bad use of miller's short stack theory?

[Guest]

Hey ppl,I've never tried this strategy in shorthanded NL. Just wondering, do you loosen up the hands required to move in with in 6max NL, or do you just keep them the same as Ed Miller recommends?Thanks

[Abbaddabba 0]

This is a moronic argument. Both sides are arguing that their play would be plus EV and the truth of the matter is, both of them would be. You just happened to be put in a situation where you have cards that are difficult to lose money with.Whether if you just call or push, if put in this situation repeatedly, you'll show a profit. I'm not convinced that either play is necessarily better than the other. The more aggressive the table, the more inclined i am to push.

[Cycrac 0]

I've been observer of the forum for quite some time but never posted before. However when I read through this thread I decided to try to make a clear argument why going all in preflop is much better. Here goes:Let's put MP on AA-22, AKs-JTo (being quite conservative as he might be raising with lower suited connectors too), and button on wider range, AA-22, AKs-Jto + A9s-A4s and suited connectors down to 76s..-MP calls the preflop ai with hands: equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)Hero: 52.0406 % [ 00.48 00.04 ] { AcQd }MP: 47.9594 % [ 00.44 00.04 ] { AA-66, AKs-ATs, KQs-KJs, QJs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo }Which is ~ 2/3 of the time given the range of his cards(button folds 2/3 of the time so this scenario happens 2/3*2/3=44% of the time).-If MP calls the ai, button calls with: equity (%) win (%) / tie (%) Hero: 28.5927 % [ 00.24 00.05 ] { AcQd }MP: 32.3140 % [ 00.30 00.02 ] { AA-66, AKs-ATs, KQs-KJs, QJs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo }Button: 39.0933 % [ 00.35 00.04 ] { AA-99, AKs-AJs, KQs-KJs, AKo-AQo, KQo }Which is ~ 2/3*1/3=22% of the time.-If MP folds, the lag button calls the ai with: equity (%) win (%) / tie (%) Hero: 52.8027 % [ 00.49 00.04 ] { AcQd }Button: 47.1973 % [ 00.43 00.04 ] { AA-66, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-AJo, KQo-KJo, QJo }Which is ~ 1/3*2/3 = 22% of the time.-Then there's the time when they both fold, the rest, 22%.Now there are 4 scenarios:-In 1st and 3rd we are getting 1:1,35 odds and we win roughly 52,5% of the time, making about profit about $3,35. This happens 66% of the time, so its $2,21 / hand.-In 2nd scenario we are getting 1:2,24 odds and we win 28,6% of the time, losing $1,06. However this scenario happens only 22% of the time so we are losing $0,23 / hand.-4th scenario is when they both fold, and we win the $6,5 pot. This is the rest, 22%. So we make profit $1,43 / hand.In total we are making profit $3,4 per hand by going ai preflop.If you just call, the pot is $8 on the flop and we have $13 left. We hit our hand 37% of the time (pair or better). Let's assume we go ai, one of the opponents calls 1/3 the time given the hand ranges and we have the best hand 2/3 of the time. (of that 37%, 32,5% we have hit 1 pair in which case we are losing to AK KK AA QQ, but winning Ax, KQ)-If we miss, we lose 0,63*$1,5=$0,95 / hand.-If we hit, and no-one calls the ai, we win 2/3*0.37*$6,5=$1,6 / hand.-If we hit and someone calls, we win 1/3*0.37*2/3*($6,5+$13)-1/3*0.37*1/3*($14,5)=$1,0 / hand.Combined, we are winning $1,65 / hand by just calling preflop.Now even if they called post flop with crappier hands when we hit, like 1/2 time and we'd have the best hand 80% the time, we'd still be making profit only $2,6 / hand by calling preflop. I didn't take the times when they both called the ai post flop into account as we would almost break even in this case, and neither did I take the times when we'd hit a monster and slowplay it, as it happens only like 2% of the time.Also if we'd put the LAG on wider range of hands in the first place, it would only make going all in preflop even better option.Clearly going AI preflop is the better play here, as we are makin over 2x more profit.

[Nutcracker 0]

Button: 39.0933 % [ 00.35 00.04 ] { AA-99, AKs-AJs, KQs-KJs, AKo-AQo, KQo }

You give button way too much credit. At these limits, someone sees 2 allins in front of them as more money in the pot, not as stronger hands. I'd include pp down to 55 or so, as well as any suited connector and any 2 cards 10+. If you don't think he'd call with QJo or QTo, you're mistaken. Same with MP. Hell, they might just surprise us and call with Q7o.

[NickTheKid 0]

I don't disagree AQ is worth putting all your money in... after the flop.

