turn play vs a tag

[screech 0]

Villian is a TAG who I have a bit of history with. I love to steal his blinds. I've done it in the past quite a bit, and now I'm doing it on 2 seperate tables. He usually never plays back at me pf, so when he does, I usually take it as an sign of strength.His stats are 22/17/4.5 over 3000 hands.Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cxPreflop: Hero is Button with 8:diamond:, 9:spade:. 2 folds, Hero calls.Flop: (6.33 SB) 8:club:, 9:club:, T:heart: (2 players)BB bets, BB calls.Turn: (5.16 BB) A:club: (2 players)BB checks, Hero betsGood/bad?Why?

[pokerplayer24 0]

Good, he makes that play with any A and its pretty unlikely you're behind because he didn't 3 bet you on the flop. I really dont see this as a being a semi bluff unless he holds like KJ but i'd expect someone that agressive to be 3 betting the flop.

[Canada 0]

Very thin.If he connects with that flop in anyway he should keep charging because it is so draw heavy, however it is heads up so some FPS with sets etc might be tempting.He wakes up on the Ace so he either likes it or is not scared by it and this board is good for a lot of hands that 3-bet you preflop.You're not folding a better hand and if you call the turn raise he will likely lead the river providing you value if you're ahead.If you're behind you may even be drawing dead.All in all I call downYou folding if he caps?

[pokerplayer24 0]

Vs someone with a 4.5 aggression factor you dont think hes making this raise with any A?

[TheCinciKid 0]

I don't have much experience at six-max and have very little success at higher levels, but I'll give this a shot.I like the turn 3-bet, my read would be that he has some sort of Ace. The only thing I'm really afraid of here is a better two pair, but based on his stats and your read I'd guess he has something like AK-AJ. Maybe AT, which would be the only one of his hands that I'd be afraid of.

[justblaze 0]

3 bet is fine, he could EASILY have AxKc. i bet-call river for any brick, and check-call a dangerous card.

[screech 0]

1) He's probably going retarded on the flop if he has a flush draw (QJs and up)2) That is a good semibluffing card for him if he has the Kcx/Qcx3) He wants to get back at me4) Most of the trouble hands that have me beat (sets, higher 2 pair, straigh, flush), put a lot of bets in on the flop5) A big ace will frequently play this way

[DrZebra 0]

if he has small clubs or AT i don't think would 3-bet the flop

[iggymcfly 0]

I don't like the three-bet on the turn. On this hand, there are just so many hands that could have you beat. To wit:Likely raising hands you're ahead of right nowA-KA-QA-JLikely raising hands you're behind right nowA-8A-9A-10J-QA-Aany flush (it's not likely, but it is possible)Furthermore, if you're behind, you're likely drawing slimmer than he is if you're ahead, not to mention that you could easily get capped on the turn.To me, it just looks you're much more likely to lose an extra bet by raising than you are to gain one.[/u]

[screech 0]

if he has small clubs or AT i don't think would 3-bet the flop

I don't think he plays small clubs for 3-bets pf.

[KDawgCometh 2]

screech, its cool. I'm pretty sure that this guy would've pounded you on the flop if he flopped a straight. This looks alot like AJ to me, or AQ. He would go off like this with those types of redraws IMO(PM me his SN, I lost my old DB cause it got corrupted, but I do remember a lot of weak tags off the top of my head)

[screech 0]

I don't like the three-bet on the turn. On this hand, there are just so many hands that could have you beat. To wit:Likely raising hands you're ahead of right nowA-KA-QA-JLikely raising hands you're behind right nowA-8A-9A-10J-QA-Aany flush (it's not likely, but it is possible)Furthermore, if you're behind, you're likely drawing slimmer than he is if you're ahead, not to mention that you could easily get capped on the turn.To me, it just looks you're much more likely to lose an extra bet by raising than you are to gain one.[/u]

He'd definelty play AK/AQ/AJ this way.I don't think he's 3-betting JQ/A8/A9 pf here (maybe A9s). Like I said, I have been constantly steeling his blinds, and he only plays back at me pf with a strong hand. I think he's often 3-betting the flop with AA. He's aggressive, and likes to play his good hands fast. AT he could play either way.Based on card combos, yeah, I'm mathematically behind. Based on the way he plays each combo, I think I'm pretty far ahead.

[AceJackOffS 0]

imo this is an either or situation. WA or WB. I like calling the turn and reevaluating on the river.but it does sound like you have a lot of history with this player. go with your read.so whats the result?

[screech 0]

Villian called my turn 3-bet. River was a blank. Check-bet-call.Villian mucks AQo and I win.

[DCWildcat 0]

Aggro of 4.5? IMO, this isn't close at all. 3-bet every time.

[Canada 0]

Based on card combos, yeah, I'm mathematically behind.  Based on the way he plays each combo, I think I'm pretty far ahead.

