Zach6668 513 Posted May 25, 2010 Share Posted May 25, 2010 I really don't love my chances. I need a Chicago sweep, I think. Link to post Share on other sites
Babying 613 Posted May 25, 2010 Share Posted May 25, 2010 How can a person who has 6 players left out of 10 be in 5th place?Yes I am a loser. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted May 25, 2010 Share Posted May 25, 2010 Biatch has a serious chance here, even if this series is a sweep. 15 points back with Gagne, Timonen, Pronger and JVR. He'd need a point per game per player in case of a sweep, which isn't totally likely, but definitely possible. If it goes 7, he's probably the favourite.Lenny has two pure studs left in Giroux and Toews. He's 20 back, so he'd need a pretty long, high scoring series, but he has the guys to do it.Dale only has Bolland and Brouwer left. At 25 points back, he can probably be considered out of it.Wayne would be the last guy in contention with 6 players left, 4 decent guys, and then Kane and Briere putting up great numbers already. At 28 points back, he's got a shot if it goes long, but he'd have to score enough to not only pass me, but pass Biatch or Lenny if they pass me as well.Should be a super interesting finish.I need Chicago in 4, it seems. Link to post Share on other sites
00Lenny 0 Posted May 26, 2010 Share Posted May 26, 2010 So I've been balls-deep in personal shit for like, the entire playoffs, and literally haven't followed ANY of my pools. Safe to say, I'm not.......completely unsatisfied with where I'm at going into the Finals here, considering how badly the 'Nucks disappointed me :DSafe to say, Giroux was absolutely the mother of all sleeper picks for me in the eighth round, and Toews has been nothing short of a juggernaut, and I really don't expect either to fade out. That said......20 between them in 6 or 7 games? Probably too tall an order.Plus Biatch and Wayne both have me worried I'm really sincerely hoping Hossa doesn't wake up and decide to actually win a Cup for once. Kinda hoping Briere goes away too.I'm kinda worried that I'm playing for second now Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted May 26, 2010 Share Posted May 26, 2010 I worked out everyone's EV based on players' current points per game in these playoffs (small sample, but then it does somewhat take into account "streaks"). It doesn't really mean much, but it means something. If the SCF is over in:4 games:Zach - 106Biatch - 101.1946Lenny - 96.5Wayne - 95.04725 games:Zach - 106Biatch - 102.4932Wayne - 99.3009Lenny - 99.1256 games:Zach - 106Biatch - 104.7919Wayne - 103.5611Lenny - 101.757 games:Wayne - 107.8213Biatch - 107.0905Zach - 106Lenny - 104.375Obviously, anything can happen, but it projects to be a super tight race no matter what.I'm definitely rooting for the sweep, though. Link to post Share on other sites
Babying 613 Posted May 26, 2010 Share Posted May 26, 2010 Zach you are a freak.Hoping for 7 games. Link to post Share on other sites
Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted May 26, 2010 Share Posted May 26, 2010 I just found out the 1st game isn't until sat. Gary bettman screwed us over. Zach has a reallygood chance now tho that wed Thursday Friday nobody can get any points. Link to post Share on other sites
00Lenny 0 Posted May 26, 2010 Share Posted May 26, 2010 I worked out everyone's EV based on players' current points per game in these playoffs (small sample, but then it does somewhat take into account "streaks"). It doesn't really mean much, but it means something. If the SCF is over in:4 games:Zach - 106Biatch - 101.1946Lenny - 96.5Wayne - 95.04725 games:Zach - 106Biatch - 102.4932Wayne - 99.3009Lenny - 99.1256 games:Zach - 106Biatch - 104.7919Wayne - 103.5611Lenny - 101.757 games:Wayne - 107.8213Biatch - 107.0905Zach - 106Lenny - 104.375Obviously, anything can happen, but it projects to be a super tight race no matter what.I'm definitely rooting for the sweep, though.Now THIS is some hardcore pool action. Although your calculations fail to take into account the 11-point night that Toews will be having in game 1 I've never wanted to see a high-scoring, goalie-pulling series this bad before. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted May 26, 2010 Share Posted May 26, 2010 So, I had to look this up.$25 each, 11 poolies, = $275 in the prize pool.2/3rds for 1st = $183.33 for 1st1/3rds for 2nd = $91.67 for 2ndJust so we know what we're playing for here. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted May 28, 2010 Author Share Posted May 28, 2010 One of the most fun pools that Arp runs every year is the one from each team playoff pool...Its the only reason that i still have to watch these games..Not sure of my chances but i got a good shot to at least come top 2..Steve 110 pts Duncan Keith , Chris ProngerSerge 104 pts Mike Richards, Dustin ByfuglienBrandon 100 pts Mathieu Carle, Andrew Ladd(inj)JP 99 pts Kane and BriereI think JP has a very good chance to move up...I like my two players better than Steve, but he has a pretty good lead on me. JP has the best two players left and can move up with solid series by them. Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted May 28, 2010 Share Posted May 28, 2010 One of the most fun pools that Arp runs every year is the one from each team playoff pool...Its the only reason that i still have to watch these games..Not sure of my chances but i got a good shot to at least come top 2..Steve 110 pts Duncan Keith , Chris ProngerSerge 104 pts Mike Richards, Dustin ByfuglienBrandon 100 pts Mathieu Carle, Andrew Ladd(inj)JP 99 pts Kane and BriereI think JP has a very good chance to move up...I like my two players better than Steve, but he has a pretty good lead on me. JP has the best two players left and can move up with solid series by them.Eleven points will be next to impossible to make up. You have a shot. Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted May 28, 2010 Share Posted May 28, 2010 One of the most fun pools that Arp runs every year is the one from each team playoff pool...Its the only reason that i still have to watch these games..Not sure of my chances but i got a good shot to at least come top 2..Steve 110 pts Duncan Keith , Chris ProngerSerge 104 pts Mike Richards, Dustin ByfuglienBrandon 100 pts Mathieu Carle, Andrew Ladd(inj)JP 99 pts Kane and BriereI think JP has a very good chance to move up...I like my two players better than Steve, but he has a pretty good lead on me. JP has the best two players left and can move up with solid series by them.You have a shot at first. But you could also finish 3rd because of JP passing you. I think its got a possibility to be really tight between you 3, which is why I love this format, cause it almost always brings out a tight finish, and a head-to-head matchup of 2players vs 2players in the last games.Oh, and thank you Markov+Krejci for getting hurt and not giving me any shot at this, even with Giroux+Seabrook! GL Serge! I told Steve I might have to cheer for you. I got Toews+Kane+Bolland in the other one, but Im still gonna lose to Jay and his 4 Flyers+bunch of Sharks. I hate that MapleLeafs guy! :icon_biggrin:I think I get my money back for 2nd.How about this one. In another pool Im in for $100 each, 12 guys, I had a 33pt lead at one point over everyone in the 2nd round....and Im gonna lose. Any day now the guy currently in 2nd is gonna pass me cause he has nothing but Hawks+Flyers. Im outta players, though I had Pit+Van+Det+Mtl guys. You homers and your teams suck!Worst part? No 2nd place money. FACK! Link to post Share on other sites
Babying 613 Posted May 30, 2010 Share Posted May 30, 2010 Come on baby. Need these guys to keep scoring. The dream is still alive!!!!!!! Link to post Share on other sites
Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted May 30, 2010 Share Posted May 30, 2010 Ugh, not a good game. 5 Philly goals, and all I get is a measley 2 assists. 13 points away from Zach. I need his guys to get donuts the rest of the way, or atleast start eating some. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted May 30, 2010 Share Posted May 30, 2010 I think Wayne had 11 points tonight!Not a good start for me. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted May 31, 2010 Share Posted May 31, 2010 Come on Chicago!!! Three 2-0 shutout wins is all I ask for. Heck, I can almost live with 3-0 wins. Link to post Share on other sites
Babying 613 Posted May 31, 2010 Share Posted May 31, 2010 Come on Chicago!!! Three 2-0 shutout wins is all I ask for. Heck, I can almost live with 3-0 wins.Let's hope for a nice nail bitter high scoring 7 game series. Link to post Share on other sites
Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted May 31, 2010 Share Posted May 31, 2010 I did some calculations, the chances of winning:Wayne: 50%Zach: 40%Biatch: 6%Everybody Else: 4% Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted May 31, 2010 Share Posted May 31, 2010 Everybody Else: 4%WOOHOO IM BACK IN IT! Link to post Share on other sites
Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted May 31, 2010 Share Posted May 31, 2010 I'm at a huge disadvantage because I am without superstar JVR. He has been banned due to illegal substances. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted May 31, 2010 Share Posted May 31, 2010 After factoring in the game 1 stats, same calculations as before:4-game series:Zach - 106Wayne - 102.9076Biatch - 99.8095Lenny - 93.421565-game series:Wayne - 107.5434Zach - 106Biatch - 102.0794Lenny - 95.89546-game series:Wayne - 112.1793Zach - 106Biatch - 104.3492Lenny - 98.36937-game series:Wayne - 116.8151Biatch - 106.619Zach - 106Lenny - 100.8431 Link to post Share on other sites
Babying 613 Posted June 1, 2010 Share Posted June 1, 2010 This game tonight does not look good. At least give Philly the win so we can go at least 5 games. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted June 1, 2010 Share Posted June 1, 2010 Very good night for me. I think you and Biatch got one point each. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted June 1, 2010 Share Posted June 1, 2010 After factoring in the game 1 and 2 stats, same calculations as before:4-game series:Zach - 106Wayne - 98.87Biatch - 98.44Lenny - 90.685-game series:Zach - 106Wayne - 103.31Biatch - 100.66Lenny - 93.026-game series:Wayne - 107.75Zach - 106Biatch - 102.87Lenny - 95.367-game series:Wayne - 112.18Zach - 106Biatch - 105.09Lenny - 97.70(Last update, since I'm heading to Vegas and the spreadsheet that can do this in a couple mins will be left at home. Go sweep!)edit - pretty close to taking Lenny off of this list, since he'd need both Toews and Giroux to average 2 points per game AND have it go 7. Not impossible, so he stays in. Dale is actually one point closer currently, but he has Brouwer and Bolland, and it's even less likely that those two go off at 2 ppg over 5 more, so I haven't added him into my posts, despite calculating his "EV" each time anyways. Link to post Share on other sites
Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted June 1, 2010 Share Posted June 1, 2010 big game tmw. Wayne and I need a big game from Philly, at the very least to get the W. It's only a matter of time before Zach's guys start heatin up. Link to post Share on other sites
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