stock market thread

[Yoda 1]

Nope, I don't think im going anywhere with Garmin. I think you are relying too much on charts.It's been on a steady up trend leading into earnings, which they BLEW AWAY 2 days ago. That caused it to go up 8, up 4, and up again today in a hhhorrible market. This stock is on it's way to 120.I definitely saved myself some money with PCU - I think it will trend down until the strike is settled.

[erac22 0]

yeah, I do agree that their fundamentals are awesome. Revenue and Earnings growth both over 50% is nuts, no debt, great ROA, ROE, and profit/operating margins, it even pays a nice little dividend which is pretty cool for a growth stock. There are a decent amount of shorts too which might keep squeezing it up. i just get weary when stocks run so high so fast, and I'm a nit so I might take some profits, obv not close out the position though.

[Yoda 1]

yeah, I do agree that their fundamentals are awesome. Revenue and Earnings growth both over 50% is nuts, no debt, great ROA, ROE, and profit/operating margins, it even pays a nice little dividend which is pretty cool for a growth stock. There are a decent amount of shorts too which might keep squeezing it up. i just get weary when stocks run so high so fast, and I'm a nit so I might take some profits, obv not close out the position though.

If you are saying it is likely that the stock will stall out in the short term and maybe dip back into the low 90's, I might agree with you. It has had quite a run up and might dip. But I would personally view that as just another buying opportunity.When I was following this stock on it's way up from the 50's into the 60's I was saying it has ran up too much and I waited for a dip. It never dipped, so I bought in the high 60's. Then I told Symbolic about it and at 70 he said he would wait for a dip. It quickly moved to 80. This stock just hasn't been dipping :)Edit: Oh and if you end up being right about Jones going to 8, I will personally buy 300 more shares. But lets just hope it settles here!

[WrongWay 0]

How's the credit market? S&P 1540? Tech is the next bubble now? Everything old is new again?Think I'll sit out this roller coaster, thanks. Treasuries doing okay for me for now. Not sexy, but not changing 2% in 20 minutes. All this volitility is the big boys looking to make money to cover their credit crunch issues. They are looking for bag holders, and I choose to not be one. Commercial and retail are next... at least for PHX. WAY too much construction going on there too.If I heard correctly, 25% of GDP is construction related? There was also $1 trillion a year in real estate transactions, with the real estate industry taking 10% of that. With sales nw 50% of peak and prices falling, there is another half billion out of the hands of the consumers.We've lived on debt. Now we have to pay.It is actually prigressing faster than I expected. ABX-AAA at 90 cents? BBB under 40, pushing 35 cents on par?Anyone taking bets on Tuesday? My guess is the Fed says they're watching credit marekts and think it is a normal repricing of risk. Contained, nothing to see here, move along. They say they remain vigilent on inflation with the strong employment and wage growth environment. I don't think they want to kill the dollar or reignight buyout binge, so won't even hint of a lowering of interest rates. That will actually whack my treasuries. Oh well. It will whack stocks even harder. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict next week will be another down week for the S&P.Who has a house in CA or FL or other place where you need a jumbo to qualify? Jumbo loans up 1+% in a week??? Repricing risk indeed. FL took down sub-prime, and CA is going to take down everything else.POP, CRASH!

[Yoda 1]

Damn that Souther Copper sell is making me feel very good about myself. The articles were quietly saying "strike continues" with no new updates and I just had a feeling it had a big pull back coming until this is settled. Now it's gotten hammered and is down over $8 today.Sold at $106Currently sitting at $93*PHEW*Now we need Jones to be at a bottom and resume upwards. I will reserve some cash to buy more if it slides or consolidates at this level.

[Yoda 1]

Well Jones didn't listen I do prefer to buy too soon than sell too late. But it's a loss I didn't expect. I will wait for it to level off before adding to my position.I successfully day traded twice today in Standard Pacific (SPF). It sold off like 30% on no news - it eventually came out that the sell off was due to rumors/concerns about their inability to pay their debt off. However an analyst reiterated his overweight rating and pointed out they have plenty of assets to pay off debt.I purchased at $9.00 / Sold at $9.70 when I got stopped out on a dip.Then I saw continued strength and purchased at 9.90 - sold at 10.60. Takes some of the sting out of Jones at least. Fed meeting tomorrow going to bring us on a wild ride.

