river raise with ak

[screech 0]

You're at least calling here right?

no.aseemedit: i'll clarify. i think calling is horrendous. if your question was "you're not folding, right?" then my answer is "i probably am." that said, i think folding >> raising >>>> calling. in other words, i still say that raising is spewing, *but* if you don't want to fold, raising is the better alternative.

Now all I have to do is convince you calling is better than folding. :wink: If we put this unknown on AA-TT, AK, and AQs (including the combos where he beats us with a flush), he will have AK and AQs (no flush) about 34.4% of the time based on card frequency.If this were a passive player, the 34.4% plummets, because it is unlikely that he would bet UI AK/AQ this way. However, given villians stats, he obviously prefers betting/raising to checking calling. It is very probable that he has AK/AQ because of these stats. Obviously, it is less likely that he has these cards because of his betting pattern, but we can't discount it completely. I've seen many players an AF of less than 1.5 bet AK UI all the way to the river. I think a good estimate of his holding AK/AQs would be about 20%.

[screech 0]

On another note, I'm not too fond of the flop bet out. If button raises MP out of the hand, then You don't have the flop equity needed to make that +EV for Your 10 outer. With a PostAF of 3.75, I think he's raising Your bet almost all the time after 3 betting preflop.

I don't like my flop bet either.

[akishore 0]

On another note, I'm not too fond of the flop bet out. If button raises MP out of the hand, then You don't have the flop equity needed to make that +EV for Your 10 outer. With a PostAF of 3.75, I think he's raising Your bet almost all the time after 3 betting preflop.

I don't like my flop bet either.

you should.aseem

[screech 0]

you should.

Really? Why?Button will bet anyway, and MP1 will call if he has:a) a gutshotB) overcardsc) a pairIn the case of a, my bet will protect against gutshots that don't contain two overs.In b, I'm probably not going to protect against anythingIn c, a bet and raise may get MP1 to fold a pair lower than tens. Maybe betting is better. I'm too tired to think.How do you fold this river given villians stats and the card frequencies I explained in a previous post?

[akishore 0]

screech, read my above posts about increasing winning chances.this is a visibily big pot. folding any hands in case you're tying/ahead vs Button, folding any hands that will have redraws if you turn the best hand, ..... etc is a very good thing.i'm still thinking about the river.aseem

[JaysonWeber 0]

check/calling this river is really easy here.What is he folding here if you check/raise? Hands you have beat, that's it.Just check/call

[screech 0]

What is he folding here if you check/raise?

AK is what I'm really trying to fold here. He may even fold a hand like 99 if he prides himself in making good reads.

[JaysonWeber 0]

We have AK as well, so it's very likely that he has AK, he's paying off on the river w/ nearly any of the cards in the range that he takes past the turn. Most of these hands have us beat.

[Actuary 3]

I gotta post my gut re-action first.Then go and read all you smart people's responses.Screech, I'm guessing you won this.Villan is Tag, with a capital T. The other numbers support that he only plays very strong hands..and stays on the gas. Do you have his WtSD% ? and did you utilize that in your read?He'd have to be an idiot to fold here; and his stats don't indicate that.He's getting 14.25:1He value bet the river against 2 others (or do you think he bet the river hoping to fold AK?...) I just don't think he has AQs enough here.I don't like it..risking 2 to win 12.25.Screech..you are very cerebral so I look forward to returning to the thread to see your explanation.

[screech 0]

We have AK as well, so it's very likely that he has AK, he's paying off on the river w/ nearly any of the cards in the range that he takes past the turn. Most of these hands have us beat.

That still leaves 9 combos for AK and 6 combos for 99. That means he has AK around 25% of the time and 99 about 15%.How often do you think he pays off with 99?What about AK?How often does he have to fold these hands for raising to be profitable?

[screech 0]

Do you have his WtSD% ? and did you utilize that in your read?

It was 33%. Don't read too much into it, as it takes a lot of hands to get a good accurate number.I have some numbers that I'll post later.

Villan is Tag, with a capital T. The other numbers support that he only plays very strong hands..and stays on the gas.

His high AF is good for this play, because it makes it more likely that he'd bet UI AK here. and more likely that he'd fold a hand like 99. He hates to call.

He'd have to be an idiot to fold here; and his stats don't indicate that.

A lot of people would have a hard time calling with AK here. If I posted this hand from villians perspective, and gave him 99, I know that there are a few posters here that probably share similar stats to villians that would say to fold the river because of their reads.

