Bottom Set On A Monotone Flop

[mtdesmoines 3]

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 5 playersThe Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History ConverterCO: $48.25BTN: $99.10Hero (SB): $136.05BB: $49.15UTG: $29.60Pre Flop: Hero is SB with 2 2 2 folds, BTN raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.25, 1 foldFlop: ($3.50) 2 9 7 (2 players)Hero bets $2.75, BTN calls $2.75Turn: ($9.00) K (2 players)Hero bets $6.75, BTN raises to $13.50, Hero calls $6.75River: ($36.00) 4 (2 players)Hero checks, BTN bets $18, Hero calls $18Villain is relatively new to the table, 33/29/7 over 28 hands.I shove turn if we're 100bb deep. Is river a b/f or c/c good against this opponent?

Button raised PF, called the flop bet, raised the turn, and half potted the river. This is the behavior of AdKx at $50 NL. You told the villain you were strong on the flop and turn. Why isn't the villain betting more on the river for greater value if he has a flush? I think a raise to $40 is payable for villain and a good value bet for us.

[KingJames 11]

Raising the river is good to me because 1. value against 2 pair, or AdKx, KdXx, etc2. No showdown if villain folds; it's nice to not give away info when possibleHis button raise and flat of our flop bet makes me think he has one diamond and one pair

[Syous 0]

SCS:You just named a wide enough range that could call a c/r.hint that everyone seems to be missing out on:what would you do if you were villain and you had a flush

[Sheiky 0]

what would you do if you were villain and you had a flush

Well I don't think many people on FCP would flat the flop and min raise the turn, but then again I don't think many people on FCP would play any hand like that. But I'm assuming you're hinting that no one would play a flush that way?

[SCS 0]

SCS:You just named a wide enough range that could call a c/r.hint that everyone seems to be missing out on:what would you do if you were villain and you had a flush

I guess I disagree with villain calling a c/r with a wide enough range that we beat.Maybe someone can pokerstove the numbers. I'd do it, but I'm at my work computer.

[Syous 0]

I guess I disagree with villain calling a c/r with a wide enough range that we beat.Maybe someone can pokerstove the numbers. I'd do it, but I'm at my work computer.

i feel like i'm talking to a ****ing brick wallLook, I'm trying to illustrate a point. Let's pause on the c/r river line for a bit. I have a reason to believe we're ahead and I just hinted at it. Let's go through that part, discuss and debate it, and then talk about the river

[BaseJester 1]

hint that everyone seems to be missing out on:what would you do if you were villain and you had a flush

If I were the villain, apparently I'd play the whole hand like a donkey.Therefore, the hero should shove and the villain will pay him off.

[Syous 0]

If I were the villain, apparently I'd play the whole hand like a donkey.Therefore, the hero should shove and the villain will pay him off.

good. Play all your hands that way and miss max value smartass*if you really knew your villain, it's actually a really great level to pull this off but you need the history and the reads to do so.

[BaseJester 1]

good. Play all your hands that way and miss max value smartass

I'm not going to try to guess your point in this thread. ****, yes I am. Your amazing observation is that he didn't bet very much on the river; therefore, he doesn't have a flush.

*if you really knew your villain, it's actually a really great level to pull this off but you need the history and the reads to do so.

Pull what off? Shoving the river? That's the way to play it if we check/raise. It looks the most like the draw missed.

[Syous 0]

I'm not going to try to guess your point in this thread. ****, yes I am. Your amazing observation is that he didn't bet very much on the river; therefore, he doesn't have a flush.Pull what off? Shoving the river? That's the way to play it if we check/raise. It looks the most like the draw missed.

GETTING CLOSER

[NoBBiR 0]

i feel like i'm talking to a ****ing brick wallLook, I'm trying to illustrate a point. Let's pause on the c/r river line for a bit. I have a reason to believe we're ahead and I just hinted at it. Let's go through that part, discuss and debate it, and then talk about the river

good. Play all your hands that way and miss max value smartass*if you really knew your villain, it's actually a really great level to pull this off but you need the history and the reads to do so.

GETTING CLOSER

You know, I'm sure you mean well, and I really do appreciate the life that forum has suddenly received over the past couple days (a lot of it from you) - but seriously: you're talking to 90% of the people here like children and playing guessing games.Me thinks you're a bit more mature than you're putting on. I think you should try to act like it.

[Syous 0]

You know, I'm sure you mean well, and I really do appreciate the life that forum has suddenly received over the past couple days (a lot of it from you) - but seriously: you're talking to 90% of the people here like children and playing guessing games.Me thinks you're a bit more mature than you're putting on. I think you should try to act like it.

that's fine. I am playing guessing games. Why? Because I think people should think harder and try to be more observant. If I explain every single detail every time, you won't learn as much and you won't develop the habit of really analyzing a hand as well asking questions. This way we can start thinking more critically together. The harder you think, the more you get out of it.

