shinzilla 0 Posted February 24, 2008 Share Posted February 24, 2008 Just sat at this table. Villain is 34/10/5 after 30 hands.Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (4 handed) Ultimate Bet Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)Hero ($100.70)SB ($64.50)BB ($23.70)UTG ($116.40)Preflop: Hero is Button with 8 , A . Hero raises to $5, 1 fold, BB calls $4, UTG calls $5.Flop: ($15.50) 5 , 8 , 9 (3 players)BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.Turn: ($15.50) A (3 players)BB checks, UTG bets $8, Hero raises to $24, BB folds, UTG raises to $46, Hero...wtf do we do here? Link to post Share on other sites
nomad_monad 0 Posted February 24, 2008 Share Posted February 24, 2008 with the dead $ in the pot and a likely hand range that breaks down like this:Board: 5c 8d 9s AcDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 45.120% 44.32% 00.80% 663 12.00 { Ad8s }Hand 1: 54.880% 54.08% 00.80% 809 12.00 { 55, As7s, As6s, A5s, JsTs, 98s, 76s, A5o, 98o, 76o }I think we have to shove here.Even if we're less optimistic about UTG's limping range (i.e. he limps with 88/99 instead of raising with them), it doesn't hurt us that much in terms of equity:Board: 5c 8d 9s AcDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 40.849% 40.13% 00.72% 671 12.00 { Ad8s }Hand 1: 59.151% 58.43% 00.72% 977 12.00 { 99-88, 55, As7s, As6s, A5s, JsTs, 98s, 76s, A5o, 98o, 76o } Link to post Share on other sites
simo_8ball 0 Posted February 24, 2008 Share Posted February 24, 2008 Bet the flop. Link to post Share on other sites
NoBBiR 0 Posted February 25, 2008 Share Posted February 25, 2008 Bet the flop. Link to post Share on other sites
krup24 0 Posted February 25, 2008 Share Posted February 25, 2008 Bet the flop.was gonna say the same thingi'd like to hear the rationale for not betting the flop here Link to post Share on other sites
shinzilla 0 Posted February 25, 2008 Author Share Posted February 25, 2008 Guys, I bet this flop 95% of the time. Gotta mix things up sometimes. Link to post Share on other sites
BuffDan 0 Posted February 25, 2008 Share Posted February 25, 2008 Villain coming to life that much on the turn makes me think his range is weighted more heavily to two pair/set/straight; I think including all of those flush draw type hands is optimistic (I realize the aggression factor is 5, but that is over only 30 hands, and there are many highly aggressive villains that don't bet/3 bet on the turn). Villain could also have A9 and was waiting to check raise us on the flop. I just think our flop check/turn raise means "I caught my pair of aces" and people don't generally try to make people fold top pair, so I think villain has to have that beat. Now we have top pair beat too, but this might be one of those situations where the difference between top two and any other two pair hand is enough to get us to fold.Oh, and bet the flop. Link to post Share on other sites
krup24 0 Posted February 25, 2008 Share Posted February 25, 2008 this is 98, A5, 85 as much as it is A9, set, straight. i shovel cause there may be just a tad of fe and i think we are 50/50 against his rangeand i don't wanna get into a huge c-bet convo but if you c-bet we can designate better ranges and your hand plays like 10,000x easier and yeah you win the pot right there a ton. Link to post Share on other sites
simo_8ball 0 Posted February 25, 2008 Share Posted February 25, 2008 Gotta mix things up sometimes.Please justify that.This should be a bet pretty much 100% of the time.Just like this is a bet 100% of the time with 55. Link to post Share on other sites
NoBBiR 0 Posted February 25, 2008 Share Posted February 25, 2008 Guys, I bet this flop 95% of the time. Gotta mix things up sometimes.I'm fine with mixing it up, but I think that it should be something like 99.9999998 percent of the time were cbetting here, and .0000001 we can check behind. If you're never checking behind here with a set (which I doubt you ever are) then just bet the flop always. Link to post Share on other sites
mtdesmoines 3 Posted February 25, 2008 Share Posted February 25, 2008 Guys, I bet this flop 95% of the time. Gotta mix things up sometimes.Why? So we lose some of the time and make the game more sporting? Link to post Share on other sites
shinzilla 0 Posted February 25, 2008 Author Share Posted February 25, 2008 I'm aware that betting>checking the flop. You guys are right; it would've made this hand much easier to play. But to say a play should be made 100% of the time? That statement is wrong. Link to post Share on other sites
NoBBiR 0 Posted February 25, 2008 Share Posted February 25, 2008 I'm fine with mixing it up, but I think that it should be something like 99.9999998 percent of the time were cbetting here, and .0000001 we can check behind. If you're never checking behind here with a set (which I doubt you ever are) then just bet the flop always. I'm aware that betting>checking the flop. You guys are right; it would've made this hand much easier to play. But to say a play should be made 100% of the time? That statement is wrong.Ha! You can't get me on that basis Link to post Share on other sites
simo_8ball 0 Posted February 25, 2008 Share Posted February 25, 2008 But to say a play should be made 100% of the time? That statement is wrong.Please justify your statement. Why is it bad to make a play 100% of the time? Link to post Share on other sites
Royal_Tour 0 Posted February 25, 2008 Share Posted February 25, 2008 (as played, its a fold)otherwise:bet the flop.. right now we're lost and have made a real hand. however were not entirely sure if we're up agianst a set, 8,9, a straight, A,x. although, as this has played out, our hand looks like AK, AQ.so if hes gonna donk bet/raise us when the A hits.I'm leaning towards this guy having flopped a monster Link to post Share on other sites
mtdesmoines 3 Posted February 25, 2008 Share Posted February 25, 2008 I'm aware that betting>checking the flop. You guys are right; it would've made this hand much easier to play. But to say a play should be made 100% of the time? That statement is wrong.I think you can mix up your monsters when you are well acquainted with villains, or are playing at very high levels, etc. This is a very mediocre holding that happened to hit and a lot of times is the best hand, but can get run down very easily.Just bet it. Every time. You could honestly be looking at a bet from 89 who thinks they have the best hand. But you have no way to navigate this board because you didn't start with a definition of where you stand. Link to post Share on other sites
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