TJ_Eckleburg

Very well trained. wa-PISHHHHHHH!

I'm sorry if y'all think it's crap, but I like the 64+64+64+64+64 scoring method. That makes the final four teams you pick IMPORTANT and frankly, if you miss the picks that late, you deserve to lose. Especially when you're picking before the tournament starts.You can set up yahoo brackets for free. You can create your own group, and it even scores the picks for you in real time (but with the 64+64.... method).The reason this method should be favored is that it keeps you focused on the long term, which is more important anyway. Nobody cares that Butler and Nevada made the sweet 16. What ma

Thank you for the support and generally kind words. It sounds like you know a thing or two about MTT's also. I hope my post can supplement that success into even greater success.And thanks for the reading material. I'm a junkie for online poker information, and I'll definitely check it out.

I realize that most of the time when you get called down on blindstealing raises with weak or suited aces, you're already behind. However, the good thing is, especially with aces, is that you don't have to HIT an ace for it to be a good flop for you. A rag-board with two to your suit is a great flop for you, and it's a board you can play. Furthermore, if you got called down by a dominating hand like AK, he'd still have to be a little retiscent to bet out, fearing you have a pocket pair. Plus, if you get called by a premium hand like QQ or KK, you're ahead when you hit your ace (even though

The idea is the difference in strength between the hand you can raise with and call a raise with. It's most applicable to tournaments. You can make a blind-stealing raise in late position with QJ off. But, if you're in the same position with QJ off and an early position raiser makes it a pot-sized bet to go, there's no way you can call that with QJ off.The "width" of the discrepancy in strength is what Sklansky calls The Gap Concept. At some points in the tournament the gap is wider than others. Like, in the first hour of the tournament the gap is small. But towards the final table, you'

I'm a junkie when it comes to online updates of tournaments played live. I can tell you, both as a seasoned Partypoker tournament veteran and a religious follower of live tournaments, there is a LOT of poker to be played.At the end of day 3 of the LA Poker Classic in Commerce, Alan Goehring was comfortably in 1st in chips, Ted Forrest was in 12th, Andy Bloch was in 35th, and Erick Lindgren was in 6th with about 60 left. I made a bet, getting 8:1 odds, with a friend of mine that the top 3 in chips would not make the final table and the three guys I picked, Forrest, Bloch, and Lindgren, would.

If you were at a 6-handed table, which all WPT final tables are, then the odds that I calculate are 40.832, or 41 to 1. Perhaps that explains the discrepancy.

Quick guess is 221:9, but I could be wrong.Not trying to be an over-correcting douchebag, but here's how to figure it. 1 divided by [(4 aces)/(52 unseen cards)] x [(3 aces)/(51 unseen cards)] = odds of 220.999 to 1. The number of people at the table doesn't matter. This is the odds of just getting dealt a rank specific pocket pair. The odds of getting 2-2 are also 221:1

Well, if I'm right in my methodology above, which I believe I am, then the odds of running KK to AA in a 4 handed table are 68:1. To clarify though, this doesn't mean that every 68 hands you'll run KK into AA at a 4 handed table. This means that every 69 times you get KK in a 4 handed table, ONE time will someone else have AA (disregarding variance). The $1,000 tourney and Foxwoods 2002 is irrelevant, I'm pretty sure. But, all that can be definitely said is that the poker gods shat on you that day, for sure.

(actually, I heard it was 23:1, but I'll do the math myself to see)Well, I did the math, and I got 22.68 to 1. That rounds to 23:1, so maybe I'm right after all.

aces are like 220 to 1Yes, that's true, the odds of getting dealt any rank-specific pocket pair are 220.99936:1, or 221:1. The question, however, is what are the odds of getting dealt AA when two kings are out of the deck in a 10 handed table.

I believe so. KK is a favorite over any other hand preflop except AA, and you're only behind when it is AA. Every time you're getting re-raised all-in with KK you are a favorite, and that makes it profitable enough to be correct calling even considering the times it IS AA. This is even more correct if I'm wrong about the probability of having KK and AA dealt in the same hand.