[Yoda 1]

My initial thought is that the fishy part was the minraise on turn. If he had the flush I figure he either flats to keep trapping (as a lot or most lower limit players do) or raise significantly more to try and get a lot of money in and setup a big river bet. the minraise screams 'omg I hit the K and have to raise but oh crap I hope the other guy doesn't have a flush...and if the 4flush hits on river I can fold to a big bet'.

[Sheiky 0]

that's fine. I am playing guessing games. Why? Because I think people should think harder and try to be more observant. If I explain every single detail every time, you won't learn as much and you won't develop the habit of really analyzing a hand as well asking questions. This way we can start thinking more critically together. The harder you think, the more you get out of it.

Well yeh, but I think you're acting like there's something amazingly hard to spot that we all haven't spotted yet, which is making everyone a bit confused, as we can all read the HH and see how he played the hand. We're not 'missing' anything, we just aren't discussing what you think is important to discuss. I'm not entirely sure you can say that without reads a 33/29/7 $50NL player wouldn't play a flush/higher set this way, but at least I think that's what you're trying to make us think about.

[Syous 0]

Well yeh, but I think you're acting like there's something amazingly hard to spot that we all haven't spotted yet, which is making everyone a bit confused, as we can all read the HH and see how he played the hand. We're not 'missing' anything, we just aren't discussing what you think is important to discuss. I'm not entirely sure you can say that without reads a 33/29/7 $50NL player wouldn't play a flush/higher set this way, but at least I think that's what you're trying to make us think about.

it's not a big thing to spot. I think it's completely obvious but no one's talkinga bout it

[Dictius 0]

The villain just called on the flop. If I were the villain and had the flush I would likely raise the flop to get some value before action killing cards / scare cards come, like a 4th diamond or board pairing. But who knows, villain may be all tricky/trappy like so it's possible that he has flopped a flush but more likely he has a single diamond trying to draw out or has some kind of one pair/two pair hand that doesn't want to raise because he won't know what to do when he's 3bet.After we bet/call a raise on the turn, it should be pretty clear to the villain we like our hand and are probably calling a river bet. Why would we call the turn if we aren't going to call a blank river right?So then we check the river, most likely with the intention of check/calling a bet. If the villain had a flush, he knows we like our hand and it looks like we are just trying to get to showdown, it is likely the villain would bet more than half pot for value since if we are going to call a half pot bet we are going to call a 3/4 to full pot bet also.It seems more likely that villain is trying to get thin value with his pair of AA/AK/two pair or something.How's my logic?

[BaseJester 1]

it's not a big thing to spot. I think it's completely obvious but no one's talkinga bout it

I thought it was completely obvious why check-raise/fold was bad, but Dictius laid it right out for you instead of leaving it as an exercise for the reader.

[Sheiky 0]

I thought it was completely obvious why check-raise/fold was bad, but Dictius laid it right out for you instead of leaving it as an exercise for the reader.

I think Syous said earlier in the thread he mis read stack sizes when he opted for raise-folding the river.

[BaseJester 1]

I think Syous said earlier in the thread he mis read stack sizes when he opted for raise-folding the river.

And now he'd like us to sign up for his newsletter on being observant.It's like rain on your wedding day or something.

[Sheiky 0]

And now he'd like us to sign up for his newsletter on being observant.It's like rain on your wedding day or something.

AH, but were you not also as unobservant for not noticing his lack of observancy?

[BaseJester 1]

AH, but were you not also as unobservant for not noticing his lack of observancy?

No, I observed his lack of obersvancy. Your observance lacks the observancy of the relevence of my observancy.

[NoBBiR 0]

that's fine. I am playing guessing games. Why? Because I think people should think harder and try to be more observant. If I explain every single detail every time, you won't learn as much and you won't develop the habit of really analyzing a hand as well asking questions. This way we can start thinking more critically together. The harder you think, the more you get out of it.

Well that's great. But isn't that the point of the forum, when someone notices something others don't, they point it out? I mean, sure you can ask people a few times for something you notice that is important to be noticed and after they try and fail to see what you're talking about a few times tell them. But is it really become about them learning anything when you continue to talk down to them and in a round-about way, call them blind after the 5th or 6th time you ask the same question? I don't really think so.

No, I observed his lack of obersvancy. Your observance lacks the observancy of the relevence of my observancy.

