Quick Maths Question Regarding Shoving And How Often Villain Must Fold

[Jam-Fly 8]

Basically, the situation was in a deep stack tourney last night. I had AT, in the BB, and the button made a standard raise (3xBB I believe). He had like 30BB stack. I had 100BBs or so in my my stack. I pushed with the AT, and he called off with A8s. I felt this play was -EV (as it turns out, it wasn't because his calling range was alot looser than I expected). Basically, this is the maths I used to analyze the hand after, is this right? btw, I did this analysis yesterday, and this post is just from what I remembered from the analysisWhen he calls, I'm 30% against his range (I used PokerStove and gave him a range of 88+, AT+ I think) (30% of the pot would be 36k)When he folds, I pick up 10.4kSo I figured, when he calls, my equity is 36k. When he folds my equity is 10.4kI figure 70% of the time, he folds, 30% of the time, he folds. So(.7x10.4k)+(.3x36k)=18.08kHis stack was ~60k I think, so basically, I have to invest 60k to have equity of 18.08k???I figured the push was a mistake (assuming he had a much tighter calling range than he had, because at the time that's what I thought - ie without being results orientated assuming I knew he could call with the A8s), but it doesn't make sense for it to be this much of a mistake. I'm sure the answer is pretty obvious and I'll realise it when I see the solution. (also it doens't help that I'm v tired now, and very tired when I did the original analysis)Thanks

[Aces Rule 0]

You risked 30% of your stack to protect 1% for a potential reward of 4.5% (the pf raise, BB & SB) if he folds. If he calls you're risking 30% of your stack for about even money - with an AT! I don't need a calculator to figure out this is -EV.If the Btn is stealing a lot and you want to make a stand I don't see the risk/reward of a shove (unless it's a short stack that doesn't hurt mine that much) when a flat call and playing it out post flop is less risky and usually more profitable or at least less costly. Often when I have what I think is a steal on I just flat call and leadout on the flop (about half the pot) regardless of what comes down. Now your risking only 6% (flat call and leadout bet) to find out if the Btn has something or not and usually he folds b/c he either had nothing or missed the board - and it works a lot of the time even if I've got natta!! About the only time I would prefer a re-raise preflop is when I have a legit re-raise hand - Aces, Kings, Queens and maybe AK but it's usually not a shove unless the stealer is short stacked and even then I will look to re-raising only enough to get him pot commited - AT does not qualify for a re-raise preflop in my game. Of course if he plays back I'm done with the hand but that doesn't happen very often.Sometimes you get real lucky and get to send a message as well. For example a few weeks ago I had a consistant position player in the CO to my BB who I had a stack advantage of about 2-1 and this time he's first in the pot with a 3xbb pf raise. I flat call with 8-4s with the intention of leading out regardless of what the flop brings! The flop is a miracle 9-4-4. I leadout half the pot and he re-raises 3x my bet. I just call and ck the turn which he shoves all-in - of course I call and he turns over JJ. Big surprise for the CO but the message it sent the rest of the table was a huge bonus - no-one came after my blinds for quite a while!!

[copernicus 0]

Im having trouble following exactly what the stack sizes are here, but forgetting the math, why would you be pushing against stacks that are 30bb deep when you are 100bb deep and hes shown some interest in the pot? You should be playing post flop poker with stacks this deep.

[TravisG 0]

Im having trouble following exactly what the stack sizes are here, but forgetting the math, why would you be pushing against stacks that are 30bb deep when you are 100bb deep and hes shown some interest in the pot? You should be playing post flop poker with stacks this deep.

exactly.if you want value out of your AT here just reraise to a smaller amount, don't shove. restealing is for smaller stacks where you have to pick you spots preflop to get to chips, because postflop play isn't really possible anymore and u usually can't just wait for aces all the time. the reason why deep tournament poker is preflop poker is not because nobody wants to play postflop, but because they usually cant. postflop is so much better because there can be so much more edges for you postflop than you could ever find preflop.

[Jam-Fly 8]

I don't rly like flat calling with the AT there, it plays pretty poorly oop. And if he raises 3xBB, I reraise to 9xBB, and he pushes (looking back, he probs had about 20-25xBB, coz my push was like 7x his raise), I'm getting way over 2-1. I hate being in positions where I either have to fold getting 2.5-1 or call off with AT.Anyway, it's not neccessarily the play itself I want commentary on, I want the maths you should use to analyze this situation. For example...BB 100kSB 50kBtn 25kblinds 500-1k/100 -- 9 handedfolded to button who raises to 3kSB foldsBB has ATBB pushes all inSB's calling range is 88+, AT+Is this play +EV or -EV, and how much equity do you gain/lose by pushing.

[TravisG 0]

I don't rly like flat calling with the AT there, it plays pretty poorly oop. And if he raises 3xBB, I reraise to 9xBB, and he pushes (looking back, he probs had about 20-25xBB, coz my push was like 7x his raise), I'm getting way over 2-1. I hate being in positions where I either have to fold getting 2.5-1 or call off with AT.Anyway, it's not neccessarily the play itself I want commentary on, I want the maths you should use to analyze this situation. For example...BB 100kSB 50kBtn 25kblinds 500-1k/100 -- 9 handedfolded to button who raises to 3kSB foldsBB has ATBB pushes all inSB's calling range is 88+, AT+Is this play +EV or -EV, and how much equity do you gain/lose by pushing.

OK I can't tell you the exact numbers but I'll try to tell you what it needs for this to be +EV:Assuming buttons raising range is ATC, he will have 88+, AT+ about 8% of the time which means he will fold 92% of the time. You basically risk 24k (his stack - 1k that you've already invested) to win 4.5k which is 24:4.5 or about 5.3:1. you need to make him fold about 85,86,87%? of the time which is already marginally +EV since he folds 92% of the times.that does not take showdown equity into account. you have 31% equity against his calling range for a 50k pot, so you can basically win something like 16k. now don't tell me where i got that from, but my math brain somehow tells me that you can just add 8% of that 16k to the "preflop" pot and calculate from there. so 8% of 16k = 1280. So preflop you risk 24k to win 5.6280k which is about 4.2:1 which lowers his "must-fold" to about 80, which makes this move marginally +EV overall.now the last part just shot out of my mind, i have no idea about those probabilty things.if you wait for cop, he'll explain it with more straight forward formula, but i think you should get it from my point of view too.

[Jam-Fly 8]

OK I can't tell you the exact numbers but I'll try to tell you what it needs for this to be +EV:Assuming buttons raising range is ATC, he will have 88+, AT+ about 8% of the time which means he will fold 92% of the time. You basically risk 24k (his stack - 1k that you've already invested) to win 4.5k which is 24:4.5 or about 5.3:1. you need to make him fold about 85,86,87%? of the time which is already marginally +EV since he folds 92% of the times.that does not take showdown equity into account. you have 31% equity against his calling range for a 50k pot, so you can basically win something like 16k. now don't tell me where i got that from, but my math brain somehow tells me that you can just add 8% of that 16k to the "preflop" pot and calculate from there. so 8% of 16k = 1280. So preflop you risk 24k to win 5.6280k which is about 4.2:1 which lowers his "must-fold" to about 80, which makes this move marginally +EV overall.now the last part just shot out of my mind, i have no idea about those probabilty things.if you wait for cop, he'll explain it with more straight forward formula, but i think you should get it from my point of view too.

Yeah that makes sense alright

[MovingIn 0]

Shoves with such deep stacks are often read as bluffs and will often get called by a wide range of hands.Don't shove with 100BB unless you want a call and know you'll get one.Much of your stack will be built from pots won post-flop. Don't be afraid to play post-flop.