Variance In Nl Hold Em

[Roberts2003 0]

To those who play shorthanded and heads up NL Hold Em:What should be expected variance wise in terms of running good/running bad?? How many buy ins won or lost can be attributed to running good/bad? I find myself wondering about these things, and feel that its not talked about often by people who play Shorthanded NL, the only time i ever see this topic is in Limit Ring topics. I posted this here because this is where the most intelligent people post, as well as people who have first hand experience in the ups and downs of shorthanded NL, so Zach dont move this haha.

[Scott3705 0]

If you asked Screech a while ago, apparently there is no variance for good players in NL. I have no idea HU's. My taste of it told me a lot, but i tilted too much in it which is why I never really kept up playing it.Shed at 1/2 or below, 5 buy-ins would be a really bad session. I would guess it could get worse, but I never let myself play past that. I've heard some very high limit players talk about 20+ buy-in swings in one session. Those are obviously very aggressive games.

[Verdimme 0]

I agree with Scott that -5BU is a very bad session 6 handed. It is hard to say what is normal though, since alot depends on your style, too. The more aggressive and the more you push small edges (=LAG) the more variance you can expect. More decisions means more variance too, so the lesser the players at the table, the more variance. You are getting in more marginal situations for meaningfull BB's, so the swings will be bigger. I don't know what a real bad downswing is HU though, since I don't play HU very often.I'd say take a look athe graphs Jordan post is the monthly graph thread for an idea of the variance in HU play. Or ask him yourself.

[Acid_Knight 2]

How many buy ins won or lost can be attributed to running good/bad?

When playing HU, something like this is SOOOO subjective since so many moves that you make are based totally on your read of the player and other hands that you have played. You have to ask the question "was that a mistake or did he just get lucky" when you make a huge bet and he calls with 3rd pair even when you put him on 3rd pair. I know if you ask Sklansky, since he called when you wanted him to fold, you made a mistake. I'd look at it and ask "if the same situation came up agian, knowing what I know, would I make the same bet in this borderline situation" and if the answer is yes, then I am happy with the play. He just made a good (read: dumb?) call on me.I guess what I'm getting at is that in a ring game or even 6 max game, it's much easier to categorize "running badly" instead of "playing badly" becuase you are against more opponents and your hand selection and position are more important. OBviously in any game where you get it in with an overpair or a set against a draw and get drawn out on, you're running kind of bad. Aside from that, it's harder to peg things down.As for an actual number of buyins, I wouldn't venture a guess. I am just trying to say that the most important thing is that you're 100% honest with yourself and are properly evaluating your play.

[Roberts2003 0]

these are all good posts. i just wanted some insight on this topic, because i am going through an nasty swing right now and while its nothing new and can be expected as it is poker, i just want to have the right mindset about it all and focus on long run. i have a couple more questions that might seem off and influenced by how i am running but i feel they are legit.1.) if you raise with 9 10 on the button and 1 guy from either blind calls and flop comes 2 7 8, would you be more inclined to check behind on the flop?2.) if you call preflop against a preflop button raiser with 7 8 clubs in the BB and it comes 3 5 10, two clubs, are you less likely to make a CR fold equity play?basically, does the fact that you are certain you are on a downswing effect the types of plays you make at all?

[Pot Odds RAC 23]

does the fact that you are certain you are on a downswing effect the types of plays you make at all?

If by "downswing" you mean "experiencing true variance" then the answer to your question is NO, and if you do let it affect your play, you are subscribing the Gambler's Falacy. There is no such thing as a being in the "middle" of probability downswing. The next hand is unaffected by the previous hand.

