do you ever value bet 3rd pair? .5/1 full

[psujohn 0]

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cxPreflop: Hero is MP3 with J:club:, Q:club:. 2 folds, BB checks.Flop: (3.50 SB) A:spade:, 8:club:, K:spade: (3 players)BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks.Turn: (1.75 BB) 6:heart: (3 players)BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks.River: (1.75 BB) J:diamond: (3 players)BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero ???Villains would have to be super passive to check down any Ax, Kx this far but can we assume that we're good and value bet this?

[RayPowers 0]

Do you ever bet, probably? But there? I don't think so. The pot is 1.75 BB, it's not really worth putting money in against, and what do you do when the inevitible raise comes? Ray

[Pancake407 0]

I check behind too, i dont see what is going to call us if we bet. Maybe a small pp, but at .5/1 theres a SMALL possibility of a K, pots small, and a c/r would be horrible.

[screech 0]

I bet. You basically have TPTK. An ace or a king would have bet the turn already.

what do you do when the inevitible raise comes?

You really think you're getting set up for a c/r?

[RayPowers 0]

I bet. You basically have TPTK. An ace or a king would have bet the turn already.

what do you do when the inevitible raise comes?

You really think you're getting set up for a c/r?

YES! This is a .50/1 table. I expect the most random play possible at all times. :doh: In addition, I expect to be called and lose to A/trash or K/trash much too often for it to be profitable to bet there.Why are we throwing a BB at a 1.75 BB pot with little to no assurance of value? I'm confused. I normally find your posts extremely logical, but this one throws me. Ray

[pokerplayer24 0]

I raise this preflop.I think its safe to bet this river. You'll get called by a ton of crap.

[txag007 0]

Why are we throwing a BB at a 1.75 BB pot with little to no assurance of value? I'm confused.

Most of the time we have the best hand. The times are rare that we are up against a passively played ace or king, although it undoubtedly will happen. If we bet here, we get called by a weaker pair much more often than we get raised. More often than not, those aces or kings out there will just call anyway.

[psujohn 0]

I raise this preflop.I think its safe to bet this river. You'll get called by a ton of crap.

QJs plays well multi-way. Table was playing pretty loose. I expected more limpers behind if I limped.I can't see anyone check/raising this river. Even the most bizarre low limit player knows not to try a c/r on the river when no one has bet the flop or turn.

[RayPowers 0]

Why are we throwing a BB at a 1.75 BB pot with little to no assurance of value? I'm confused.

Most of the time we have the best hand. The times are rare that we are up against a passively played ace or king, although it undoubtedly will happen. If we bet here, we get called by a weaker pair much more often than we get raised. More often than not, those aces or kings out there will just call anyway.

That's my problem here. I honestly don't think I have the best hand here, at least not often enough for this to be profitable. :(I am willing to concede that *IF* I think I have the best hand most of the time, I would bet this. But I don't. At $2/$4 I would agree, at $.50/$1, the randomness of the players makes me more cautious.Ray

[txag007 0]

Why are we throwing a BB at a 1.75 BB pot with little to no assurance of value? I'm confused.

Most of the time we have the best hand. The times are rare that we are up against a passively played ace or king, although it undoubtedly will happen. If we bet here, we get called by a weaker pair much more often than we get raised. More often than not, those aces or kings out there will just call anyway.

That's my problem here. I honestly don't think I have the best hand here, at least not often enough for this to be profitable. :(I am willing to concede that *IF* I think I have the best hand most of the time, I would bet this. But I don't. At $2/$4 I would agree, at $.50/$1, the randomness of the players makes me more cautious.Ray

Would you agree that we have the best hand here 31% of the time? Assume the following: Half of the time that we bet the river and have the best hand we get called by one of our opponents and the other opponent folds. (Winning 2.75 BB) The other half of the time that we bet the river and have the best hand both of our opponents fold. (Winning 1.75 BB) The times that we bet the river and don't have the best hand, we either fold to a check-raise or lose the showdown. (Losing 1 BB)Under these assumptions, we only require the best hand just under 31% of the time to show a profit long term. I think that's reasonable even at 0.5/1.00. Surely, our jacks are good more than that.

[screech 0]

Why are we throwing a BB at a 1.75 BB pot with little to no assurance of value? I'm confused. I normally find your posts extremely logical, but this one throws me.

Sorry. I tried to be logical. :-)In a 3 player pot, someone will always bet an ace on this turn. It is also very likely someone would bet a king on this turn or river (I think MP always does, and BB usually does). Even if your opponents are passive enough that they wouldn't bet a king here, they definetly won't c/r you on this river.I think we have the best hand here a high % of the time. Furthermore, we will get called by all kinds of trash here quite a bit.

