!! with a straight and Flush draws even if you called he still had a very good chance on catching the draw

[CobaltBlue 662]

The min-raise numbers are odds sometimes. Basically, since I raised $6 to $8, anyone that wants to make the smallest possible raise can re-raise $6 more...thus to $14.

[lew189 0]

I put this guy on AA. It's a horrendous play on the flop by him, but the min raise from someone you haven't seen min raise before would set off all sorts of alarm bells...By the way, I lost twice w./KK (once allin preflop against AA, which I regret and the other allin after a Q high flop where the villain had AQ. River A!) and once w./QQ last night within about 20 minutes, so maybe my analysis is tainted by post traumatic stress syndrome and I'm just seeing the worst case scenario...

[lew189 0]

I put this guy on AA. It's a horrendous play on the flop by him, but the min raise from someone you haven't seen min raise before would set off all sorts of alarm bells...By the way, I lost twice w./KK (once allin preflop against AA, which I regret and the other allin after a Q high flop where the villain had AQ. River A!) and once w./QQ last night within about 20 minutes, so maybe my analysis is tainted by post traumatic stress syndrome and I'm just seeing the worst case scenario...

By the way, yes I am whining and I do know that there's a bad beat forum. My apologies in advance!!

[Ninjaballz 0]

Okay...so I decided to throw this into PokerStove...I assigned him this range: AA, KK, AKs, AKo, AdQd, AdJdAn interesting equity pops out. He's 58.25% to win. The pot is laying me 1.24 to 1. I need to be 44.6% to win to make a call correct, and I don't have that.Is that range too tight? I absolutely have to add in QQ or other permutations of AQ in order for a call to be correct. If I put QQ in his range, I still have to deal with those random times when AA/KK/88 pop up behind me in my other opponents' hands.I still agree with you guys that I should make this call, but I think it's a whole lot closer than the immediate "You have top two. Put all your money in."

These are my thoughts, it may be much closer than it looks. Not having much cash in the pot I fold, i'll get my money in in a better spot. I'd feel pretty stupid getting my money in here if im behind. I actually see this line occasionally from tricky players who realize they are up against solid tags. Push with a monster hoping you can't lay down a big hand. Still a stupid line of betting. Right here I am putting my opponent on 88 or AQd.

[Abbaddabba 0]

Okay...so I decided to throw this into PokerStove...  I assigned him this range: AA, KK, AKs, AKo, AdQd, AdJd  An interesting equity pops out. He's 58.25% to win. The pot is laying me 1.24 to 1. I need to be 44.6% to win to make a call correct, and I don't have that.  

There is one combination of AA and one combination of KK left on the deck.There are 8 combinations of AQ and 4 of AK alone.And i dont think that the preflop or flop action would rule out either of thsoe. I think that AK is by far the most likely, given the number of combinations in the deck coupled with how probable it is that he played it the way that he did.The type of person who would limp/min reraise AA doesnt strike me as the type of person who would massively overbet the pot with a set on the flop.

These are my thoughts, it may be much closer than it looks. Not having much cash in the pot I fold, i'll get my money in in a better spot. I'd feel pretty stupid getting my money in here if im behind. I actually see this line occasionally from tricky players who realize they are up against solid tags.

There's no upside to the move. Any hand that a tag wlil call the retarded bet with will be a hand that they'll be getting their money in regardless of how much you raise. If it was a minraise, cobalt would probably go over the top here.