[WrongWay 0]

Today's rally can be attributed to one thing. Rumors of the easing of the limitations on Fannie and Freddie. The markets are HUNGRY to find SOME way to dump this mortgage mess onto the taxpayers. Don't let it happen. We don't need $2+ trillion in doomed mortgages being dumped onto the taxpayers. Make the ash-wholes that made the idiot loans, eat their own dung.

[aucu 3]

Bought more SQI.V yesterday, at it's 52 week low. It's now my second largest position.

[Yoda 1]

Today is a gorgeous day, my gains are out of control. Look at Jones Soda flyyyyyyyy! I am glad it stopped short of sub $10 - of course I wished it was bottomed at 12, but that's ok. The speculators won't let Jones fall too far.Garmin continues it's streak topping $105/share.Precision Castparts on fire.Southern Copper surprisingly making up all of it's losses bouncing back to $106 already (but strike(s) still looming). American Capital (ACAS) has been on strong rush as well this week.

[WrongWay 0]

The stock market flys while the underlying economy continues to slow. Credit crunch continues. Housing bubble burst accelerates. Crazy swings in the last half hour get more and more rediculus.Me thinks the big boys are looking to make hay in the stock market to feed the bond fire out back. I choose not to be a bag holder. I'm sitting this whack, insane volitility out thanks.

[erac22 0]

Today is going to start very ugly. Credit woe's spreading to Europe, weak retail sales, and my guess is we'll continue the trend of buying early in the week, dumping everything to take whatever profits investors can find into the weekend.

[Yoda 1]

Today is going to start very ugly. Credit woe's spreading to Europe, weak retail sales, and my guess is we'll continue the trend of buying early in the week, dumping everything to take whatever profits investors can find into the weekend.

I frieken LOVE panic sells.Check this out 08/09/2007 09:42:32 Bought 200 BZH @ 14.057 -2,821.39 It's 9:53 and BZH is at 15.60These crazy markets are really a good time for 'trading' - and I don't consider myself an experience trader. But sometimes it's just easy.

[WrongWay 0]

Beazer is going to be bankrupt within 2 years.This market may be good for speculation, but for long-term investment it is a disaster. Remember all that profit growth the international companies had the last couple quarters as the dollar plunged? Well, as "wrongalways" predicted, the credit crunch is spreading to Europe and that will bring back the dollar in relation... not on dollar strength but on pound and euro weakness. Bye bye profits.Stocks look like a good buy based on P/E, but those Es are temporary based on inflated exchange rates.Meanwhile, just like "wrongalways" predicted, retail sales continue to weaken as the strapped consumers that are finding it harder to tap the house ATM are slowing spending.Stocks may be up and down as the big boys look for bag holders among the general public that aren't in on the market manip info, but there is no up and down in the underlying economy. It is all down in the real world.

[WrongWay 0]

I frieken LOVE panic sells.Check this out 08/09/2007 09:42:32 Bought 200 BZH @ 14.057 -2,821.39 It's 9:53 and BZH is at 15.60These crazy markets are really a good time for 'trading' - and I don't consider myself an experience trader. But sometimes it's just easy.

10 minutes later, and it is now at 13.94.May as well go to Vegas and throw your money on the roulette table.

[Yoda 1]

Stopped out at 16.50. Too easy.I like me a quick 5 hundo to start off my morning.

[Yoda 1]

zomg it just went to 18. Damn stop limit orders! Oh well, I missed out on "more" money but I can't complain.

[erac22 0]

hmm... the Dow's down almost 300 and we haven't even reached the 3pm witching hour. Could get very ugly if the pattern of the last 2 weeks continues (accelerating losses or gains in the last half hour of trading).**as I was saying... market actually held it's ground for most of the hour, but couldn't quite make it till 4. Losing/gaining a percent in the last 20 minutes of trading is becoming standard.

[Yoda 1]

It was nice having a large portion in cash - trading is exciting. Now I have to see if I want to get back in stuff or run for the hills...

[aucu 3]

Bad day overall but my SQI is only down a cent.

