Aq In Bb - All-in Or Fold?

[qnshustler 0]

Ok, introduced myself in the last post, this was a different SNG. Original raiser preflop was very tight/solid he was a 21/6/4. I honestly was almost positive I would be behind as soon as he opened and it was folded to me but I just did not have the stack where I thought I could fold this hand, believe me I actually tanked for a good 10-15 sec's or so seriously contemplating it. Given that info, would you ever consider folding this here? I'm probably just overthinking..PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $5.00+$0.50 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.comMP2 (t2350)CO (t4075)Button (t2720)SB (t1730)Hero (BB) (t1035)UTG (t1050)MP1 (t540)Hero's M: 6.90Preflop: Hero is BB with Q , A 2 folds, MP2 bets t300, 3 folds, Hero raises to t1035 (All-In), MP2 calls t735Flop: (t2120) J , 5 , 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)Turn: (t2120) J (2 players, 1 all-in)River: (t2120) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)Total pot: t2120

[got-aces 0]

personally I am not a fan of raising my blind--I would prefer to see the flop and to see if I hit anything---especially with ace queen I never win with it and I lose to it everytime lol

[qnshustler 0]

personally I am not a fan of raising my blind--I would prefer to see the flop and to see if I hit anything---especially with ace queen I never win with it and I lose to it everytime lol

With the stack I had though can you really justify flatting with the intention of check/folding a missed flop? maybe with a bigger stack but i think i was pretty committed to just get it in here. Any thoughts on just folding it instead? I mean i think most people will say thats too nitty but my gut kind of told me to here i just couldn't bring myself to listen. thanks for the feedback.

[jmbreslin 0]

No, you can't call and see a flop. With your stack you're in push/fold territory. This is a tough one only because of the stats you have on villain. 21/6 means he plays a decent percentage of hands but only raises a small percentage of those. That means your AQ likely doesn't stack up well against his raising range. Since you have zero fold equity here you have to be confident your hand is in good shape against his range. The times he calls and flips over something like AJ or KQ are far outnumbered by the times he'll flip over a med-high PP or AK.I'd fold and use my stack to steal or push back against looser raisers.

[qnshustler 0]

AQ likely doesn't stack up well against his raising range. Since you have zero fold equity here you have to be confident your hand is in good shape against his range. The times he calls and flips over something like AJ or KQ are far outnumbered by the times he'll flip over a med-high PP or AK.I'd fold and use my stack to steal or push back against looser raisers.

Yea JM i think that all basically sums up how i felt during the hand, but put into more logical sounding words, kudos. Glad that you agree its a tough situation given his low prf percentage and sounds like you wouldn't have considered it too nitty to fold. thanks!

[SwolyswoND 1]

Over how big a sample are those stats? If just from this SNG, it means nothing. Unless those are villains stats over like 5000+ hands, I'm shoving this every time.

[qnshustler 0]

It was only over about 50 hands. I guess over a huge sample it would have been easier to justify folding, thats probably another reason i didn't.

[jmbreslin 0]

The sample may be way too small to draw definite conclusions about his specific tendencies but that doesn't mean the stats are useless. They are still useful as a guide to develop reads on general playing styles. Saying the stats are useless is kind of like saying you can't develop any reads on players during a single SnG because you don't have enough hands against them. I agree that you can't read too much into stats like 3-betting percentages or check-raise percentages, because those denominators will be tiny. But I think there is enough worthwhile info in VPIP/PFR stats over 50 hands to help your decisions.Besides, the most telling thing for me about the stats is not the numbers themselves but the gap between the VPIP and PFR. Whether over a larger sample he's a 21/6 or a 28/10 or a 16/4 is not so relevant. But the gap does indicate that he's the kind of player who raises a small percentage of the hands he plays. This is more valuable info than if his stats were something like 8/6, which may be a result of just being card dead as opposed to being nitty.

[cdipierr 0]

I push here because we actually do have some FE assuming our image is reasonably snug. If MP is raising something like 66->99, there's a possibility he'll fold given he's a 21/6, but even if he doesn't we're fine to race. He's obviously not folding TT+, but there's only 3 hands there that have us in horrible shape. Hands like these are the reason you have to play a lot of SnGs. Sometimes he'll show up with AA or KK, but from 1 bet there's no guarantee. So if we bust here, play another.

[qnshustler 0]

The sample may be way too small to draw definite conclusions about his specific tendencies but that doesn't mean the stats are useless. They are still useful as a guide to develop reads on general playing styles. Saying the stats are useless is kind of like saying you can't develop any reads on players during a single SnG because you don't have enough hands against them. I agree that you can't read too much into stats like 3-betting percentages or check-raise percentages, because those denominators will be tiny. But I think there is enough worthwhile info in VPIP/PFR stats over 50 hands to help your decisions.Besides, the most telling thing for me about the stats is not the numbers themselves but the gap between the VPIP and PFR. Whether over a larger sample he's a 21/6 or a 28/10 or a 16/4 is not so relevant. But the gap does indicate that he's the kind of player who raises a small percentage of the hands he plays. This is more valuable info than if his stats were something like 8/6, which may be a result of just being card dead as opposed to being nitty.