*head asplodes*

[Syous 0]

The villain just called on the flop. If I were the villain and had the flush I would likely raise the flop to get some value before action killing cards / scare cards come, like a 4th diamond or board pairing. But who knows, villain may be all tricky/trappy like so it's possible that he has flopped a flush but more likely he has a single diamond trying to draw out or has some kind of one pair/two pair hand that doesn't want to raise because he won't know what to do when he's 3bet.After we bet/call a raise on the turn, it should be pretty clear to the villain we like our hand and are probably calling a river bet. Why would we call the turn if we aren't going to call a blank river right?So then we check the river, most likely with the intention of check/calling a bet. If the villain had a flush, he knows we like our hand and it looks like we are just trying to get to showdown, it is likely the villain would bet more than half pot for value since if we are going to call a half pot bet we are going to call a 3/4 to full pot bet also.It seems more likely that villain is trying to get thin value with his pair of AA/AK/two pair or something.How's my logic?

I love it all. best post in the thread. Everyone keep hating on me but please glorify himThe biggest thing people kept overlooking was bet sizing. Would villain really minraise a flush and then halfpot the river? That's all I wanted. I knew someone had to pick up on this sooner or later and you did (not on the spot but close enough). If anyone else did and I missed it, sorry. I guess i'm pretty unobservant : )There are some fish that will certainly minraise the nuts however I really believe that fish or not, we're ahead of his range big time when he only minraises and halfpots. A 3/4 pot bet and I'm actually really hating to call (although I do in this situation).The river c/r ai line I was recommending is most certainly thin. This is a pretty interesting hand overall. I'm a bigger fan of c/c vs donk betting river. I'll post a hand soon where I'm in somewhat of a similar spot and decide that donking is the best line.Because villain is a fish, one line we could contemplate using is the cr minraise. He's probably NEVER folding tp if we pull that. There is a very big problem if we c/r mr. What if he min3bets? Do you really want to fold for $18 more in this pot? However if u call and are wrong, realize you've now wasted I think 72bbs on this line? lolkeep it up dictius. Putting yourself in villain's shoes and logically working out what he's doing will help you improve tremendously fast.

[NoBBiR 0]

I love it all. best post in the thread. Everyone keep hating on me but please glorify him

No one is hating on you, but I think it might be a good idea to work on your people skills a bit Everyone loves engaging strat questions, but no one likes to be talked down to just because they're not getting what it is you're talking about instantly. Very valid point about his bet sizing though. I just dunno how much stock I put into someone's bet sizing who c/minraises. Usually those are the people who have no idea what they're doing.

The biggest thing people kept overlooking was bet sizing. Would villain really minraise a flush and then halfpot the river? That's all I wanted. I knew someone had to pick up on this sooner or later and you did (not on the spot but close enough). If anyone else did and I missed it, sorry. I guess i'm pretty unobservant : )There are some fish that will certainly minraise the nuts however I really believe that fish or not, we're ahead of his range big time when he only minraises and halfpots. A 3/4 pot bet and I'm actually really hating to call (although I do in this situation).The river c/r ai line I was recommending is most certainly thin. This is a pretty interesting hand overall. I'm a bigger fan of c/c vs donk betting river. I'll post a hand soon where I'm in somewhat of a similar spot and decide that donking is the best line.Because villain is a fish, one line we could contemplate using is the cr minraise. He's probably NEVER folding tp if we pull that. There is a very big problem if we c/r mr. What if he min3bets? Do you really want to fold for $18 more in this pot? However if u call and are wrong, realize you've now wasted I think 72bbs on this line? lolkeep it up dictius. Putting yourself in villain's shoes and logically working out what he's doing will help you improve tremendously fast.

Wouldn't donking into this river be bad with almost any hand that has a decent amount of showdown value but are not overly strong (two pair/set/TPTK)? What hands could we hold on this river where donking would be correct other than flushes?

[David_Nicoson 1]

I think this is a king with a big diamond a lot. Not that I would play it that way, but I see a lot of people take that approach. They're not sure if they're raising for value or not, so they just sort of compromise with the min raise. So I'd consider reraising the turn.

Button raised PF, called the flop bet, raised the turn, and half potted the river. This is the behavior of AdKx at $50 NL. You told the villain you were strong on the flop and turn. Why isn't the villain betting more on the river for greater value if he has a flush? I think a raise to $40 is payable for villain and a good value bet for us.

Well I don't think many people on FCP would flat the flop and min raise the turn, but then again I don't think many people on FCP would play any hand like that. But I'm assuming you're hinting that no one would play a flush that way?

I'm not going to try to guess your point in this thread. ****, yes I am. Your amazing observation is that he didn't bet very much on the river; therefore, he doesn't have a flush.

My initial thought is that the fishy part was the minraise on turn. If he had the flush I figure he either flats to keep trapping (as a lot or most lower limit players do) or raise significantly more to try and get a lot of money in and setup a big river bet. the minraise screams 'omg I hit the K and have to raise but oh crap I hope the other guy doesn't have a flush...and if the 4flush hits on river I can fold to a big bet'.

it's not a big thing to spot. I think it's completely obvious but no one's talkinga bout it

The biggest thing people kept overlooking was bet sizing. Would villain really minraise a flush and then halfpot the river?

You, sir, lose this thread. Do you see why?