This is bugging me, so I'm going to try to figure it out. Well, the probability of the next two cards of the deck being AA is equivalent to the odds of being dealt K A K A off the top of the deck, so there are [(4 aces)/(50 unseen cards)] x [(3 aces)/(49 unseen cards)] = .004898. That is DEFINITELY the odds of getting dealt KK to AA heads up, 204:1.Here's where it gets tricky to me. I think I should multiply that number by 9 other hands dealt in to figure the probability. This will tell us the probability that AA are a two-card pair within the next 9 hands dealt in, to equal a probability

I can't imagine that that's true.Well, I'm not very sure of it, but do you think that's way too common or way too uncommon, for someone else to have AA when you have KK?

I've read all of the articles on Hellmuth's website, in addition to Annie Duke's, Howard Lederer's, Dave Ulliot's, et. al., and they aren't updated nearly as often as Negreanu's. I guess that's why I spend a lot of time here.

I remember reading somewhere once that if you get dealt KK in a 10-handed table, the odds are 25:1 that someone else has AA. I'll take those odds, and the odds of KK against any other hand all in. KK and AA are the only two hands I'll call an all-in with at a cash game, because their expected value is an order of magnitude higher than other hands, even QQ. You've got to think long run, you won't keep getting douched like this.

You can count yourself as part of the FCP forum that helps people, aseem. In all the posts of yours I've seen, I've never once seen you speak disrespectfully, and you've always tried to be genuinely helpful. On behalf of the FCP forum, thanks, aseem.thanks,not aseem

Don't forget what matters is your NUT outs. In this situation, if you hit any of the 4 gutshot cards, then you do have the nuts. But, if the flop was Ac 7c 5h, then you can only calculate that as 3 outs, not 4. The 6c is not a nut out because it makes a flush the nuts, not your gutshot.

I'm reasonably new to the forum and have only been posting for a week. I've been lurking a lot longer, and I really respect Smash's opinion on a LOT of poker related things. I think he's a very intelligent player and everybody in the forum, myself included, can learn from his experience in poker.That having been said, Smash is also BY FAR the leading poster on this website. As the most visible person posting that's not named Daniel Negreanu, I think that entails a little bit of responsibility. The kids look up to you, Smash. Keep doing what you've been doing in poker, and try to help set

Robert Varkonyi won the 2002 World Series of Poker on QT, so he probably disagrees with you that nothing good ever came from it (:

My first tournament win is almost EXACTLY like you described. It was on Partypoker in a 30 dollar MTT (650 people) and I got paid 4,400 dollars (it was back in their old MTT payout days).I realize some of the people in this thread have read my very long post about multi-table tournaments. I'm not trying to be an advertisement prostitute, but I really am looking for as much genuine feedback as possible. If anybody who hasn't looked at the thread entitled "My system for multitable tournaments" under the "Poker Strategy" section, it really would mean a lot to me if you could, please. Thanks i

I think it goes to show that everybody feels strongly about something and people can say some hurtful or offensive things. So let's try to keep discussions more to poker, and everybody respect everyone else's beliefs.That having been said...LIBERALS SUCK!!!Just kidding... just kidding...

I think the methodology of the questions is incorrect. I think you need to look to see if you have any SYMPTOMS of problem gambling (i.e. being broke) before you ask yourself the 20 questions, rather than just asking the questions to anyone that plays. I wonder how many questions Smash would honestly answer yes to.

This is what I was seeking to find in this forum: other long-run-successful tournament players, and what their opinions on tournament poker are. I haven't really played pokerstars in quite some time, because Partypoker had been lucrative enough for me. But I would like to try some rebuy tournaments, so I think I'll give it a shot. Thanks again for the input.

Early in a tournament, small pocket pairs are GREAT stack-building hands. Sets pay off better than any other hand in hold'em because they're powerful and concealed.I don't even bother raising with TT on down in the first hour (but I also play super-tight in the first hour). No set, no bet, and if you do hit a set, you can usually get a lot for it.The odds against flopping a set with any pocket pair is 7.5:1. Now, you'll rarely get 7.5:1 in true odds on a preflop call, but you can get more than that implied. I don't like playing against a stiff raise heads up, but if there's a middlish or p