VernonME 0 Posted February 16, 2007 Share Posted February 16, 2007 Just trying to learn the mathematics portion to poker.Say you have 8H 6H and villain has QS 3C.The board is 5C 9H and QH How do you find the chances of you hitting your draw?You hav four 7 cards, 8 heart cards (excluding the 7), and there are 44 cards left in the deck. So.. 7+8 = 15 cards to catch your draw. 15 / 44 = 34%, but how does one calculate the odds of 2 chances of catching your draw (turn and river).Just wondering if anyone could help, thanks. Link to post Share on other sites

xzanos 0 Posted February 16, 2007 Share Posted February 16, 2007 Just trying to learn the mathematics portion to poker.Say you have 8H 6H and villain has QS 3C.The board is 5C 9H and QH How do you find the chances of you hitting your draw?You hav four 7 cards, 8 heart cards (excluding the 7), and there are 44 cards left in the deck. So.. 7+8 = 15 cards to catch your draw. 15 / 44 = 34%, but how does one calculate the odds of 2 chances of catching your draw (turn and river).Just wondering if anyone could help, thanks.calculate the odds of you missing your draw on both streets. Subtract that result from 1.This will only give you an approximation though, because there are situations where you improve, but so does your opponent and you still lose.Also, cardplayer has a good odds calculator here: http://cardplayer.com/poker_odds/texas_holdemThere are also several other calculators on other sites. Link to post Share on other sites

VernonME 0 Posted February 16, 2007 Author Share Posted February 16, 2007 Calculate the odds of missing my draw on both streets.. so I have a 34% chance of hitting on the turn, so theres a 66% chance I miss? Then.. theres a 36% chance I miss on the river. (15 / 42). So now what do I subtract by 1? 1 - (34 + 36)= my odds? Link to post Share on other sites

Dratj 0 Posted February 16, 2007 Share Posted February 16, 2007 Just trying to learn the mathematics portion to poker.Say you have 8H 6H and villain has QS 3C.The board is 5C 9H and QH How do you find the chances of you hitting your draw?You hav four 7 cards, 8 heart cards (excluding the 7), and there are 44 cards left in the deck. So.. 7+8 = 15 cards to catch your draw. 15 / 44 = 34%, but how does one calculate the odds of 2 chances of catching your draw (turn and river).Just wondering if anyone could help, thanks.You have to use finite calculations, using factorials and such. Go to Barry Greenstein's website if you want examples. Link to post Share on other sites

xzanos 0 Posted February 16, 2007 Share Posted February 16, 2007 You have to use finite calculations, using factorials and such. Go to Barry Greenstein's website if you want examples.Yeah. I fuct up in my first explaination. You've only got 12 outs. you added your 7's as 7 outs. You have 9 hearts and 3 more 7's = 12 outs. So, you're 12/45 to hit on the turn. Then the odds change depending what falls if you don't improve. Usually, it'll be 12/44 for the river though. A general rule of thumb to guesstimate is 2%/out/street. in this case, 48%. Link to post Share on other sites

seanthecon 0 Posted February 16, 2007 Share Posted February 16, 2007 basically on the turn with 2 cards to come its outsX4=% to hit that card, u have 10 outs, that means u have %40 chance of hitting that card. under 10 outs its about 1% less than ur out X 4, and more than 10 outs about 1 % more.if u have 1 cards to come on the turn. Its outs X 2 +2= % to hit ur card. if u have 10 outs u will have about a 22% chance of making ur hand. under 10 outs < .5% over 10 outs > .5%now to put this into play the formula is (say on turn) if outs X 2 + 2 = % > BEP (break even percentage) 1 / (pot odds+ 1) okur u have 13 outs on the turn. ur getting 4-1 to make the call. outs X 2 + 2 = 28% > 1 / (4+1)=20 % = the right equity decesion to make the call since your precentage to hit the winning card is greater than your percentage to break even in to pot or better, so it is worth the call. i think i explained this correctlylet me know if im completly off Link to post Share on other sites

DCJ001 0 Posted February 16, 2007 Share Posted February 16, 2007 Just trying to learn the mathematics portion to poker.Say you have 8H 6H and villain has QS 3C.The board is 5C 9H and QH How do you find the chances of you hitting your draw?You have four 7 cards, 8 heart cards (excluding the 7), and there are 44 cards left in the deck. So.. 4+8 = 12 cards to catch your draw.FYPAlso, here's some help with regard to pot odds:http://www.gainesville.com/apps/pbcs.dll/a...1/entertainment Link to post Share on other sites

GABMAD 0 Posted February 16, 2007 Share Posted February 16, 2007 Just trying to learn the mathematics portion to poker.Say you have 8H 6H and villain has QS 3C.The board is 5C 9H and QH How do you find the chances of you hitting your draw?You hav four 7 cards, 8 heart cards (excluding the 7), and there are 44 cards left in the deck. So.. 7+8 = 15 cards to catch your draw. 15 / 44 = 34%, but how does one calculate the odds of 2 chances of catching your draw (turn and river).Just wondering if anyone could help, thanks.to figure out your chances of hitting (approximately and quickly) calculate your outs which are 15. Multiply by 4 if you want the percent of you hitting on both streets and by 2 if you're only counting on 1 card. Don't make the mistake of assuming you'll see 2 cards when you call flop bet. Use judgement. So in this case you have ~30 % of hitting the turn. The actual odds are 31.9%. If you add 1 or 2 percent every time it works well. OOPS...you actually only have 12 outs don't know where i got 15 from. My bad.EDIT after reading responses: What seanthecon said is the same thing i said. Link to post Share on other sites

rog 0 Posted February 16, 2007 Share Posted February 16, 2007 Calculate the odds of missing my draw on both streets.. so I have a 34% chance of hitting on the turn, so theres a 66% chance I miss? Then.. theres a 36% chance I miss on the river. (15 / 42). So now what do I subtract by 1? 1 - (34 + 36)= my odds?you have 12 outs out of 47 cards remaining. that means you have a 12/47 chance of hitting, and a 35/47 chance of missing (these are roughly 26/74). You have a 34/46 chance of missing on the river. To find out your chance of hitting you multiply your odds of missing together and subtract that from 1:1 - (35 x 34 / 47 x 46) =1 - (1190 / 2162) = 972 / 2162 =.45or 45%That is how it is done. PS. You dont just count "cards left in the deck". You count unseen cards. 47 on the flop and 46 on the turn. Link to post Share on other sites

GABMAD 0 Posted February 16, 2007 Share Posted February 16, 2007 you have 12 outs out of 47 cards remaining. that means you have a 12/47 chance of hitting, and a 35/47 chance of missing (these are roughly 26/74). You have a 34/46 chance of missing on the river. To find out your chance of hitting you multiply your odds of missing together and subtract that from 1:1 - (35 x 34 / 47 x 46) =1 - (1190 / 2162) = 972 / 2162 =.45or 45%That is how it is done. PS. You dont just count "cards left in the deck". You count unseen cards. 47 on the flop and 46 on the turn.Ya that's more accurate then the X4 rule, but can you really do this in a game? do you bring a calculator with you? This might be useful for analysis after the game. Link to post Share on other sites

xzanos 0 Posted February 16, 2007 Share Posted February 16, 2007 PS. You dont just count "cards left in the deck". You count unseen cards. 47 on the flop and 46 on the turn.except that if you have seen your opponent's hole cards, such as in an all in situation, there are 45 and 44 unseen cards on the flop and turn respectively. Link to post Share on other sites

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