donk calling flop with overs vs. 10-10

[nomad_monad 0]

Ok, so this hand has been kind of bothering me since it happened. I think I did pretty much all I could do, but maybe someone else has other ideas.1-2 NL @ the Mirage (last weekend)10 handed ring gamePREFLOP1 MP limperButton raises to $15 (7x BB, but this seemed to be a standard PF raise at this table)Hero calls from SB with 10-10BB foldsMP limper foldsHero stack remaining: $170Button stack remaining: $140FLOP9 - 5 - 3 rainbow [pot $35]Hero checksButton bets $20 [pot now $55]Hero raises to $60[pot now $115]Button mulls it over for a while, then calls the extra $40 [pot now $155]TURN:JhMy thinking:I have a pretty good read on this guy. He isn't a calling station, but he will take cards off without proper odds or even high implied odds. Decently tight PF. Postflop, plays a bit passively if not in the lead. If in the lead, will definitely take shots at pots from position. Definitely continuation bets.So on the flop, when he bets out, I decide to test him here. I have an overpair but not a super strong one, and I'd like to take the pot down now to keep overcards from coming. Hence the raise.After he takes so long to call, I am almost positive I have the guy on two big cards.After the turn, there is now an overcard on the board. He could have a J in the hole, but he could also have a bunch of other two big card hands.Assuming my read is dead-on - villain having 2 big cards, and that he will most likely take a shot at the pot if I check the turn showing weakness, what would you do here?Will post results later.

[Scott3705 0]

If you bet, you can't fold and if you check he's going to take a shot at this pot most of the time with two over cards. If he's betting regardless of what he has and we have a range containing more hands that still remaind overcards then hands that caught the jack, then the best line is a C/r on the turn if we are 90% sure he's gonna bet.

[nomad_monad 0]

i see your point.if i check here again, if he checks behind, we've given him a free card, but it reveals a lot of info - we're pretty sure he's still missed his overs. then the river decision becomes pretty academic.if i check and he bets small, c/r him large.if i check and he bets big, it's probably a fold.right?instead of c/r, what do you think about leading out and pushing here? you're absolutely right that if i bet i can't fold, so it seems like if i bet, it has to be a push right now.

[Scott3705 0]

i see your point.if i check here again, if he checks behind, we've given him a free card, but it reveals a lot of info - we're pretty sure he's still missed his overs. then the river decision becomes pretty academic.if i check and he bets small, c/r him large.if i check and he bets big, it's probably a fold.right?instead of c/r, what do you think about leading out and pushing here? you're absolutely right that if i bet i can't fold, so it seems like if i bet, it has to be a push right now.

No, I think you missed my point. Let me clarify. If I'm 90% sure he's going to bet if I check to him, I'm not giving him a free card and thus not missing value on the turn as he will not be calling anything on the river. If I'm 95% sure my opponent has two overcards, then I don't fold to a large bet. I call. any bet here is likely to pot stick either one of you.I understand that you're trying to protect your hand. However, I believe my line maximizes value. We make him put more money in the pot while he's behind and therefore, we make him make a mistake. I want to get my chips in on the turn more than I want to push and watch him fold.

[nomad_monad 0]

ok, thanks for clarifying.i understand your point about not actually giving him a free card because i'm planning on c/r. i brought up the10% scenario where he checks behind because it seemed to me that was valid as well, since it reveals plenty of info for river play.what i am still kind of wondering about is your answer to when he makes a very large bet after i check. i'm 95% sure he has 2 big cards, but i am not quite that sure that one of them is not a J. so you are saying that you would call/push any large bet he makes even though he could have hit his J?sorry if i'm forcing you to become pedantic.

[Scott3705 0]

what i am still kind of wondering about is your answer to when he makes a very large bet after i check. i'm 95% sure he has 2 big cards, but i am not quite that sure that one of them is not a J. so you are saying that you would call/push any large bet he makes even though he could have hit his J?sorry if i'm forcing you to become pedantic.