[Royal_Tour 0]

Hmm. this is a tuff one.i havent touched HU cash game NL. Only HU cash games i've played are Limit, and i used to play HU sng's.HU NL cash games can get expensive is my guess.If i had to make an education assumption on what "I personally" would be prepared to lose per session wuld be 2-3 buy-ins. If i'm getting out played, or getting outdrawn, its no difference. I'd have to learn what went wrong and hope for better results the next time

[GaYeled 0]

I'm glad you started this thread, I enjoyed it. I'd have to say that losing 4 or more buy ins in a session can be categorized as a terrible session. I usually stop after losing this much so I don't experience 10 buy in swings in one session. However, a downswing doesn't have to be one session. If you're down 10 buy ins over one day where you played 5000 hands or you're down 10 buy ins in a week where you played 5k hands, it's no different (psycholocally it is). I think that it's VERY difficult to concentrate and play your A game after losign more than 4 buyins and I think it's a good time to quit for that day although sometimes it's hard because you're getting outdrawn and not outplayed. But even then, imagine the next day you have to go to work (play poker i mean) and you're down 10 buy ins. It's hard to play your A game even then because it's frankly depressing to be down this much money in 1 day. Setting stop loss limits is important and even more important is to be able to follow them

[Jordan 1]

Sometimes you think you're on a downswing and you just are playing bad.If I recall, you went on a sick "upswing". I assure you, you're winnings are not just cause you are playing well. Just as that is not the case for me...and I'm having one of my bests months ever. Winning is a mix of playing well and getting good results, conversely, a downswing can be simply playing well and getting bad results...or playing less that optimal and getting bad results...just as going on an upswing..you can play "poorly" and still win. Thus is poker...and thus it is tough to really know when you are a winning player or not. It takes a ton of hands.I think a true downswing lasts for thousands of hands (10s of thousands). Variance is session to session, and I don't think you can really calculate this without taking into account what kind of game you are playing in (tough game, soft game), how many buy-ins you have at the limit you are playing, and how you are losing the hands you are losing...I'd recommend posting the hands you are losing the most on, and going from there.I went on a $11k downswing...and I've gone back and looked at my hands. I have somany spots where I ran into sets, it's sickening...and then there are the stackoffs in spots I'd almost never stack off on...and that's when you know your "downswing" is a mix of running bad and then making less than optimal decisions.I know of poker players that go through insane dry patches of breaking even, upswings, and downswings..it just happens, you can't really put a "label" on how long it lasts...Like, I play HU well, but I'm also aware over the last 14k hands I've been on a sick heater. My last 3.8k hands I broke even, and I just booked a winning 1k session for +6 buy ins...so you could say that in my 14k stretch, I had a 3.8k session of bad variance...which is really nothing...but the rest of the time, I've really had positive variance (for the most part -- most of my sessions I'm up/down, but end up). Yes, I've played well, but I've also been lucky and not gotten unlucky. Of course I play bad at times, and make mistakes...but when you look over your hands from sessions you should be able to tell if you are just running bad, or playing bad...if you play well and lose, just deal with the results...that's a "downswing" or whatever. If you play bad and are losing/winning...you should look into your game and get help.Like, my 3.8k hand stretch I can remember spewing 2 buy-ins at least, maybe 3. But I also lost 5 buy-ins to stupid beats that were either coolers, or bad beats. Nothing I can do about that. The only encouraging thing about my 3.8k stretch (which again is nothing, especially HU) was that I was up $48 after it...despite spewing 2-3 buy ins. Steaming, HU or 6 max, is a big big big factor as to you really downswinging, or just playing bad and blaming it on bad luck.- Jordan

[danau 0]

these are all good posts. i just wanted some insight on this topic, because i am going through an nasty swing right now and while its nothing new and can be expected as it is poker, i just want to have the right mindset about it all and focus on long run. i have a couple more questions that might seem off and influenced by how i am running but i feel they are legit.1.) if you raise with 9 10 on the button and 1 guy from either blind calls and flop comes 2 7 8, would you be more inclined to check behind on the flop?2.) if you call preflop against a preflop button raiser with 7 8 clubs in the BB and it comes 3 5 10, two clubs, are you less likely to make a CR fold equity play?basically, does the fact that you are certain you are on a downswing effect the types of plays you make at all?

answering these questions is impossible, you should know that poker is an extremely situational game and, hu, very read dependant. to answer the one question in there that i can.. no, never let a downswing alter the way you play (unless the way you play was originally flawed). try and play each hand in a vacuum