analyze it

[Scott3705 0]

Oh my god, dude, preflop and flop are standard.  It would be incorrect for him to move in at any point in this hand.  He is not thinking "time to try to double up"  he is clearly an experienced tournament player.  If he moves in on that ragged flop it's instacall by UTG+1.  Think about why.The only interesting street in this hand is the turn.

what's the buy in for this tourney, because I'm guessin it was a high level game by the way you are admiring this play. (And because you say it's an instant call if he pulls a stop and go. Not an instant call from lower buy in tourneys.)

[Hobbes 1]

What's he doing trying to outplay this guy postflop with min bets?  (Disclaimer preflop isn't wrong if he moves in on floppped rag bored like this)

Oh my god, dude, preflop and flop are standard. It would be incorrect for him to move in at any point in this hand. He is not thinking "time to try to double up" he is clearly an experienced tournament player. If he moves in on that ragged flop it's instacall by UTG+1. Think about why.The only interesting street in this hand is the turn.

I don't understand how the flop play is standard. With that board and with that pot, what is UTG laying down to a $3k bet? BB has accomplished nothing but put more money into a pot in a hand in which he is clearly behind.

[Scott3705 0]

 I don't understand how the flop play is standard.  With that board and with that pot, what is UTG laying down to a $3k bet?  BB has accomplished nothing but put more money into a pot in a hand in which he is clearly behind.

It's standard cause the OP said

Oh my god, dude,

before he said it was standard.

[DrZebra 0]

I'll play in any tournament you play in if when you call a raise preflop you check fold every flop you miss.

[Scott3705 0]

I'll play in any tournament you play in if when you call a raise preflop you check fold every flop you miss.

Zebra, IYO, why are we in this pot in the first place?

[Hobbes 1]

I'll play in any tournament you play in if when you call a raise preflop you check fold every flop you miss.

I don't remember anyone saying check-fold was the right play on the flop. The discussion was whether minimum betting the flop was the right play and if it is, why? You said he was stealing or testing the waters. But he only bet $3k into a $15.5k pot with a flush draw board. So what has he learned by this flop bet? Does UTG have a pocket pair? Flush draw? Over cards? Did he flop a monster?Then the flush gets there. And again the BB bets the minimum. UTG is only laying down here if he's been playing with rags and has no hand, no draw, which seems highly unlikely given the way the hand has been played.I don't understand why this is standard play and you haven't explained it yet.

[DrZebra 0]

I guess this guy is defending his BB while shortstacked.After the raggedy flop, if he checks he will surely have to fold to a bet, so the min-bet serves to block as well as stab. I personally might think about check-folding the turn once the min-bet is called on the flop. I don't know if this guy thought there was fold equity in betting or if he had a read that his opponent has come over the top with nothing in the past. Somehow he's still in the pot and the call of the raise really sparked my interest because it seems like such a blunder.Lately I've been thinking a lot more about short term blunders that make sense in cash equity. (Like we've described here in which this guy is faced with "bad" or "really bad" situations but the "really bad" situation may put him in a strong situation 1 in 11 times.)

[DrZebra 0]

I guess to address what you're asking Hobbes, maybe this guy is again block/stabbing the turn because he wants a showdown.We vaguely established that there is not much difference between being in 7th in chipstack with 2 or 4 BB's but what about 5? Is this just as bad? If there is ANY fold equity and we establish 4BB's to be equally bad to 5BB's, how can we not bet the turn?

[Hobbes 1]

I guess to address what you're asking Hobbes, maybe this guy is again block/stabbing the turn because he wants a showdown.We vaguely established that there is not much difference between being in 7th in chipstack with 2 or 4 BB's but what about 5? Is this just as bad? If there is ANY fold equity and we establish 4BB's to be equally bad to 5BB's, how can we not bet the turn?

But he shouldn't; he's got King high. The only hand he wants to showdown is when he hits his miracle non-heart Queen. Maybe a check-raise on the turn is his best option if he can't fold. If UTG checks behind him, he gets a free card for his miracle. If UTG value bets his Ace, maybe an all in raise can get him to fold. If UTG pushes all in, then he's at the same spot he was with the minimum bet on the turn, but at least he gave himself some positive options before that.

[DrZebra 0]

We vaguely established that there is not much difference between being in 7th in chipstack with 2 or 4 BB's but what about 5? Is this just as bad? If there is ANY fold equity and we establish 4BB's to be equally bad to 5BB's, how can we not bet the turn?