[Cycrac 0]

Button: 39.0933 % [ 00.35 00.04 ] { AA-99, AKs-AJs, KQs-KJs, AKo-AQo, KQo }

You give button way too much credit. At these limits, someone sees 2 allins in front of them as more money in the pot, not as stronger hands. I'd include pp down to 55 or so, as well as any suited connector and any 2 cards 10+. If you don't think he'd call with QJo or QTo, you're mistaken. Same with MP. Hell, they might just surprise us and call with Q7o.

The reason why I didn't give button wider hand range is because it would only make going all in preflop a better option. I only tried to prove that all in preflop was better play than just calling....I kind of took the 'worst case scenario' from the perspective of going all in preflop and calculated the outcome.

[Nutcracker 0]

Curious, how did you get your numbers on winrate against the range of your opponents' hands?

[Cycrac 0]

Curious, how did you get your numbers on winrate against the range of your opponents' hands?

http://www.pokerstove.com/

[akishore 0]

brando, i don't like it.honestly.since you have 30 big blinds, that's almost not on the verge of shortstacked. miller's defiinition of shortstacked is between 15-25 big blinds. with 30 big blinds, you have almost a medium stack (25-50 big blinds) and you need to be careful not to overvalue hands.remember the section where he talks about the ratio between the initial raise and your stack?remember that the higher the ratio, the tighter you need to play?and that's when YOU made the initial raise.the ratio here is humongous, 7-to-1. even if YOU made the initial raise, miller advocates folding all but AA-KK/AK/AKs when the ratio is as high as 4-to-1 or higher (maybe it was 5-to-1, i don't remember off the top of my head).he also says to tighten up a LOT if the raise is in front of you and it's NOT you.here, the raise is in front of you, and the ratio is monstrously high (7-to-1).i fold this and wait for a better spot.i'm really torn up about calling. i don't like calling since it's playing passively, and you'll be folding more than half the time when you miss the flop (when you might even have the best hand), but i don't like pushing. you also don't have much room for a reraise, since a standard reraise would be to $8 or so, and yo'ure left with only $7 to bet on the flop when you might not have the best hand (if both people call, $7 won't even be 1/3 of the pot, and you might get called when you're beat on missed flops too often).i think:folding > pushing > standard raise > callingaseem

[NickTheKid 0]

Thank you aseem, finally someone that doesn't jump on the Smasheroo bandwaggon.

[Abbaddabba 0]

I've been observer of the forum for quite some time but never posted before. However when I read through this thread I decided to try to make a clear argument why going all in preflop is much better. Here goes:Let's put MP on AA-22, AKs-JTo (being quite conservative as he might be raising with lower suited connectors too), and button on wider range, AA-22, AKs-Jto + A9s-A4s and suited connectors down to 76s..-MP calls the preflop ai with hands: equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)Hero: 52.0406 % [ 00.48 00.04 ] { AcQd }MP: 47.9594 % [ 00.44 00.04 ] { AA-66, AKs-ATs, KQs-KJs, QJs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo }Which is ~ 2/3 of the time given the range of his cards(button folds 2/3 of the time so this scenario happens 2/3*2/3=44% of the time).-If MP calls the ai, button calls with: equity (%) win (%) / tie (%) Hero: 28.5927 % [ 00.24 00.05 ] { AcQd }MP: 32.3140 % [ 00.30 00.02 ] { AA-66, AKs-ATs, KQs-KJs, QJs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo }Button: 39.0933 % [ 00.35 00.04 ] { AA-99, AKs-AJs, KQs-KJs, AKo-AQo, KQo }Which is ~ 2/3*1/3=22% of the time.-If MP folds, the lag button calls the ai with: equity (%) win (%) / tie (%) Hero: 52.8027 % [ 00.49 00.04 ] { AcQd }Button: 47.1973 % [ 00.43 00.04 ] { AA-66, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-AJo, KQo-KJo, QJo }Which is ~ 1/3*2/3 = 22% of the time.-Then there's the time when they both fold, the rest, 22%.Now there are 4 scenarios:-In 1st and 3rd we are getting 1:1,35 odds and we win roughly 52,5% of the time, making about profit about $3,35. This happens 66% of the time, so its $2,21 / hand.-In 2nd scenario we are getting 1:2,24 odds and we win 28,6% of the time, losing $1,06. However this scenario happens only 22% of the time so we are losing $0,23 / hand.-4th scenario is when they both fold, and we win the $6,5 pot. This is the rest, 22%. So we make profit $1,43 / hand.In total we are making profit $3,4 per hand by going ai preflop.If you just call, the pot is $8 on the flop and we have $13 left. We hit our hand 37% of the time (pair or better). Let's assume we go ai, one of the opponents calls 1/3 the time given the hand ranges and we have the best hand 2/3 of the time. (of that 37%, 32,5% we have hit 1 pair in which case we are losing to AK KK AA QQ, but winning Ax, KQ)-If we miss, we lose 0,63*$1,5=$0,95 / hand.-If we hit, and no-one calls the ai, we win 2/3*0.37*$6,5=$1,6 / hand.-If we hit and someone calls, we win 1/3*0.37*2/3*($6,5+$13)-1/3*0.37*1/3*($14,5)=$1,0 / hand.Combined, we are winning $1,65 / hand by just calling preflop.Now even if they called post flop with crappier hands when we hit, like 1/2 time and we'd have the best hand 80% the time, we'd still be making profit only $2,6 / hand by calling preflop. I didn't take the times when they both called the ai post flop into account as we would almost break even in this case, and neither did I take the times when we'd hit a monster and slowplay it, as it happens only like 2% of the time.Also if we'd put the LAG on wider range of hands in the first place, it would only make going all in preflop even better option.Clearly going AI preflop is the better play here, as we are makin over 2x more profit.

