Variance Question For Statistic Guys/gals

[hblask 1]

OK, so if I go to this page: http://www.bet-the-pot.com/bankroll-standa...ion-page43.htmlI can figure out how big of a bankroll I need for a specific confidence of not going brokeBasically, it gives a formula for variance, where Chance of Going Broke = <complicated formula with scary natural logs>My question is, over what time period? Is that chance of going broke in your next session? That seems unlikely, based on the numbers I'm getting and my worst sessions ever. Is it the chance of going broke *ever*, no matter how much I play? Or is it the chance that my next significant move in either direction will be that amount; in other words, starting right now, there is an X% chance that I will be down $Y dollars as my next swing? This last one seems most likely to me, I just want to make sure.Then, if that is what it means, can I just solve for percentage, so that, given a swing of $Y, I can make myself feel better by saying, don't worry, there was a 1 in 4 chance that I would eventually have a swing this large, so it's not my playing, it's just random luck? Or don't the statistics translate like that?

[No_Neck 0]

OK, so if I go to this page: http://www.bet-the-pot.com/bankroll-standa...ion-page43.htmlI can figure out how big of a bankroll I need for a specific confidence of not going brokeBasically, it gives a formula for variance, where Chance of Going Broke = <complicated formula with scary natural logs>My question is, over what time period? Is that chance of going broke in your next session? That seems unlikely, based on the numbers I'm getting and my worst sessions ever. Is it the chance of going broke *ever*, no matter how much I play? Or is it the chance that my next significant move in either direction will be that amount; in other words, starting right now, there is an X% chance that I will be down $Y dollars as my next swing? This last one seems most likely to me, I just want to make sure.Then, if that is what it means, can I just solve for percentage, so that, given a swing of $Y, I can make myself feel better by saying, don't worry, there was a 1 in 4 chance that I would eventually have a swing this large, so it's not my playing, it's just random luck? Or don't the statistics translate like that?

it is the chance you will go broke at some point.

[phlegm 6]

Your chance of going broke is inversely proportional to your skill level.. Variance is hooey, made up to make losers feel better about playing crappy.

[copernicus 0]

Your chance of going broke is inversely proportional to your skill level.. Variance is hooey, made up to make losers think that online poker isnt rigged.

FYP

[phlegm 6]

FYP

That is so freakin wierd. I was going to post that exact thing ,then changed it.

[Actuary 3]

I see Copernicus is browsing.... :)I better be correct here.It's the probability you will EVER go broke assuming you use your actual WR and Variance (unknown, but you try to guess), starting with the BankRoll you input.Howeve, that Risk of Ruin (ROR) changes as your current BankRoll changes.If you set it up, such thatr ROR = 1%, and then proceed to go on a big downswing... and have 1/2 the BR, your chances of going broke are now >1%.this is where it got tricky for me....If you go on huge upswing, then chance of going broke <1%, now.