Any bet he makes, have to call. He's got less than the pot left in his stack so no bet he makes can be a big bet. My logic being here that there are more hands composed of big over cards that will call this raise w/o the jack than there will be w/ the jack.

[jimmybaker04 0]

I agree. Our best move is to check raise here. If he holds two over to the board, more often than not by pure odds he did not hit and we are way ahead with one card to go. That being said the only way to get more of his money in the pot is to check and let him hang himself. If he has the jack so be it. We are potstuck.Regarding the rest of the hand we should have not given him such a desirable price to see the turn. We are giving him about 3-1 (calling 40 to win 115) money odds. We ought to have raised $60+, giving him less than 2-1. That may have solved our entire problem. We don't have enough chips to be making a feeler size raise here with a very vulnerable hand.

[nomad_monad 0]

what i did:J fell.i pushed him in. he thought for a while, and then he called.he flipped up QJo!!! river comes a blank.oh well, i guess that's poker.

[Scott3705 0]

what i did:J fell.i pushed him in. he thought for a while, and then he called.he flipped up QJo!!! river comes a blank.oh well, i guess that's poker.

I don't like pushing if we know he's going to bet. You assure yourself that you're only going to be called if you're beat. He'll call with a j or an overpair and will fold with AK.

[nomad_monad 0]

Regarding the rest of the hand we should have not given him such a desirable price to see the turn. We are giving him about 3-1 (calling 40 to win 115) money odds. We ought to have raised $60+, giving him less than 2-1. That may have solved our entire problem. We don't have enough chips to be making a feeler size raise here with a very vulnerable hand.

Giving 3-1 is a desirable price to see the turn when all you have is overcards?The odds of an overcard hitting on the turn are a shade less than 7-1. It seems like even with 3-1 it's a fairly big gamble, especially considering that in most cases, the better is going to shut down and not pay-off if a high overcard like an A or K comes. Plus when I am check-raising the *flop*, I am not sure if he just has overs. It is possible he has an overpair, in which case betting to make it 2-1 to see the turn seems like a big price to pay for what could turn out to be purely a informational raise, instead of a protection one (i.e. he calls or pushes, indicating an overpair).Or are you saying that 3-1 is a desirable enough price for the player I'm against?Thoughts?

[nomad_monad 0]

what i did:J fell.i pushed him in. he thought for a while, and then he called.he flipped up QJo!!! river comes a blank.oh well, i guess that's poker.

I don't like pushing if we know he's going to bet. You assure yourself that you're only going to be called if you're beat. He'll call with a j or an overpair and will fold with AK.

yeah, lesson learned.if i bet, the only hand that calls me is the hand that wins.if i check-call or check-raise, there is a chance that i catch him on an overcard bluff. only with the second option (cc/cr) do i stand a chance of winning if both of us remain in the pot after the turn.if i'm trying to move him off the pot because i think he might have the J, i might as well wait to c/r. if he doesn't have it, i'm probably going to win anyways.thanks for the thoughts scott. much appreciated.

[TeeSludge 0]

Just wondering about this hand...did you plan to fold on the flop if he pushed all in?Also, if you look at it from his perspective, if he puts you on a one pair hand like tens or eights he could call the $40 thinking that he has 6 live outs in the Q's and J's and 8 K's and A's that he can bluff on. So he calls getting 3-1 with his 14 "outs".Just trying to think about it from his perspective. I like the C/R the turn line though.

[jimmybaker04 0]

Regarding the rest of the hand we should have not given him such a desirable price to see the turn. We are giving him about 3-1 (calling 40 to win 115) money odds. We ought to have raised $60+, giving him less than 2-1. That may have solved our entire problem. We don't have enough chips to be making a feeler size raise here with a very vulnerable hand.