That requires far too many assumptions to be reliable.

[Cycrac 0]

That requires far too many assumptions to be reliable.

Maybe, but the result (2x more profit by going ai) suggests that going ai is better option than just calling, even if the assumptions are a big off.I thought by the original post that MP had raised with JTo before, when I made the hand calculations. As suggested by aseem, folding might be the best option if we really don't know anything about MP.

[Smasharoo 0]

Thank you aseem, finally someone that doesn't jump on the Smasheroo bandwaggon.Yeah, it's because I psted it, not because it's painfuly obviously right.Caling here is so much worse that moving in it barely merits discussion.The fact that people debate such ludicrously clear cut and simple decisions like this one is testament to how stuningly soft NL is today. That you could be a winning player missing out on massive value plays like this is simply amazing.

[akishore 0]

Thank you aseem, finally someone that doesn't jump on the Smasheroo bandwaggon.Yeah, it's because I psted it, not because it's painfuly obviously right.Caling here is so much worse that moving in it barely merits discussion.The fact that people debate such ludicrously clear cut and simple decisions like this one is testament to how stuningly soft NL is today. That you could be a winning player missing out on massive value plays like this is simply amazing.

smash,i agree that calling is by far the worst move.making any type of raise besides all-in is the second worst move, IMHO.but, between pushing and folding, i think folding is a better play.in the theory, miller talks about the importance of situations where the ratio of raise-to-stack is as low as possible. here, that ratio is very high.he also talks about the importance of tightening way up when there is a raise in front of you. he advocates folding A-Q as a shortstack against any raise in front of you (he says to only play AA-KK/AK/AKs).i know that he also advocates folding A-Q in SSHE but you prefer to three-bet it (i'm the same in limit HE), so the decision to push or fold is a close one. but, since brando started the hand with 30 big blinds (almost past, if not already past, the spectrum of "shortstack" according to miller), i think it's important to tighten up even more on the pre-flop pushes since the risk is greater.calling is horrendous.but between folding and pushing, i prefer folding.aseemedit: my post was way too wordy. simplified: calling sucks--that's not what i'm arguing. the question is, FOLD or PUSH? i think folding is better than pushing, but i agree that pushing is better than any other play.

[akishore 0]

let me add one more point.getting 2-to-1 on all your money pre-flop with A-Q is great.but, i think it's wrong to easily assume that you will get 2-to-1.i think it's fairly reasonable to think that many of the times, you will shut out the cold-caller and get heads-up with the original raiser. now, suddenly, you're getting only 1-to-1 on all your money pre-flop with A-Q against a hand that might even have you dominated or as a 2-to-1 dog.by pushing as a large overbet to the small pot (the pot is $6ish after his call, and he's pushing in for $13 more), you are also making it more likely for a worse hand to fold--something you DON'T want happening most of the time when it puts you head-to-head against a strong raisable hand.for these reasons--the key factor being that a push is a large overbet of the pot--i really prefer folding A-Q here and waiting for a better spot.aseem

[Smasharoo 0]

i think it's fairly reasonable to think that many of the times, you will shut out the cold-caller and get heads-up with the original raiser. now, suddenly, you're getting only 1-to-1 on all your money pre-flopImpossible to get 1 to 1.Do you see why?

[Smasharoo 0]

calling sucks--that's not what i'm arguing. the question is, FOLD or PUSH? i think folding is better than pushing5 Handed?

[akishore 0]

i think it's fairly reasonable to think that many of the times, you will shut out the cold-caller and get heads-up with the original raiser. now, suddenly, you're getting only 1-to-1 on all your money pre-flopImpossible to get 1 to 1.Do you see why?

yeah, i meant nearly 1-to-1. the $2.xx dead money in the pot is nice, but i don't think it would be enought to offset the difference if you were an underdog.aseem

[akishore 0]

calling sucks--that's not what i'm arguing. the question is, FOLD or PUSH? i think folding is better than pushing5 Handed?

i missed that part. thanks for pointing it out to me.that changes a lot.i think the decision is closer now... i'm still unsure, then, between pushing and folding.aseem