bluffing and improving

[timwakefield 68]

$5 rebuy on Stars. Average stack is about 125K, I have 95K. Blinds 3K/6K ante 300. I am UTG with AQ clubs. Raise to 20K. Folded to BB, who calls, with a stack of 130K.Flop: K94 with 2 spades. BB checks. I check (planning on a continuation bet on 4th street).Turn: J diamonds. BB checks. I bet 30K. BB calls. River: A hearts. Board K94JA. BB goes all in. I am calling 45K to win 150K, but my tourney life is also at stake. I have no reads on him, having just recently moved to the table. Do you call or fold? If I fold I am looking to double up ASAP.

[SexyStudThang 0]

I would have liked to see the continuation bet made on the flop, as in this situation what you've almost definitely run into is Q10 spiking a gutshot on the turn, and he'd have been pretty hard pressed to stick his money in there on a gutshot. The only other option I think is KJ being upset because he let a scary card hot on the river by slowplaying so much, but I think it's much less likely. Continuation bets just work so much in these later stages. He's either got KJ, MAYBE AJ, or he's folding if you bet the flop (this is assumin no set, if he has that he check calls and you just take the river for free and hope to hit the 10)That's my take anyway .

[ForKeeps 0]

Any read on this guy??? If you have one at all, I think this is an easy decision.If he makes a lot of moves, I almost insta-call. Typical for LAG's to bet scary cards, especially if he did think you were making a continuation bet or were betting your J.If he's more of a rock, you fold here pretty easily. It was a significant hit to your stack, but a rock betting into a scare card means he's hoping the A improved your hand and catching it will induce a call from you. If a rock only had a piece of the board, he's certainly betting/raising on the flop or turn.

[copernicus 0]

Your Ace is very easy to read from the action, and I think (with benefit of hindsight) that many pros and may even me would read your hand as exactly AQ.If I am in his seat would I bluff into an AQ here? There has been nothing in my play that has indicated anything strong, then I wake up on the river with an A that is "clearly" not an AK and probably not an AJ. I fully expect a call from AQ.I dont think hes bluffing and would fold. I agree the c.b. needs to come on the flop though Im not sure it helps if hes got AJ A9. I dont believe AK would check the flop.

[timwakefield 68]

Solution? He had A 4 flush draw and I won. I put him on either 2 pair of missed flush, and the pot was too large to fold. I also wouldn't have been surprised if he'd had AQ as well.

[Rocketwadster 0]

By putting in a continuation bet on the flop, you will hopefully eliminate any tough decisions later in the hand. Since you didn't, I would have called, reluctantly.Look at decisions, not results. B)

[copernicus 0]

Solution? He had A 4 flush draw and I won. I put him on either 2 pair of missed flush, and the pot was too large to fold. I also wouldn't have been surprised if he'd had AQ as well.

Great call. And either a great bluff or a donk who didnt think it through and thought the A would be a good scare card to bluff on, which I never give enough "negative credit" for.