If he checks the turn and UTG+1 pushes, BB has to fold.If he pushes (check/raise or not) he gets called.If there is ANY fold equity, betting 3K is worth it because 5BB's is just as last place as 4.

[Hobbes 1]

We vaguely established that there is not much difference between being in 7th in chipstack with 2 or 4 BB's but what about 5? Is this just as bad? If there is ANY fold equity and we establish 4BB's to be equally bad to 5BB's, how can we not bet the turn?

If he checks the turn and UTG+1 pushes, BB has to fold.If he pushes (check/raise or not) he gets called.If there is ANY fold equity, betting 3K is worth it because 5BB's is just as last place as 4.

Maybe I'm missing the point. If he's never folding to a check raise push when the flush gets there, how is he ever folding to a 1/7 pot sized bet?

[DrZebra 0]

If he's never folding to a check raise push when the flush gets there, how is he ever folding to a 1/7 pot sized bet?

The price of being wrong about fold equity with a push is the tournament.The price of being wrong about fold equity with a min-bet is a BB.

[Hobbes 1]

If he's never folding to a check raise push when the flush gets there, how is he ever folding to a 1/7 pot sized bet?

The price of being wrong about fold equity with a push is the tournament.The price of being wrong about fold equity with a min-bet is a BB.

But that's always the case when choosing your bet amount. Maybe the light bulb will go on at some point for me, but I don't see any argument for the way this hand was played.

[DrZebra 0]

I'm leaving work, so this is the last thing I will say about this today.I've answered everything you've asked about my opinions.You say you don't understand the play but you offer no alternative.Should he check/fold the flop, turn, should he have folded to the raise preflop with KJ suited when it was just more than a min-raise? Should he check/raise all in with a gutshot? What do you think?This table was full of competent players with very short stacks. I thought it was interesting and I would share it.

[Scott3705 0]

But that's always the case when choosing your bet amount. Maybe the light bulb will go on at some point for me, but I don't see any argument for the way this hand was played.

I doubt the light bulb is going to go on for you. it's a retarded hand and Zebra imagined something interesting about it. Min raising is pointless. Zebra argues it has fold equity but you and I both know it has none that either raising preflop or stopping and going doesn't have (there's your alternatives Zebra which are the right altertantives in this case if you don't want to fold preflop or check/call). Competent players do not bet 1/7th of the pot with nothing. I don't care if you tell me that this was a table of phil helmuth and Daniel Negreanu playing. It was a brain fart on the part of BB if this were the case. The only thing interesting about this hand is that you believe that there is something interesting about it. A guy made a bad play and got to the point that he would not be able to come back in the tournament without risking the minimal amount of BB's he had left. In eseence pot sticking him.

[Hobbes 1]

I'm leaving work, so this is the last thing I will say about this today.I've answered everything you've asked about my opinions.You say you don't understand the play but you offer no alternative.Should he check/fold the flop, turn, should he have folded to the raise preflop with KJ suited when it was just more than a min-raise?  Should he check/raise all in with a gutshot?  What do you think?This table was full of competent players with very short stacks.  I thought it was interesting and I would share it.

You've answered the questions in a way that offers no insight. If you ask me what are the odds of kings cracking aces pre-flop and I said "bananas," I would have answered your question, but it would still be meaningless.I said check/fold the turn because you are drawing dead most of the time and drawing almost dead the rest. That makes you a lot worse than 10 to 1 odds against, it's at least 25:1 in my opinion. I said you'd be better off folding and going all in blind the next hand if you felt you had to get your money in. I also said that if you felt pot committed on the turn, then you should check-raise all in because it might get UTG off the hand and it might get you a free river card. At worse you have all your money in when you would be doing that anyway.Your answer was that a push or even a check-raise push would not get UTG off the hand, but you have never said why. I was intrigued by the whole Gigabet analysis stuff, but I haven't seen anything here that would change my strategy.

[DrZebra 0]

You've answered the questions in a way that offers no insight. If you ask me what are the odds of kings cracking aces pre-flop and I said "bananas," I would have answered your question, but it would still be meaningless.

good one

I said check/fold the turn because you are drawing dead most of the time and drawing almost dead the rest.

you incorrectly think either:a) guy raises in EP pf with 10-4 or B) guy clearly has a boat or flush because he raised pf.