I agree that the way he plays his hand indicates you are more likely to be ahead and the standard argument is that you need to be ahead 66+% of the time here to make this a value bet, and betting for value is your only reason to raise here.However on a board like this you have 4 outs at best if you are behind ie drawing pretty thin.On the other hand if the villain is behind they are likely to have a massive number of outs for redraws.AK with no club has 8AxKc has 16AQ with no club has 12AxQc has 19!AJ with no club has 16AxJc has an incredible 22 outs!!This seriously adds to the need for you to be ahead. Its probably close to 80% now unless you can fold to a cap on the turn or a c/r on the river.Are you 80% sure your villain doesn't have 88,99,TT,A8,A9,AT,AA,JQ or 2 clubs?

[screech 0]

Interesting.I don't have time right now, but I'll work out some numbers later. Maybe I'm not right. :shock:

[Canada 0]

Interesting.I don't have time right now, but I'll work out some numbers later.  Maybe I'm not right. :shock:

I think it's actually a lot closer than most have realised.Overall I think you have a lot of advantages that make your line correct.1) you have position2) the way he played the flop3) your read is solid (3000 hands - datamining much? )4) you've been picking on him, stealing his blindsbut the single biggest advantage you have is that you personally had the history with him so you know best how he acheives the insane 4.5 af

[screech 0]

*I've grouped TT/99/88 together. Not many combos, and villian is unlikely to play these hands this way. I've also disregarded our equity vs 88 to make the math simpler.(card combos) [discounted combos] {% of combo} <% equity>AA - (3) [1] {2.5} <0>KK - (3) [2] {5} <63.6>AKo - (9) [9] {22.5} <81.8>AKc - (3) [3] {7.5} <63.6>AQo - (9) [9] {22.5} <72.7>AQc - (3) [3] {7.5} <56.8>AJo - (9) [5] {12.5} <63.6>AJc - (3) [1] {2.5} <50>AT - (9) [3] {7.5} <9.1>A9 - (6) [2] {5} <4.5>TT - (5) [1] {2.5} <0>QJs - (4) [1] {2.5} <9.1>According to this, I win at showdown ~ 57% of the time.I have an equity edge, I should push it. Even if you take more conservative numbers, my equity is above 50%.Granted, I am risking getting capped/raised on the river, but there are only a small number of hands that do this. Plus, if a very bad card falls on the river, I can simply take the free showdown if it's given to me. This is not a situatoin where I have to be good 67% of the time by showdown to cap. But the risk of getting raised now or on the river does make it close.

[Canada 0]

*I've grouped TT/99/88 together.  Not many combos, and villian is unlikely to play these hands this way.  I've also disregarded our equity vs 88 to make the math simpler.(card combos) [discounted combos] {% of combo} <% equity>AA -  (3)  [1]  {2.5}  <0>KK -  (3)  [2]  {5}  <63.6>AKo -  (9)  [9]  {22.5}  <81.8>AKc -  (3)  [3]  {7.5}  <63.6>AQo -  (9)  [9]  {22.5}  <72.7>AQc -  (3)  [3]  {7.5}  <56.8>AJo -  (9)  [5]  {12.5}  <63.6>AJc -  (3)  [1]  {2.5}  <50>AT -  (9)  [3]  {7.5}  <9.1>A9 -  (6)  [2]  {5}  <4.5>TT -  (5)  [1]  {2.5}  <0>QJs -  (4)  [1]  {2.5}  <9.1>According to this, I win at showdown ~ 57% of the time.I have an equity edge, I should push it.  Even if you take more conservative numbers, my equity is above 50%.Granted, I am risking getting capped/raised on the river, but there are only a small number of hands that do this.  Plus, if a very bad card falls on the river, I can simply take the free showdown if it's given to me.  This is not a situatoin where I have to be good 67% of the time by showdown to cap.  But the risk of getting raised now or on the river does make it close.

Nice work. i do agree that it's not necessary to be good 67%, but look at this...I think you would probably check behind on the river if a scare card comes, yes?Scare cards 3 Aces, 4 Kings, 4 Queens, 4 Jacks, 3 Tens, and 2-7 of clubs.24 cards out of 46 (27 if you think you'd check behind on the 3 remaining 7's). Keep it simple and call it 50% of the remaining deckSo when you win the hand you win 1 bet on the turn and 1 bet 50% of the time on the river (assuming he always calls...)Total 1.5 betsWhen you lose the hand you will be capped on the turn 10% of the time using your figures (AA 2.5%, TT 2.5%, QJ 2.5% and ATc 2.5%)I'll assume that you don't fold to a cap and might fold to a river lead for 10% of river cards.Therefore when you lose with this line 9% of the time you lose 3 bets, 81% you lose 2 bets, 10 % you lose 1 bet (i'm assuming it doesn't get check through when he wins - cancels out the assumption that he always calls on the river above)Over all you win an average of 1.5 bets and lose an average of 1.99 bets.Therefore you have to be in front a total of....Wait for it...57.02% !! - Just call the turn You may have guessed that that last bit was for shits and giggles, but I think we have shown that we're looking at what is very close to a 0 EV situation and you have wasted everyones time by posting it

[screech 0]

Wait for it...  57.02% !! - Just call the turn  You may have guessed that that last bit was for censored and giggles, but I think we have shown that we're looking at what is very close to a 0 EV situation and you have wasted everyones time by posting it

I have nothing but time to waste.