Make An Aggressive Play On The Bubble?

[HighwayStar 8]

Lost the HH but situation450 places paid, 470 people left.I'm currently sitting about 30th in chips with a sizeable stack. Been taking quite a few pots unchallenged recently and in any showdowns in the last hours I've shown down good hands.Table has been super tight generally.Blinds are 500/1k .Hero - CO - 65k BB - 40k - 2nd largest at table.Folded to me, 8d 7d, I raise it up to 3k. The BB calls.Flop:Kd 8 4d.So I've picked up mid pair and FD - what's your move here?It's checked, I bet 4.5k as a continuation and get quite quickly called.Turn is a blank , checked - what do you bet here.I figure he has KJ+ or possibly a flush draw - seems unlikely due to my flush draw, can I get him off this due to the impending money bubble? Don't see this being a set, I think I'd have had resistance by now.1.Put him to a decision for all his chips?2.Check?3.Raise 1/3-1/2 pot?

[craiger 0]

I would take the free card in this spot. He's the only player who can put a big dent in your stack, don't risk it.Any 8 or 7 and you will probably beat him, as well as any diamond. If he misses and checks the river, you can get a cheap showdown UI.

[Al Smooth 0]

peel one off, you believe you've got any 7/8/diamond so why risk being put to a decision if he crai on the turn. His snap call on the flop and check on the turn basically should buy him the next two cards unless you've got a set...and it's very possible he's got one already with his line.

[NonZeroPossibility 0]

How could this line be a set for the Villain with a flush draw out there, Al? Man, your advice is just plain bad today.Villain c/c on the flop and checks the turn. There's diamonds out there, why the hell would anyone play a set like this? It looks more like villain has a flush draw as well or possibly A8. I don't like a push because he only calls with something that has you crushed. I like a bet in this spot, about 1/3 to 1/2 the pot. Maybe more tho because I just don't see this guy having a set or KJ+ in the BB and checking the flop and turn. He's gotta have either a better flush draw, a weak K or a better kicker on his 8. Yeah, I'd bet something here.Craiger's advice isn't bad either tho. I could actually go either way, but lean towards betting.

[NankerPhelge 0]

If it's a set or top pair then he's played it very strangely. Looks like a flush draw to me. Bet about 2/3 the pot.

[Al Smooth 0]

How could this line be a set for the Villain with a flush draw out there, Al? Man, your advice is just plain bad today.Villain c/c on the flop and checks the turn. There's diamonds out there, why the hell would anyone play a set like this? It looks more like villain has a flush draw as well or possibly A8. I don't like a push because he only calls with something that has you crushed. I like a bet in this spot, about 1/3 to 1/2 the pot. Maybe more tho because I just don't see this guy having a set or KJ+ in the BB and checking the flop and turn. He's gotta have either a better flush draw, a weak K or a better kicker on his 8. Yeah, I'd bet something here.Craiger's advice isn't bad either tho. I could actually go either way, but lean towards betting.

So by your estimation we're behind at the moment in the pot on the bubble...and you suggest making a weak lead of less than half the pot with a hand that pretty much has to fold to a shove with only one card to go? Doesn't make sense...CONTROL THE POT SIZE!!!Just a question...what is your line if the villain shoves your 1/3 pot bet on the turn???*There's 16k in the pot at this particular point and the villain has about 32k remaining*

[HighwayStar 8]

I was 80% sure he had KQ/KJ. Wondering if there was a bet that could get him off that. I don't think that 1/3-1/2 pot is good, you are pot committing him with essentially a draw (albeit a good one ~30%)In this occasion I actually put him all in, he went into the tank for most of his time bank and eventually called with KQ, the river was the fantastic Qd. I honestly thought he would fold it.In retrospect I think checking is definitely the correct play, you are getting a free draw to the winning hand with 9 diamonds + 2 8s + 3 7's = 14 outs (probably) and you can reevaluate the river if you miss.I was just trying to abuse the bubble with the shove but it was probably a little reckless given he could really make a hole in my stack.Do you think a reraise is an option if you check the turn. The river is an blank and he bets into you?Probably far too aggressive but I think that play looks like a better hand than top pair played throughout.Probably thinking far too much for a $5R tournament.

[Al Smooth 0]

I was 80% sure he had KQ/KJ. Wondering if there was a bet that could get him off that. I don't think that 1/3-1/2 pot is good, you are pot committing him with essentially a draw (albeit a good one ~30%)In this occasion I actually put him all in, he went into the tank for most of his time bank and eventually called with KQ, the river was the fantastic Qd. I honestly thought he would fold it.In retrospect I think checking is definitely the correct play, you are getting a free draw to the winning hand with 9 diamonds + 2 8s + 3 7's = 14 outs (probably) and you can reevaluate the river if you miss.I was just trying to abuse the bubble with the shove but it was probably a little reckless given he could really make a hole in my stack.Do you think a reraise is an option if you check the turn. The river is an blank and he bets into you?Probably far too aggressive but I think that play looks like a better hand than top pair played throughout.Probably thinking far too much for a $5R tournament.

It's hard to correctly utilize multi level plays vs opponents who only think on one level. Your opponent was only thinking, "I have top pair good kicker, how can I get all in here?" I would have check called his whole stack to the river, and may have come over the top of you on the turn had you lead for 1/2 pot. The point for me lately has been to minimize tough decisions against unpredictable opponents, and sometimes that just isn't possible...but in this situation it was.

[NonZeroPossibility 0]

So by your estimation we're behind at the moment in the pot on the bubble...and you suggest making a weak lead of less than half the pot with a hand that pretty much has to fold to a shove with only one card to go? Doesn't make sense...CONTROL THE POT SIZE!!!Just a question...what is your line if the villain shoves your 1/3 pot bet on the turn???*There's 16k in the pot at this particular point and the villain has about 32k remaining*

A weak K or A8 should be folding their hands to a bet on the turn especially this close to the bubble. It's what we call a semi-bluff. That's why I like a bet here. If Villain can call or raise that, then I probably shut it down. I think 8k would be a good bet here and if he pushes for 24k more, then ya, we can fold. But KQ took a weird line here, hard to put someone on that hand when they check the flop and turn. If it was K9 or worse, he should probably be folding to a bet so why not take a stab?But I could go either way on betting or checking. That's why I said that in my first post.So Al, you never explained why you think Villain could likely have a set already.... KK?... don't think so.... 88?... well we have an 8.... So it's likely he has exactly 44? C'mon guy.