Seeing as I track stats throughout all sng's and base a fair amount of my decisions on them I definitely would agree that even a small sample size of stats is useful. I like your second point as well in explaining the significance of that gap between vpip and pfr, definitely solid analysis.

[qnshustler 0]

I push here because we actually do have some FE assuming our image is reasonably snug. If MP is raising something like 66->99, there's a possibility he'll fold given he's a 21/6, but even if he doesn't we're fine to race. He's obviously not folding TT+, but there's only 3 hands there that have us in horrible shape. Hands like these are the reason you have to play a lot of SnGs. Sometimes he'll show up with AA or KK, but from 1 bet there's no guarantee. So if we bust here, play another.

Really given the stack sizes, pot odds (my shove giving him just under 2:1), and his pfr I think there was little to no FE to speak of. Yes, a race would be fine at this point but it seems unlikely he'd raise 99 or lower, and even though its certainly possible I still don't think he's folding anything. Another reason being that since he seemed like a solid player, opening from that position with my short stack in the BB he had to see the possibility of my shoving over his open and been comfortable enough with his hand that he'd call it, no?

[cdipierr 0]

Really given the stack sizes, pot odds (my shove giving him just under 2:1), and his pfr I think there was little to no FE to speak of. Yes, a race would be fine at this point but it seems unlikely he'd raise 99 or lower, and even though its certainly possible I still don't think he's folding anything. Another reason being that since he seemed like a solid player, opening from that position with my short stack in the BB he had to see the possibility of my shoving over his open and been comfortable enough with his hand that he'd call it, no?

No. You're analyzing it way too deeply here. Not all BBs are going to shove over him. And again even if you think he never folds here, you're only don't want to see AK, AA, KK, QQ. There's enough else in his range that a push is still fine. It's too bad if he had AK or KK or whatever here, but a 3x raise in MP doesn't guarantee he has that no matter what his stats are. If you want empirical examples, there was a guy running 8/0 over like 50 hands in a SnG I played the other night. He got down to about your level and open shoved AJ. Just because there are stats doesn't mean he's as tight as you think.

[jmbreslin 0]

No. You're analyzing it way too deeply here. Not all BBs are going to shove over him. And again even if you think he never folds here, you're only don't want to see AK, AA, KK, QQ. There's enough else in his range that a push is still fine.

This is where we disagree. I think AK and QQ-AA make up a huge part of his range based on the info we have. Add to that the fact that we're also behind other pairs (albeit only slightly behind) and we're in pretty bad shape against his range overall.

If you want empirical examples, there was a guy running 8/0 over like 50 hands in a SnG I played the other night. He got down to about your level and open shoved AJ. Just because there are stats doesn't mean he's as tight as you think.

Yes, but a guy running at 8/0 over 50 hands might have just been card dead and the AJ was the best raising hand he had seen the entire time. That can happen quite frequently in STTs. Think about it this way: a VPIP of 8 over 50 hands is only 4 hands.Also, the situation here is different because villain isn't a shortstack pushing his chips in. He's open raising with both a bigstack and a shortstack still to act behind him.

[cdipierr 0]

There's noway I believe that a 3x raise from MP2 guarantees AK or QQ+ even if he's 21/6. If you want to flip it around, if you were MP2 and you had AJ, TT or JJ are you telling me you fold or open limp? Personally I think 99+, AJ+ is a fine range to give MP2. As such, we have a 42.7% EV according to Stove assuming we have no FE. I guess you can make an argument that's a fold, but given an M of 6.9, it's pretty nitty to be folding AQ here.

[potatoman 0]

Against those stats, his position and chip stack, I'm probably folding. I want to be first in. FE is huge at this stage, and I just don't see much here. Shoving is probably not terrible, but it seems like the times that I do stack off here, they have AK+ a very high percentage of the time.

[qnshustler 0]

If you want empirical examples, there was a guy running 8/0 over like 50 hands in a SnG I played the other night. He got down to about your level and open shoved AJ. Just because there are stats doesn't mean he's as tight as you think.

Yes, but a guy running at 8/0 over 50 hands might have just been card dead and the AJ was the best raising hand he had seen the entire time. That can happen quite frequently in STTs. Think about it this way: a VPIP of 8 over 50 hands is only 4 hands.Also, the situation here is different because villain isn't a shortstack pushing his chips in. He's open raising with both a bigstack and a shortstack still to act behind him.

Yeah and when you consider an effective M in the red zone at that point (if he was at my level) it shouldn't be a surprise to see him open shove AJ no matter how tight he had been prior.Basically I see its a tough decision with valid enough arguments going both ways from you guys. cdipierr I think your def right about his range in your last comment and it could be being nitty with a low M but I think it is borderline.