Nut Flush Draw, Pushed Into On Flop.

[AKProdigy 0]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)UTG (t1660)UTG+1 (t3245)MP1 (t800)MP2 (t1443)CO (t2242)Button (t1965)SB (t2305)Hero (t2900)Preflop: Hero is BB with A , 3 . 6 folds, SB completes, Hero raises to t300, SB calls t200.Flop: (t600) 9 , 8 , J (2 players)SB bets t2005 (All-In), Hero ?No reads.

[Zach6668 513]

You can only call if you think your ace high is ahead some [large] percentage of the time here.

[AKProdigy 0]

I guess someone can check my math because I did this roughly in my head at the time:2000 to call 2600 in pot. about 1 to 1.3ace high 3 outs twice, fd ~8 outs twice. so about 22:25. Meaning I have the PO to call assuming he doesn't have an ace in his hand, and he isn't holding 2p or a striaght. And then I get additional percentage if hes on a complete bluff/draw. Did I miss something? (I don't really use pot odds too much in detail other than just rough calculations/rough icm, but am trying to incorporate it more in my game just for practice)

[Zach6668 513]

Give me a range, and I'll do the math for you.

[Zach6668 513]

You need 43.5% equity to breakeven here.He'd need to only do this with one pair, no kicker, no diamond, no oesd, no gutshot, and even then it's like really close.

[biggs88 0]

I guess someone can check my math because I did this roughly in my head at the time:2000 to call 2600 in pot. about 1 to 1.3ace high 3 outs twice, fd ~8 outs twice. so about 22:25. Meaning I have the PO to call assuming he doesn't have an ace in his hand, and he isn't holding 2p or a striaght. And then I get additional percentage if hes on a complete bluff/draw. Did I miss something? (I don't really use pot odds too much in detail other than just rough calculations/rough icm, but am trying to incorporate it more in my game just for practice)

You have 12 outs if you think your ace is live as well as your FD. If this is the case then your a slight underdog (~48%) to win with 2 cards to come and obv would be +EV.

[Stuples 0]

Is the SB doing a stop-n-go?

[Yahkin 0]

J9s makes sense here. Limp and a call PF. 2 Pair on a coordinated board, so he shovels to push you off the draws. I just can't see TP making this play OOP. I really think you need a diamond to win this hand.

[jmbreslin 0]

Is the SB doing a stop-n-go?

I think technically a stop-n-go would be if SB called an open-raise and then pushed the flop. Here he completed and then called a raise. And it's usually a shortstack move, which doesn't apply to SB. This looks more like completing in the hopes of catching something on the flop, and then catching something and betting big to push BB off the pot.It's such a huge overbet, though, that it almost looks like he's trying to represent a bluff...hoping he actually gets called.

[rog 0]

without some crazy read, I believe this is a fold. In the best case, this is a marginally +EV call.

[Zach6668 513]

I really don't think it's close.He'd need to show me his hand to prove to me that I'm getting the right price for me to call here.

[jburn812 0]

Why are you gambling here? You put in 300 chips thats not very substantial at all. If you feel you are a better player than the people around you I would never advocate a call here. Fold and outplay people.

[timwakefield 68]

Yeah this isn't even close to a call, unless you have a read that your opponent loves to make huge overbets with a naked draw (lower diamonds for instance). As pointed out above, you can only call this if you think the best hand he likely has is one pair no kicker, and that seems very very unlikely. The board is very draw heavy - IMO his huge overbet is probably two pair or one pair and a draw.

[AKProdigy 0]

I ended up folding because I felt like my ace outs weren't certain and it was a fairly marginal situation. I just think that sometimes in these situations I'm looking for too much of an edge to advocate calling and lose out on opportunities for doubling up when I'm ahead. Probably will post a few other hands as they come up in the coming week. Thanks for all the replies.

[rog 0]

I just think that sometimes in these situations I'm looking for too much of an edge to advocate calling and lose out on opportunities for doubling up when I'm ahead.

Nah. It's a 3.25 45 turbo. You don't need to take small edges for big chunks of your stack when you're ahead.

[AKProdigy 0]

Nah. It's a 3.25 45 turbo. You don't need to take small edges for big chunks of your stack when you're ahead.

I guess a better question than would be where do I draw the line on the edge I need to have to call off my stack early on in one of these things? Right now my ROI is ~70% (probably inflated) in a sample size of about 100.