[WrongWay 0]

Man, that dude named "WrongAlways" sure called the credit crunch. $130 billion injected by the Euro Central Bank to allow the banks to borrow from teh ECB to meet the margin calls they had in each others over levereged debts. Honest to goodness 1929 style run on the bank could have been triggered without an unprecidentally large injection. All triggered when a couple hedge funds saud they cant' allow any more investors to get out becuase they hold sub-prime backed CDO and MBS... SO, the banks that were owed money by those hedge funds issued margin calls, so the bank that ran the funds issued margin calles to bthe people that owed it money.... Cascade avalanche of everyone trying to get money to pay off everyone else.That was followed by $24 billion extra injection by the U.S. Fed to allow U.S. banks to cover their withdrawls by Euro banks.All because, as I said months ago, the CDOs and MBSs were going to crash in value because the rating is based on house prices never going down, and housing preices are about to fall 30-50%.And, the economy is going to slow, because of the $500 trillion in annual equity extraction that consumers have been making from their house ATM. That money is gone and now they have to pay it back. Retail sales were down everywhere except WalMart and Costco... oh, the big box retailers...NO idiots!!!! The stores that sell groceries, and food has had massive inflation in the last year. Retail sells SUCK because consumers are having to reduce spending, and that ain't good in an economy that is 2/3rd consumer spending.Euro was weak vs. dollar today. Wonder what effect that will have on corporate profits that were temporarily pushed up due to the exchange rate as we entered the crash before Europe, but now they are catching up to us and their currency will catch up to us on the way down.Pop...Crash

[WrongWay 0]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home"Bernanke, Paulson Were Wrong: Subprime Contagion Is Spreading"No shi t!!!!!!

[erac22 0]

Wow, well I just got off an unprecedented 50 minute morning call (usually it's about 15 minutes) where the sentiment was much much gloomier than it has been. The "buzzphrases" had been "valuations still appealing," "markets are oversold," "Dow 16,000 by year's end." Today it was more like "we still see downside in the market," "valuations are not as compelling as they seem," "the economy appears to be slowing," and "we may need to start raising cash and re-evaluating our quant strategies." Quite a reversal in a short amount of time. The CIO, who usually isn't even in on morning calls, was particularly bearish, after being quoted in the Philly Inquirer as saying "we are entering a time period of unprecedented uncertainty." My 100% cash position is looking pretty decent right now.

[No_Neck 0]

did anyone else see Cramer go ballistic?

[Yoda 1]

Wow, well I just got off an unprecedented 50 minute morning call (usually it's about 15 minutes) where the sentiment was much much gloomier than it has been. The "buzzphrases" had been "valuations still appealing," "markets are oversold," "Dow 16,000 by year's end." Today it was more like "we still see downside in the market," "valuations are not as compelling as they seem," "the economy appears to be slowing," and "we may need to start raising cash and re-evaluating our quant strategies." Quite a reversal in a short amount of time. The CIO, who usually isn't even in on morning calls, was particularly bearish, after being quoted in the Philly Inquirer as saying "we are entering a time period of unprecedented uncertainty." My 100% cash position is looking pretty decent right now.

Having cash is good - but only if you are using it - I'm still making good money on these ridiculous dips, it's awesome. Precision Castparts this morning just ddddove for no reason, no news. I watched it somehow drop 18 points - I laughed and threw $3000 at it @ 121.30/share. Went back well over $130 and sold at $134. Sitting at $132 now.My copper stock, TGB, also dipped wwwway too far, - I sold that last week at 5.37 because it was running up a LOT. I got back in this morning at 4.42. Sitting in the $4.80's. You just gotta bob and weavvvve.

did anyone else see Cramer go ballistic?

Yea, it was pretty awesome. He was also on Colbert who proceeded to make fun of him - and he's been playing the clip on his own show and mocking himself. That was reality TV right there!

[WrongWay 0]

Latest news.... Teh run up Mon-Wed was a giant, well organized short-squeeze by some major players. The blowup in Europe Wednesday night and the drastic drop Thursday left these major players upside down on thier short squeeze. They are doing everything they can to rally the market to let them out of their long positions, but evryone else is selling into their rallies. This only makes them more upside down..And, as the Friday, closing hour mass sell off nears....Damn, why didn't someone WARN us about what was coming????Oh, yeah, I did!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Hello people. We're off the edge of the cliff.Crammer can rant all he wants about people getting killed out there, but the fed is't going to cut rates to allow you to dump your positions onto other bag holders.Glad I'm 100% in treasuries. I'm not going to be anyone's bag holder, thanksBig boys have been playing games tryong to find bag holders for their mess. Unfortunatly, they've been playing with each other, and LOTS of them HAVE to be the bag holders. Hope the traders held on to all of last year's Christmas bonus because this year it is going to be a Thanksgiving layoff!!! Calling me a moron and adding me to ignore list seems to have not stopped reality of how bad this is, and is going to get.Wall Street, and pension funds, and 401(k) that hold stoks or non treasury bonds, banks, business, workers, EVERY American is fooked due to the games these a$$hat Wall Street bozos have been playing.Recession or worse.... probably worse.