I also said that if you felt pot committed on the turn...

pot commitment is a farce, particularly in tournament play.

Your answer was that a push or even a check-raise push would not get UTG off the hand, but you have never said why.

Because of the immediate cash equity UTG+1 gains by calling for the possible negative equity he may perceive (but may not have (as we as omniscient observers know--he is ahead)).No one cares if your tournament play doesn't change.

[copernicus 0]

"pot commitment is a farce, particularly in tournament play. "'splain please, Lucy?

[Scott3705 0]

"pot commitment is a farce, particularly in tournament play. "'splain please, Lucy?

Please kill this thread, my IQ keeps going down everytime i open it, but it's too entertaining not to watch.

[Hobbes 1]

I said check/fold the turn because you are drawing dead most of the time and drawing almost dead the rest.

you incorrectly think either:a) guy raises in EP pf with 10-4 or B) guy clearly has a boat or flush because he raised pf.No one cares if your tournament play doesn't change.

a) No, I never put him on 10-4. Tens is a possibility though, no?B) I don't put him on a flush just because he raised pf. He raised pf, called the flop, and raised the turn. Isn't AK, AQ, or AT the worst hand he would do all of this with? In that case, you're either 6.8% or 9.1%. You still have to consider the flush and boat possibilities and that makes your odds worse.And interestingly enough, I don't care if no one cares. I was just saying you haven't convinced me that this was some great play.

[Hobbes 1]

"pot commitment is a farce, particularly in tournament play. "'splain please, Lucy?

Please kill this thread, my IQ keeps going down everytime i open it, but it's too entertaining not to watch.

I just can't seem to extricate myself from it...

[Snowman 0]

I'm gonna give it a final shot.The best possible situation BB can expect is to be up against Ax without a heart. (That's stretching it, especially if we look at this situation generally)Then he's got 4 outs with one card to come, which means he's got 10.5:1 in odds to hit it.If we include flushes, boats and flush draws this number will in effect be a lot worse.So let me ask you this: When should you *fold* a hand if you won't fold this one?I freely admit that I'm far from a world class player, but this whole hand looks very fishy to me.

[DrZebra 0]

If you check/fold the turn you are left with 5 BB's.If you check and the UTG+1 moves in you fold and are left with 5 BB's.If you bet 3k and are called again, then miss/fold you are left with 4BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit/bet you have 16BB's.If you bet 3k and are raised all in you fold and are left with 4 BB's.If you bet 3k and are raised 6k, you call miss/fold you are left with 2BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit/bet you have 16BB's.If you bet allin you are called/miss you are left with zero BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit you have 16 BB'sBoth of the best choices include betting 3k. At this stage in the tourney what is the potential/immediate cash loss from 5BB's to 2BB's?THE END

[Scott3705 0]

If you check/fold the turn you are left with 5 BB's.If you check and the UTG+1 moves in you fold and are left with 5 BB's.If you bet 3k and are called again, then miss/fold you are left with 4BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit/bet you have 16BB's.If you bet 3k and are raised all in you fold and are left with 4 BB's.If you bet 3k and are raised 6k, you call miss/fold you are left with 2BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit/bet you have 16BB's.If you bet allin you are called/miss you are left with zero BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit you have 16 BB'sBoth of the best choices include betting 3k. At this stage in the tourney what is the potential/immediate cash loss from 5BB's to 2BB's?THE END

These are your choicesThe mistakes are Preflop and the flop. why not look to double up preflop when you could be way ahead or atleast 30% to win if you are ready to try to double up with less than 10%? Fold preflop, push preflop, or stop and go.DON'T WRITE IN CAPS.

[copernicus 0]

If you check/fold the turn you are left with 5 BB's.If you check and the UTG+1 moves in you fold and are left with 5 BB's.If you bet 3k and are called again, then miss/fold you are left with 4BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit/bet you have 16BB's.If you bet 3k and are raised all in you fold and are left with 4 BB's.If you bet 3k and are raised 6k, you call miss/fold you are left with 2BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit/bet you have 16BB's.If you bet allin you are called/miss you are left with zero BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit you have 16 BB'sBoth of the best choices include betting 3k. At this stage in the tourney what is the potential/immediate cash loss from 5BB's to 2BB's?THE END

They are the best results, not the best choices. Apply the low probability of actually winning the hand to the prize equity calculation based on the chip stacks and I cant believe this is a good play.