Giving 3-1 is a desirable price to see the turn when all you have is overcards?The odds of an overcard hitting on the turn are a shade less than 7-1. It seems like even with 3-1 it's a fairly big gamble, especially considering that in most cases, the better is going to shut down and not pay-off if a high overcard like an A or K comes. Plus when I am check-raising the *flop*, I am not sure if he just has overs. It is possible he has an overpair, in which case betting to make it 2-1 to see the turn seems like a big price to pay for what could turn out to be purely a informational raise, instead of a protection one (i.e. he calls or pushes, indicating an overpair).Or are you saying that 3-1 is a desirable enough price for the player I'm against?Thoughts?

If he knew you would push all-in when his over came, then 3-1 is a desirable price! But seriously, if he feels you may check the turn then he gets to have two shots at it for 3-1. Also as stated above he may be able to bluff at an Ace or King, which you admittedly would not have paid off, in other words his bluff would have likely induced you to fold.I understand your point about being unclear as to whether or not he has overs or an over pair. That is why in my first post I talked about you not having enough chips to pull a c/r on the flop as a feeler raise. If we wanted to do that we should have bet into him on the flop. If you are going to check raise you need to give him good reason to fold and not offer 3-1 to see the turn.In the end I think you understand why leading off all-in on the turn is terrible play. It is likely only called by a hand that dominates you. If he had held AK, AQ, KQ, the only way to get his money in the pot is to c/r.

[nomad_monad 0]

I understand your point about being unclear as to whether or not he has overs or an over pair.  That is why in my first post I talked about you not having enough chips to pull a c/r on the flop as a feeler raise.  If we wanted to do that we should have bet into him on the flop.  If you are going to check raise you need to give him good reason to fold and not offer 3-1 to see the turn.

Ok, assuming we lead into him on the flop with a 2/3-3/4 pot bet instead of C/R, how would you play the turn/flop for the following scenarios:1) just calls the flop bet2) raises the flop bet 2-3 times3) raises the flop bet far more

[jimmybaker04 0]

I understand your point about being unclear as to whether or not he has overs or an over pair. That is why in my first post I talked about you not having enough chips to pull a c/r on the flop as a feeler raise. If we wanted to do that we should have bet into him on the flop. If you are going to check raise you need to give him good reason to fold and not offer 3-1 to see the turn.

Ok, assuming we lead into him on the flop with a 2/3-3/4 pot bet instead of C/R, how would you play the turn/flop for the following scenarios:1) just calls the flop bet2) raises the flop bet 2-3 times3) raises the flop bet far more

A lot of this is read dependent but let's assume we bet $25 (in between 2/3 & 3/4 pot).1) c/f the turn (assuming it is not a 10), pre flop raiser "just calling" often signals extreme strength in a HU pot. He would have only had $15 committed, and would be offered only 5-2 on his money. Flop is low and rainbow, most likely we are behind. It is highly, and I mean HIGHLY unlikely that he would choose to "just call" her with two overs.2) + 3) this is really read based. Often a player that is a habitual continuation better is irritated by not being given his opportunity to do so. He may also feel that if we were really strong we would have c/r. He could see this as a feeler bet and want to pounce. I would be inclined to re-raise all-in or call an all-in given this flop, our hand, and our read.

[nomad_monad 0]

A lot of this is read dependent but let's assume we bet $25 (in between 2/3 & 3/4 pot).1) c/f the turn (assuming it is not a 10), pre flop raiser "just calling" often signals extreme strength in a HU pot. He would have only had $15 committed, and would be offered only 5-2 on his money. Flop is low and rainbow, most likely we are behind. It is highly, and I mean HIGHLY unlikely that he would choose to "just call" her with two overs.2) + 3) this is really read based. Often a player that is a habitual continuation better is irritated by not being given his opportunity to do so. He may also feel that if we were really strong we would have c/r. He could see this as a feeler bet and want to pounce. I would be inclined to re-raise all-in or call an all-in given this flop, our hand, and our read.