[JaysonWeber 0]

hand range:AK-AQ, AA-99.Combos:AK = 9 combosAQ = 12 combosAA = 6 combosKK = 6 combosQQ = 6 combosJJ = 3 combosTT = 3 combos99 = 3 combostotal is 48+ 12 25%- 27 56%0 9 18%0% a better hand is folding25% he folds AK (4.5% overall)12/2 so 6-1 or 16%not happening10% of the time he calls with AQ. (1.8% overall)It doesnt look good-Chris

[Actuary 3]

Quote: Villan is Tag, with a capital T. The other numbers support that he only plays very strong hands..and stays on the gas. His high AF is good for this play, because it makes it more likely that he'd bet UI AK here. and more likely that he'd fold a hand like 99. He hates to call. Checking does nothing to the PFA, right?It's (Bet+Raise) / Call. I think the hi PFA combined with super tight VpiP, indicates he plays great starting hand, more so than he pushes any hand that he decides to play. I cant add much.

[wrto4556 0]

I think villian would have to fold AK nearly 100% of the time or call with AQ way more than he should to make raising the river better than calling.also, I missed 3 combos of 99. The math is a bit skewed.

[screech 0]

Here's what I came up with. Let me know if you think I'm off with the weighted probabilities of hand ranges.I don't think villian 3-bet AQo often, so I'll assume there are only 4 combos (AQx) instead of 9. Here's the range:AA - 3 combosKK - 3QQ - 6JJ - 3TT - 399 - 6AKx - 8AcKc - 1AQs - 2AcQc - 1AQx - 4Since is less likely to play 99/AKx/AQs/AQx this way, I'll reduce the combos somewhat:AA - 3 (10%)KK - 3 (10%)QQ - 6 (20%)JJ - 3 (10%)TT - 3 (10%)99 - 2 (6.7%)AKx - 5 (16.7%)AcKc - 1 (3.3%)AQs - 1 (3.3%)AcQc - 1 (3.3%)AQx - 2 (6.7%)Total - 30EV of calling:0.167(5.625) + 0.10(12.25) - 0.733(1) = +1.43BBSo clearly calling is profitable.To find out the probability that he folds AK that makes EV raising = EV calling, let the probability that he folds AK = p. Let's also assume that he'll fold 99 10% of the time, and that he folds AQx 0.5p % of the time.EV of raising = calling:0.167p(12.25) + 0.167(1 - p)(5.625) + 0.10(0.5p)(12.25) + 0.10(1 - 0.5p)(13.25) + 0.1(0.067)(12.25) - (0.9)(0.067)(2) -0.666(2) = 1.431.06p = 0.53p = 50%Therefore villian only has to fold AK here 50% of the time. These numbers are skewed against raising. If we felt villian would not play AQo this way, and would fold 99 a bit more, the p value decreases to around 30%.I'm not saying my raise was correct. You have to judge how often villian folds AK for yourself. I'm just saying that it's a lot closer than most people give credit for. Also note that you must be up against a player capable of playing AK this way. Against opponents that aren't very aggressive or aren't capable of folding AK here, this play is just a pure spew. There are a few situations in hold em where you have AK and can put your opponent on UI AK a fair percentage of the time, where a river raise with ace high is correct. I'm not saying this is one of them, but they are out there. The point of this thread was to open people up to this idea. Just don't get carried away with it. :-)

[screech 0]

Quote: Villan is Tag, with a capital T. The other numbers support that he only plays very strong hands..and stays on the gas. His high AF is good for this play, because it makes it more likely that he'd bet UI AK here. and more likely that he'd fold a hand like 99. He hates to call. Checking does nothing to the PFA, right?It's (Bet+Raise) / Call. I think the hi PFA combined with super tight VpiP, indicates he plays great starting hand, more so than he pushes any hand that he decides to play. I cant add much.

Exactly.He will bet/fold AK UI on the river as opposed to check/call or bet/call more than most players.

[wrto4556 0]

also, you only have 90 hands on this guy and i will bet money once he bets the river the value of his hand went higher. Checking behind with AK will not mess up his aggro factor.

[screech 0]

also, you only have 90 hands on this guy and i will bet money once he bets the river the value of his hand went higher. Checking behind with AK will not mess up his aggro factor.

That's true. I tried to take that into account by estimating only 5 combos of AKo instead of 9. I could be off with this estimation. It may be as low as 2.Again, I'm not saying my river raise was correct. The numbers I used were very arbitrary, and change drastically from opponent to opponent, opinion to opinion. I just wanted to show there are some situations where raising the river w/ UI AK is correct if you feel there's a fair chance your opponent has the same hand (and would play it that way). The conditions that have to be met are:1) The pot is big2) You can narrow down your opponents hand range to a few hands3) AK makes up a fair percentage of those hands4) Your opponent will fold AK on the river to a raise a good portion of the time.

[guinevar 0]

Later, I'll try to find one of the hands where I value-bet with king high against some serious maniac-donks. It is way fun.Nice hand though, screech. It encouraged some good discussion.

[Actuary 3]

What are you doing with a 3-bet?Any chance he 3-bet AK here?that would suck

[screech 0]

What are you doing with a 3-bet?Any chance he 3-bet AK here?that would suck

I got 3-bet and folded.If he's capable of 3-betting AK here, more power to him.