stars $10+1 turbo rebuy - bubble question

[ononimo 0]

I'm wondering what the correct play is in the following situation:Down to 26 people - top 23 win buy-in to $215 multi.Blinds are 6000/12000 pot = 23,400 before my action.BB (t33250)UTG (t39491)UTG+1 (t6945)MP1 (t40692)MP2 (t17674)Hero (t14728)CO (t5972)Button (t23210)SB (t38460)Preflop: Hero is MP3 with AJoEveryone folds to me.Everyone has been folding to the blinds for the last round or so unless they are critically short-stacked - except for UTG who has been raising my blinds, forcing me to fold (he's already out of the hand). There is only one short stack behind me and I have him covered about twice-fold.The current blinds are among the largest stacks remaining - I assume the small blind will fold her blind (she's not in danger yet) and only the big blind will call if I push.What's the correct play for survival? Push or try to wait it out for others to bust out first?

[Vade 0]

I'd say pushYou have better then an average starting hand, and don't have enough chips to survive the blindsBetter here then later

[akishore 0]

the blinds are atrocious!unless you mistyped, you have a little over 1 big blind left, and the other stacks vary between less than 1 big blind to just a little over 3 big blinds.pushing is by far the correct play, but never playing that tournament again is even better.aseem

[Vade 0]

*shudder*It's a turbo tourneyGawd, those things are nothing but luck fests

[looshle 6]

Well you're getting called if you push. There's no 2 ways around it. Prizes 1-23 are all the same. Only 3 more people have to go out. UTG + 1 and MP2 are going to have to put their chips in before you do, and thats only @ your table. If theres any incentive to go for 1st, I would push in here without thinking twice about it, hoping to take the pot down but being so close to getting paid the same as everyone else, with 2 other tables going would make this an easy laydown for me.If you had any fold equity by going all in preflop I think this could be debatable, but as it is right now, it's an easy fold.

[looshle 6]

You have to look at the structure of the tournament. 23rd is the same as 1st. Easy fold.

[Vade 0]

The way I see it, what happens if those players pick up hands and double up over the next two hands?Then you're stuck hoping your BB hand isn't 7-2 offsuit

[akishore 0]

while 1st - 23rd pay the same, you have to realize how pathetic your stack is. especially if there are antes in these tournament, you don't have the stack to wait to get into the money.in ANY other similar situation, folding is correct here because 23rd pays the same as 1st so it makes sense to fold into the money and not take unnecessary gambles. however, you can't afford to. AJo is probably the best hand you're going to see in an average round.push. almost always you will get called, but almost always it will be against a worse hand. if you get outdrawn, so be it. if you make them fold their 7-2 because they want to get into the money, even better. but you just don't have the stack to wait.push.aseem

[looshle 6]

There's 2 people at our table who are forced to move in before us. For arguments sake, let's say theres 3 others at the other 2 tables who have smaller stacks than us. Could be more could be less but I say 3 is a good guess.5 people have to risk their life before we do. There's 4 hands behind of us and 1 of them is definately calling. Cards are irrelevant in this case. Putting ourselves at risk here is horrible.

[ononimo 0]

Well you're getting called if you push. There's no 2 ways around it. Prizes 1-23 are all the same. Only 3 more people have to go out. UTG + 1 and MP2 are going to have to put their chips in before you do, and thats only @ your table. If theres any incentive to go for 1st, I would push in here without thinking twice about it, hoping to take the pot down but being so close to getting paid the same as everyone else, with 2 other tables going would make this an easy laydown for me.If you had any fold equity by going all in preflop I think this could be debatable, but as it is right now, it's an easy fold.

So the correct play is to try to wait out the others? As it turned out I pushed because I thought that was the better play with AJ vs. waiting and hoping others busted out first. I knew there were two short stacks going into the blinds before me at my table but I didn't want to run the risk of them doubling up only to get caught in my own blinds with very poor hands. Was that a mistake?So ... I got called by the big blind (as I expected).He turned over 9-2 offsuit vs. my A-J offsuit.He hit 2 pair and I was out 26th.The results don't matter to me ... I'm just really looking for the correct play.

[LeeDanger 0]

I agree with looshle, with stack sizes that small youre just as well to wait it out. You have to remember odds on any two unpaired hands.... losing every 1 of 3 times is a lot, is that a risk youre willing to take? Then again you are in a speed tournament so all analysis is irrelevant.

[goleafsgo 0]

I don't think you can only look at your table. You need to know stack sizes at the other tables and when people are likely to bust. I fold and hope to make it into 23rd. I would only push a big pair in that situation. Maybe even a mid pair where you might get called by 1 under one over.

[ononimo 0]

I don't think you can only look at your table. You need to know stack sizes at the other tables and when people are likely to bust. I fold and hope to make it into 23rd. I would only push a big pair in that situation. Maybe even a mid pair where you might get called by 1 under one over.

what would you do in a live tourney? i've never played a live tourney so i don't know if it's as easy to gauge stack sizes at other tables as it is online.thanks for all the advice guys, guess i should have read some tournament books before entering this multi.

[ononimo 0]

I agree with looshle, with stack sizes that small youre just as well to wait it out. You have to remember odds on any two unpaired hands.... losing every 1 of 3 times is a lot, is that a risk youre willing to take? Then again you are in a speed tournament so all analysis is irrelevant.

Given this analysis, are my hole cards relevant? Do I fold AK in the same situation? How about AA or KK?

[looshle 6]

If this is a regularly structured tournament, pushing in with AJ is a no brainer but its not. We're 3 away from cashing in. I'm only pushing in this spot with AA.

[goleafsgo 0]

Live tournemnt it becomes a bit harder, especially because you might not even know how many people are left. Then i guess you could assume the other tables are running about the same stacks as you...maybe a weak assumption, but i think in the same situation you could probably fold AJ. AA you have to push and i still think you would need to push KK and probably QQ and maybeJJ 1010-88 or 77 is a bit harder. With these hands you could still be a 70 percent plus favorite but its risky. You would probably get away from these hands. The whole point is deciding if your going to be called by 2 under cards or an underpair. Since the BB's calling with any 2 you just have to decide if you think hes going to have 0, 1 or 2 overs to you pp. The problem with AK or any unpaired hand is your not a huge favorite unless your sharing cards so i would probably fold AK here as well. It plays almost the same as AJ

[ononimo 0]

Live tournemnt it becomes a bit harder, especially because you might not even know how many people are left. Then i guess you could assume the other tables are running about the same stacks as you...maybe a weak assumption, but i think in the same situation you could probably fold AJ. AA you have to push and i still think you would need to push KK and probably QQ and maybeJJ 1010-88 or 77 is a bit harder. With these hands you could still be a 70 percent plus favorite but its risky. You would probably get away from these hands. The whole point is deciding if your going to be called by 2 under cards or an underpair. Since the BB's calling with any 2 you just have to decide if you think hes going to have 0, 1 or 2 overs to you pp. The problem with AK or any unpaired hand is your not a huge favorite unless your sharing cards so i would probably fold AK here as well. It plays almost the same as AJ

thanks for taking the time to answer - much appreciated ... you too, looshle!