Thanks, I like your thinking, esp. #2 and #3.#1 is what I would normally do in this situation. However, I had seen this guy twice in the last hour just call near pot-sized flop bets with overcards. I had also witnessed him do the same with stronger holdings. So while in general I regard flat flop calls with great suspicion and give credit for a hand, I was concerned here that if he flat called I wouldn't really be getting the kind of information I would normally attribute this action to.In this case, would you still lead out here? Or does this sway the decision more towards a c/r (except a stronger one than I did)? Am I thinking too much about gaining information here, instead of just risking a run-in with an overpair and trying to win right there on the flop?

[GABMAD 0]

what i did:J fell.i pushed him in. he thought for a while, and then he called.he flipped up QJo!!! river comes a blank.oh well, i guess that's poker.

I don't like pushing if we know he's going to bet. You assure yourself that you're only going to be called if you're beat. He'll call with a j or an overpair and will fold with AK.

agreed

[Garn 0]

i push here. if he called witha J in his hand good luck on the river. but a hand like AK something similar would probably be pushed off if you move all in. My thought process if I were the villian would be to go all in if you checked the jack to me no matter what I had. Just my thoughts

[Scott3705 0]

i push here. if he called witha J in his hand good luck on the river.  but a hand like AK something similar would probably be pushed off if you move all in.  My thought process if I were the villian would be to go all in if you checked the jack to me no matter what I had.  Just my thoughts

Yes, but if you are resolved to get to showdown, by checking, you induce a bluff and then can win the hand. By pushing you will not get called by ak only by the j

[jimmybaker04 0]

i push here. if he called witha J in his hand good luck on the river.  but a hand like AK something similar would probably be pushed off if you move all in.  My thought process if I were the villian would be to go all in if you checked the jack to me no matter what I had.  Just my thoughts

This is exactly why NOT to push. Scott got it right. Push and we only get called if we are behind. We must check this turn to gain any added value of our hand. The likelihood of him checking behind us is not too high. By calling our flop raise this villain is clearly looking for ways to win the hand other than just hitting one of his two overs. If he missed this turn, then he may feel inclined to make a play for the pot.

[jimmybaker04 0]

Thanks, I like your thinking, esp. #2 and #3.#1 is what I would normally do in this situation.  However, I had seen this guy twice in the last hour  just call near pot-sized flop bets with overcards.  I had also witnessed him do the same with stronger holdings.  So while in general I regard flat flop calls with great suspicion and give credit for a hand, I was concerned here that if he flat called I wouldn't really be getting the kind of information I would normally attribute this action to.In this case, would you still lead out here?  Or does this sway the decision more towards a c/r (except a stronger one than I did)?  Am I thinking too much about gaining information here, instead of just risking a run-in with an overpair and trying to win right there on the flop?

This is definitely a tough decision. I think when dealing with a poor player (as he as clearly displayed he is) it is at least as important, if not more important, to play the odds of your hand versus your read on him.I don't have a strong opinion one way or the other here. The fact that he would be willing to make a call on a lead out with two overs is really not a case for check raising. After all, we are a pretty strong favorite and don't mind his money in the pot.I like the c/r. But like you said, it has to be bigger. If we are check raising, the goal has to be to pick up the pot right there. If we make a large check raise and he goes over the top, I think we have gained enough info to dump.

[nomad_monad 0]

i push here. if he called witha J in his hand good luck on the river. but a hand like AK something similar would probably be pushed off if you move all in. My thought process if I were the villian would be to go all in if you checked the jack to me no matter what I had. Just my thoughts

This is exactly why NOT to push. Scott got it right. Push and we only get called if we are behind. We must check this turn to gain any added value of our hand. The likelihood of him checking behind us is not too high. By calling our flop raise this villain is clearly looking for ways to win the hand other than just hitting one of his two overs. If he missed this turn, then he may feel inclined to make a play for the pot.

Agreed. The reason I pushed (mistake) was an effort to move him off his J if he hit it, not to make him call with an AK or some other overs that didn't include a J.In retrospect, I realize this was a mistake because c/r here on the turn maximizes value. Also, with the way that this fellow was playing (and actually played), pushing here is not likely to move him off his hand if he's hit his J, even if it's one that's as susceptible to domination as his was.