[RayPowers 0]

Would you agree that we have the best hand here 31% of the time? Assume the following: Half of the time that we bet the river and have the best hand we get called by one of our opponents and the other opponent folds. (Winning 2.75 BB) The other half of the time that we bet the river and have the best hand both of our opponents fold. (Winning 1.75 BB) The times that we bet the river and don't have the best hand, we either fold to a check-raise or lose the showdown. (Losing 1 BB)Under these assumptions, we only require the best hand just under 31% of the time to show a profit long term. I think that's reasonable even at 0.5/1.00. Surely, our jacks are good more than that.

I'm gonna fire way off the bow into neverneverland with this response because, well, this is strategy and is a place of learning, so... I want to learn.First, I'd' say that there is a distinct possibility that we may, on the river, be check raised by a worse hand, but still have to fold, so your third is not really phrased right for my tastes.Second, I have this feeling of lost opportunity costs when the third has make me feel like I am losing 2.75 BB, not 1, since if I checked they could not pull the resteal play on me, so therefore I effectively gave up a 1.75 BB pot by betting instead of checking, if I am resolved to fold to any check raise (which it sounds like everyone agrees we should do). This obviously affects the math.Thoughts?I appear to be losing this one, so I'm backing off here, but still not clear in the value other people see in it, so I'm going to keep asking questions. :)Ray

[txag007 0]

First, I'd' say that there is a distinct possibility that we may, on the river, be check raised by a worse hand, but still have to fold, so your third is not really phrased right for my tastes. Second, I have this feeling of lost opportunity costs when the third has make me feel like I am losing 2.75 BB, not 1, since if I checked they could not pull the resteal play on me, so therefore I effectively gave up a 1.75 BB pot by betting instead of checking, if I am resolved to fold to any check raise (which it sounds like everyone agrees we should do). This obviously affects the math.

There are a lot of factors that affect the math. I was just simplifying things for the purpose of this discussion. The bottom line is that because we have two opponents who will often call with worse hands (especially if it looks like we are trying to steal the pot), we don't have win a majority of the time to show a long term profit.

[TJ_Eckleburg 0]

It's important that the only straight possible on this board is the rivered QT gutshot, and no flush is possible as well.Passive opponents may check an ace or a king once or twice, but those same passive opponents won't check/raise the river. And, passive opponents will still call with 99 and stuff.I think we have the best hand here much more often than you do... is what it boils down to, lol.(:

[RayPowers 0]

I think we have the best hand here much more often than you do... is what it boils down to, lol.(:

Yeah, I think that's where we're ending here, because I can fully agree with the concept of betting this for value if we think we will have the bets hand more often.You know, my wife tells me I always assume that people have me beat when she watches me play poker. I thought I was getting it under control, but this thread is going to make me re-evaluate. :)Ray

[psujohn 0]

I think a bluff river c/r is so unlikely that we don't even need to consider it. Anyone capable of a bluff would lead the turn or river instead.Oddly enough I didn't really expect this hand to generate a lot of discussion. Tiny pot being part of that.I think it all boils down to how often a baby A or K will check this all the way down. And the fact that BB still has an entirely random hand. If this were head up I think I'd have been much more likely to value bet the river but given that BB hasn't put any $ in the pot voluntarily we can almost treat this as a heads up pot.I ended up checking here but I think I'm nearly convinced that I really should have value bet it.

[RayPowers 0]

I think a bluff river c/r is so unlikely that we don't even need to consider it. Anyone capable of a bluff would lead the turn or river instead.

For one last poke into this dicussion I have already lost (), I think my point here is that I think they will put you on a steal and try to resteal, and you will have to fold. I don't think they actually plan it out at this level so much as say "Hey! That guy just tried to steal the pot! I bet he has nothing! *clicks raise*"Ray

[Actuary 3]

dont bet.You could bet the flop and try to take it there.Otherwise it becomes too expensive to be wrong and not worth it.You have the nut no pair hand.*** read replies ***I'm wrong.'Cuase I misssed our pair!easy bet/fold.

[pokerplayer24 0]

I think a bluff river c/r is so unlikely that we don't even need to consider it. Anyone capable of a bluff would lead the turn or river instead.

For one last poke into this dicussion I have already lost (), I think my point here is that I think they will put you on a steal and try to resteal, and you will have to fold. I don't think they actually plan it out at this level so much as say "Hey! That guy just tried to steal the pot! I bet he has nothing! *clicks raise*"Ray

Bet/call then. Checking behind is the worst option here.